A bit of perspective...

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CorteseIsOurLeader

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Jan 30, 2011
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Ok so after the dissapointing result yesturday I was having a browse over an old saints programme this morning and noticed something a little worrying. If we look at our previous results against the teams we have to play in our last 5 games (not including Bristol Rovers in this!) then there is a worrying trend:

Brighton (A) - 1-1 Draw (and Davis made a cracking penalty save!)
Hartlepool (H) - 0-0 Draw
Brentford (A) - 2-0 Loss
Plymouth (A) - 1-0 Loss
Walsall (H) - 1-0 Loss (Yes I know we battered them but theres only one stat that matters)

So what am I getting at... well I think the Rochdale game last night was a perfect example of the psychological boost the opposition gets when they have got a result against us previously.

Therefore do I think our beloved Saints will struggle with the mental pressure... actually no I think we will do enough to go up but I think it is going to be very very tight.

So here's my question to fellow Saints fans (and probably that Gillingham lad too) how do you see the run in going? I'm going to put my neck out and say that we will finish like this:

Bristol Rovers - Win
Brighton - Draw
Hartlepool - Win
Brentford - Loss
Plymouth - Draw
Walsall - Win (Think we will get promoted last day - nice and dramatic - Classic Saints <party>)
 
3 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss = 11 points. We'd finish on 85. Would that be enough.... It means Huddersfield could pop us to second with 4 wins and a loss.
 
i think if say Brighton are away to Walsall at the weekend, i dont think they will win that and could see them drawing that, Therefore a win for you against Rovers, will mean that they can win it against you the following week.............
 
Hudders have some tricky games coming up (Mk dons away and Brighton away are the 2 that spring to mind) so I reakon they'll drop a good few points in the run in. Think Peterborough are a bigger threat tbh
 
Saints average for the season 1.85 points per game which means on average another 11 points from 6 games making a total of 85 points. Huddersfield 1.80 points per game on average should finish with 83. Posh should on average should finish around 80 points. It is still in our hands, there is all sorts of equations to get those 11 but that is going to be a minimum I reckon..........COYS
 
Hi All. Thought I'd finally give not606 a try and see what I think. I think the consequences of yesterday's defeat - ie the WUMMage currently on 606 - finally did it for me. Just can't hack those WUMs anymore.

Any way, my perspective following yesterday's defeat would be to look an updated version of at a statistic which I posted on 606 following our last defeat prior to yesterday, away to Walsall:

Leaving his first game in charge vs MK Dons to one side, we have followed up every league defeat under Adkins with a victory.

(He'd only been in charge for a couple of days before that MK Dons defeat, so it's fair to leave that to one side).

2-0 away defeat vs Huddersfield
Followed up by 2-1 home win vs Oldham

3-2 away defeat vs Carlisle
Followed up by 4-1 home win vs P'boro

2-0 home defeat vs Brentford
Followed up by 4-1 home win vs Huddersfield

2-0 away defeat vs Tranmere
Followed up by 2-1 away win vs Exeter

1-0 away defeat vs Walsall
Followed up by 2-0 away win vs Colchester

2-0 away defeat vs Rochdale
Followed up by...
 
We have been excellent at bouncing back after a defeat so I'm not too disheartened going into the final 6 games. We SHOULD win all 3 home games but the away games will all be tough. One positive about the away games is that all 3 sides could have nothing to play for- Brighton are already promoted, Brentford are mid table with nothing to play for and Plymouth could be relegated by the time we play them.

I think we'll get 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from the last 6 games. That would give us 87 points which should be enough.
 
We should ban looking at the table till the end of the season.
Players and fans alike just need to get their heads down and concentrate on each game at a time.
Block out any nonsense of how many points we need and blah blah blah.
If from now we just win then win and so on, we get promoted simples ( I realise it won't be that simple especially when Saints are involved )
In some ways a defeat is not a bad thing, as any winning streak pressure is now off, and I hope the players are relishing the chance of playing as underdogs against Brighton. COYR!!
 
I wrote a few weeks ago on 606 - the minimum likely needed to secure promotion is 86.

I will not bore you again with the statistical analysis, but the numbers don't lie. Anything less will leave us relying on the other teams dropping points.
 
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