2.05 ELUSIVITY ought to be suited by conditions and I expect a bounceback at an e/w price. SPIRIT QUARTZ I like but will wait for better ground and oppose today. DEAUVILLE FLYER 20/1 rates as the interesting e/w angle of the day t3.25 in Haydocks testing conditions.
The best bet for me today is ATLANTIC SPORT 7-2 2.20 Haydock. Beat most of these last time out at Ascot and has conditions that suit today. On a very generous mark right now and will take advantage. With regard to the TRADE COMMISSIONER debate the big factor last time was dropping back to a mile. He thoroughly deserved the hike in weights and will still be too good for these. In the Eclipse I really like CITYSCAPE and Nathaniel and cant split them for betting purposes. I can also see Crackerjack King running a huge race. I laughed about Bonfire before the Derby and I am laughing at him again for the Eclipse. The horse has done nothing to warrant being fancied for either race!
please log in to view this image 26/05/12 YORK 12 furlongs. Gd/Frm 1 of 16 7/2f tfig 105 rat 123 Kieren Fallon FRANCISCAN fitter for reappearance (like most from yard this year), has impressive strike rate courtesy of his bit-by-bit progress, a trend set to continue for a while yet, did well to pull it out here, bit up his sleeve; mid-field, had to wait for gap then took time to gather full momentum, finished strongly, led close home; ideal type for Old Newton Cup (2 from 2 at Haydock), and will stay 1¾m later on when required.
Off to Sandown today, where I plan to get off the mark in the second race, on Andrew Balding's Night Carnation. He's won here before - this race, in fact - has a decent draw in 4 on the most draw biased sprint track outside of Chester, and has shown enough in his last two runs, at Ascot and Newmarket, to suggest he has trained on at and retains his ability. Can't decide yet whether to back Nathaniel in the Eclipse. I'm no paddock judge, so when he enters the parade ring I'll be watching for the crowd reaction as much as anything, plus the body language of connections. If John Gosden and William Buick both look happy and relaxed, it'll either be because today is not expected to be the day for last season's King George winner so there's no pressure on, or because Starscope's just won the Listed race for Fillies. I do have some liabilities in the Gp1 though, having backed Cityscape in the place market on Betfair before SYT came out. I've also laid Farhh, who is imo a false favourite, on the basis of a sxu[pposedly unlucky run in the Prince of Wales stakes at RA. Napoleon reputedly asked one question about his generals - "is he lucky?", and I've often found that the diminutive Corsican's principle applies equally well to horses as it does to warriors; oppose the unlucky ones. Cavalryman in the marathon can ensure Frankie doesn't go home empty handed.
Had to rewind the Morning Line to double check what Jim McGrath said re the Newton Cup. The comment I picked up on was "Can't get away from the favourite". This was a bit disappointing for me given that this horse doesn't even figure in the Timeform 123 on ATR "Number Theory and Tmaam are closely matched on their meeting here last month and are respected, while Cumberland Plate winner Lexi's Boy will doubtless be popular, but this valuable prize can once again go to Luca Cumani courtesy of Franciscan, who is defending an unbeaten record at Haydock Park. Timeform 1-2-3 1: FRANCISCAN (12) 2: NUMBER THEORY (11) 3: TMAAM (10)"
They rate six horses within a point of each other Ron...so who has conditions to suit? Joint top are TMAAM & NUMBER THEORY
Morning all A few for me today Farhh wins......easy Number Theory good solid each way bet Humidor taking a bit of a chance with this one but at 20's worth a go, 2.05 San Good luck all P.S. also sticking with my fav jockey atm, 2 rides at Bev' for Danny Tudhope, singles and e/w double
Haydock 2.20 Dubai Dynamo 10/1 2.55 Shimmering Surf 11/2 (NAP) Sandown 1.30 North Star Boy 20/1 2.40 Spas Dancer 10/1
Morining guys jut one frace or me today then im off to the Riverside to watch the mighty England turn over the Aussies and win the one day series (weather permitting) either was it will be a good dayout and if i dont get wet outside i will be wet inside In the Eclipse i think NATHANIEL is one to beat; owever, i also think that BONFIRE 13/2 is better than his last run and im willing to take another chance with him today and make him my NAP for today Good luck to you all
Trade Commissioner looks a stonking bet and I've been toying with lumping on this one in my fictional account. However, I just have a slight doubt about the ground which is causing me to dither. Impressive last time out on good ground and also won here on gf. But in between was beaten into 3rd on gs. That was over 10f but most of Montjeu's progeny seem better suited beyond a mile. If it had been 10f on a sound surface it would have been a no brainer. Can't fancy anything to beat him here but these nagging doubts are enough to make me continue to dither while the price (no doubt) collapses to put me off completely.
