Whatever wins the German Derby will have to win it by a huge distance for him to start much lower than 25/1 in the Arc.
Cant see it myself Boris, doesnt quicken well enough for Arc level. On a side note, is Imperial Monarch due to line up in the Irish Derby?
Would have liked to see an entry from Godolphin or Coolmore in the German Derby so that we could measure Novellist against 'second string' UK/Irish 3 year old colts. The good thing is that the bookmakers will not take immediate action after Sunday's race so 25/1 will still be available should Novellist win by, say, five lengths. I will certainly consider an each way bet in the Arc.
from Nick Mordin NOVELLIST (41) proved that he is an exceptional talent when winning Germany's oldest race, the Group 2 Union-Rennen at Cologne. Held up behind the ordinary early pace, Novellist turned into the 600 metre homestraight four lengths behind the leaders in a race that developed into a sprint finish. I timed the final 600 metres (three furlongs) at 34.5 seconds. Novellist accelerated smoothly to come between rivals and quickly put five lengths between himself and his rivals by the time the line was reached with his jockey doing no more than ride him with hands and heels. He took just 33.7 seconds to cover the last three furlongs. His fastest pursuer took 35.5 seconds. I really liked the way Novellist so readily picked his way between rivals up the straight. Clearly he is not traffic shy. This will be a major asset to him in later races when facing bigger fields. It looked like Novellist could easily have added another two or three lengths to his winning margin. That would put him on the same level as Camelot on my ratings. Novellist is a very good looking, muscular, mature, classy sort. He is a more athletic and nimble horse than Camelot. And he clearly has a tremendous finishing kick. He has won all four of his starts, scoring by five lengths or more every time. I wouldn't want to bet a any three year old against him right now and reckon he could easily be the best horse Germany has produced in years. There is a widely held belief by German trainers that their horses mature more slowly than those bred elsewhere. So they tend to hold them back from international competition until they are four years old. It therefore looks like Novellist will be shooting for the Grosser Preis von Baden rather than the Arc if he wins the German Derby next time out, as he surely should. However if he wins the German Derby this easily his connections will surely find it hard to resist supplementing him for the Arc.
Well good luck with him Boris but that's a bad ante post bet IMHO. He's got to destroy the German Derby field, opt for the Arc, stay injury free, avoid a bad draw and prove he can compete with Europe's best middle distance horses and even with all that I'd be shocked if he's more than 5 points shorter come post time.
I dont think this years Arc will take much winning, SNA isnt going to win an Arc and neither is Sea Moon, take Camelot out of the race and the Japanese horse Orfevre would be my favourite just now with Valyra second choice, outside of those two I really dont see much, Beauty Parlour is class but no reason to think she will reverse the form with Valyra, Snow Fairy has other targets I think, Dunaden and Nathaniel are too slow, and Meandre form looks suspect because the way the race was run. Danedream hasnt backed up her win from last year but id rate her a bigger danger on the day than Sea Moon or SNA. The race looks ripe for a top class 3yo and such is the weakness of the field, I wouldnt be surprised if Camelot did turn up, and he would take all the beaiting, but if he dosent, Novellist could be one of the few top class 3yo colts in the race and id be surprised if he was as big as 25/1 on the day, provided he turns up! My two bets are Novellist 25/1 and Orfevre 16/1
My ante post slip is in tatters Beat Girolamo 5 1/2 easy last time, just gets up to beat it a head today? Strange
In the Racing Post, Aidan O’Brien is quoted as stating that Camelot will only have two more races this year at most – the St Leger and possibly a prep-race. They will not be dropping back to ten furlongs to face Frankel in the Juddmonte International, so if he visits Britain before going to Town Moor, the Great Voltigeur Stakes at York (carrying a Group 1 penalty) may be it. At the time of writing, Camelot is still 5/2 favourite for the Arc on OddsChecker, so the Arc winner is currently trading at much more inflated odds of 8/1 or better.
So if we can be confident of the winner being among our short list of 8, we have (virtually) a free bet?
I like Dunaden for the race and amazed no-one else has really put him forward after his run in the Hardwicke, as I thought he was the horse to take out of the race. Strong finisher over 1m4f and will love the pace they go in the arc. Will need gaps though I think (dependant on the draw), but I have had a bit of the 25's on him for the arc.
I think he lacks a gear in all honesty. I fear he may be one who forever looks 'unlucky' in running by staying on late when he lacks the pace to either get himself a position or get himself out of trouble.
Personally I wouldn’t want to have a bet on the Arc, however classy the horse, until the draw is known. Punters often dismiss such a fact, as the race is run over 12 furlongs, but the solid fact is that this heat is one of the most draw dependant contests of the entire year and normally up to 50% of the field can be dismissed once it is known. I wrote this on the forum after last years renewal of the race and would recommend that punters bear it in mind come October re the Arc: 17 out of the last 19 winners emerged from a single figure draw 12 out of the last 13 winners won a middle-distance Group 1 that season by 2+ lengths
Those are compelling stats Barney. However a stat is a stat, is a stat. In 2013 we could be saying, for example: 17 out of the last 20 winners emerged from a single figure draw and/or 12 out of the last 14 winners won a middle-distance Group 1 that season by 2+ lengths Pretty compelling stats. The stats need to be probed further before we can take them too seriously Eg Who were the 3 winners that bucked the trend and what explanations would there be for those? What horses drawn in double figures were actually expected to win and how well did they do? Were they badly ridden? etc etc.
Number Of Runners: 2011 - Danedream - 16 2010 - Workforce - 19 2009 - Sea The Stars - 19 2008 - Zarkava - 16 2007 - Dylan Thomas - 12 2006 - Rail Link - 8 2005 - Hurricane Run - 15 2004 - Bago - 19 2003 - Dalakhani - 13 2002 - Marienbard - 16 2001 - Sakhee - 17 2000 - Sinndar - 10 1999 - Montjeu - 14 1998 - Sagamix - 14 1997 - Peintre Celebre - 18 1996 - Helissio - 16 1995 - Lammtarra - 16 1994 - Carnegie - 20 1993 - Urban Sea - 23 1992 - Subotica - 18 Mean - 15.95 Purely random distribution of draw numbers you'd expect single figures to win 9/16 or 56.25%. Actual figure is 17/20 or 85%. I'll have a better look at it at some stage.
Looking at these winners, I would say that most of those would have been "expected" to win. Which horses that were fully "expected" to win were beaten solely by the draw? For each year it would be interesting to have for each horse the Timeform rating, the draw and the SP. (maybe the jockey also) and its finishing position. Although there is always the case of horses running below form, unsuited by the going etc we might get some idea of whether the draw is more influential than the relative ability of the horses.
