BREAKING NEWS REGARDING PRIX DE L'ARC DE TRIOMPHE Novellist temperature after German Derby!! All was not well with the horse which explains why he struggled to pass a horse he beat five and half lengths easily last time. We are still extremely confident that the horse is the second best 3yo in Europe after Camelot. The Arc dream is still alive.
It's a great pity that these ailments can't be detected before they race. As we know, these horses will try their hardest however they feel. Hopefully he'll be OK and get to the Arc in top condition. I will be there and hope to see him. Sea Moon is the one I'll be on though.
It is difficult to see any three-year-old winning the Arc this season and even less probable that the Germans will win back-to-back runnings, but I wish Novellist’s supporters well. As I have stated previously, the betting on the race is totally dominated by Camelot, who is not an intended runner according to the most recent stories from Ballydoyle. When he is removed from the betting, current 8/1 shot St Nicholas Abbey will half in price as will current 14/1 shots Sea Moon and Valyra. I have put a small bet on Sea Moon at 14/1 before the King George as a good performance at Ascot will see his odds contract, with the owner currently having only three entered at Longchamp.
If I was a betting man that's exactly what I would do. In fact if that 14/1 is still available I think I'll have a small ante post in my fictional account.
Sea Moon is still 14/1 with the Magic Sign. After the Eclipse Stakes, winner Nathaniel best-priced 10/1 for the Arc and runner-up Farhh 16/1.
Well it could be a good Arc to go to this year. Sea Moon Nathaniel SNA The German horses and if Camelot runs as well.............................. and dare I say, if it's soft and Great Heavens is supplemented (I'm assuming she isn't entered).. My mouth is beginning to water.
Yep. I couldn't get out of it if I wanted to. After last year Amanda decided we are definitely going again this year. The only way I might not go would be if all our challengers fell by the wayside. It would be a pity in some ways if they all met in the KG and we just ended up with one big hope. But then if something cruised up (like Harbinger did) that would be exciting, provided they made it to the Arc.
I would love to go, my aim will be next year, cant wait to take the little man when hes older to events like the arc!
I might have to save up to take Amanda to Royal Ascot next year (in the Grand Stand). Never again in the Silver Ring. Might even have to take the wife along too; as long as we can get someone to look after the horses, dog and cats.
Im still do to royal ascot, im going to the shergar cup this year, will be intresting all girl team. Ive gone to most major jump meetings not many flat though!
I think I've only ever been to 3 jump meetings in my life: Cheltenham to see Pendil Kempton to see Pendil on his return to the course Ascot where my wife backed Fisherman's Cot and it won at 20/1.
I am progressing with this, but at a painfully slow pace. Trying to get Betfair SP data is very tricky. Also, does anyone have Timeform ratings (on the day of the race) for Arc fields from 2004 onwards?
Just a side question to the plot here. Imagine you are AOB. Someone says 'listen, who would be better suited to the St Leger and who would be better suited to the Arc? Between Imperial Monarch and Camelot' What would your reply be?
My reply would be that the bosses need a new stallion to take over from Montjeu. If Imperial Monarch runs and wins he becomes a National Hunt sire worth peanuts a pop. if Camelot runs and wins he becomes the Triple Crown winner and his stud fee would be astronomical. That's all there is to it i think.
My reply would be "It depends on the ground" On a decent surface I would send Camelot in the expectation that he would win and boost his stud value. On a heavy surface he would have no chance so I would send IM in the hope that he would win and then get beaten by Camelot on decent ground.
Cheers Ron. I now have all Timeform ratings from 2004 onwards and all BSP (or last price matched) for the same period. The BSP stuff was a nightmare to get.