Anyone fancy taking 8/13 for a horse with slight jumping problems to get around today ? Thomas Edison will destroy the 5.25 field at Bellestown tonight - if he can get around
LUCKY 15 + ACCY 6/1*- Judge N Jury 14:05 Sandown 9/1*- Dubai Dynamo NAP 14:20 Haydock 16/1*- Kinetica 15:10 Sandown 25/1*- War Poet 15:25 Haydock
I think that it will be just a watching brief in the Eclipse Stakes. I like Nathaniel even though the stiff ten furlongs is probably too short for him. I think that Twice Over is massively over-priced. Farhh could turn out to be the next Halling or Sakhee, but as a punter I would be worried about him losing the race at the start. If Bonfire does not get in the shake-up, that is the final nail in the coffin for the three-year-olds for me.
15:45 Sandown - Cityscape (Very good form if one can excuse his run at Shatin LTO, where he started slowly, ran into all sorts of traffic problems on this RH dogleg track, eased accordingly, but still finished not so far behind the eventual winner. Should just about get the Eclipse trip, and suited by the softened going). Very best of luck today everyone! Selections by members very impressive yesterday!
With the going likely to be soft. I think Nathaniel has an outstanding chance and Bonfire for the place.
Morning all, Love the look of todays racing, very competitive, some interesting looking races. My rags today; 2.20 H - Atlantic Sport 2.55 H - Great Heavens - Changed my mind from Set to Music to this Gosden horse, indecision is usually fatal in gambling, hopefully my switch will be vindicated! 3.25 H - Franciscan - Saw this animal win at York last time out, and was very impressed even though the price was short enough. Think he will go well at a decent price, an improver to keep on side 2.05 S - Judge n Jury - Again, saw this horse back in May at York, and he looked back to somewhere near his top form, few creditable runs since, keeps rising in the weights, but think he could very much be there or thereabouts 2.40 S - Kyllachy Star - Willing to take a chance at a nice price with this one, but Trade Commissioner should take all the beating 3.45 S - Crackerjack King - Previous form has to be taken on trust with this Italian import, but beat Sri Putra well, and this grey has won 7 of 8 starts. He may be being underestimated, and has the ultimate punters pal in Ryan Moore on board. Only downside is Pricewise put this bastard up before I got chance to get a bet on, so 12/1 I should have taken last night shrunk into 8/1! I'm a massive fan of Nathaniel, but think the trip is too short and he will need the run. He'll have a season to remember after this race though Good luck everyone
I couldn't bring myself to whittle my 5 picks down to 4 so have gone for a lucky 31 today instead of the usual lucky 15... Sandown 1:30 - Johnno (NB) 4/1 Sandown 2:40 - Trade Commissioner 5/2 Sandown 3:10 - Arsaadi (NAP) 6/1 Haydock 3:25 - Franciscan 13/2 Sandown 3:45 - Nathaniel 7/2 - Did fancy Fahrr, but i think the draw and the ground now favours Nathaniel plus i'm a sucker for that small bit of extra value. A saver reverse forecast on the two. Good Luck all, except if you are on something else in my races ofcourse
E/W Lucky 31 on the below. I dont have time for write up but I think that all have good chances - good luck everybody SANDOWN 13:30 Sheikh The Reins @ 16/1 (GP) SANDOWN 14:05 Elnawin @ 7/1 (GP) SANDOWN 14:40 Stage Attraction @ 14/1 (GP) HAYDOCK 15:25 Easy Terms @ 10/1 (GP) SANDOWN 15:45 Monterosso @ 12/1 (GP)
