2.30 Jalaa 9/2 Fits enough of the trends and had a lovely winning introduction at Leicester. Hannon does well in this race recently. 3.45 Society Rock 12/1 e/w He's a really good sprinter by UK standards and goes well on soft and at Ascot. Won this last year, has run a perfectly respectable prep with this obviously the target. The Mare is going to be a hard nut to crack but if she fails I think he'll be there to mop up. 5.35 Simenon 4/1 Won incredibly easily the other day. I have two worries. This ground will be totally different to the good ground of earlier in the week but he does seem to handle it but nevertheless that burst of speed may be limited by it. The second obvious worry is the quick reappearance.
But did you know ROTO that Lightening Cloud was a late withdrawal from the last race today to run in the Wokingham?
Ron tryna spook ROTO out, i doubt he'll be put off, Maarek has served him well, interesting tho Lightening Cloud moved for this race, is possibly a good each way bet, still to make up my mind. I quite like Gordon Lord Byron in the race at 16's, may make a slight investment for interest i shall see when the dawn breaks.
Anatolian 5:00 Ascot: Really keen on this fella's chance tomorrow at the price 9/1, i will be having a decent each way bet as i can't see him not making the frame. 8th on his seasonal reappearance and having clearly needed the blow-out, he looked to be back to something near his best going down a battling neck 2nd to the useful High Jinx LTO at Newmarket over today's trip. The big factor in my reasoning though is this horse will act on good to soft ground and although he now has to carry top weight i'm hopeful they won't kill each other up front and a sensible pace can see us come through late on to sweep the contest and the fact that Frankie is riding is a positive for me as i feel he is a great judge of pace and knows his way around Ascot as well as anyone.
So, Ascot is almost over. Can we finish with a great final day with Black Caviar proving she is the real deal? I would normally say she is very short but the field doesn't even contain half of our top sprinters. Society Rock is a cracking yardstick but for Black Caviar wins this by 4L+ and if there are any tasty odds in the morning on this I will take them. I am backing Godolphin to finish strongly with two horses: LOVELY PASS 8/1 (2.30) Anyone who saw her debut win will know why I am backing her. She fell out of the stalls, veered markedly left, was detatched, yet still won 2.5L eased down. An absolute stack of ability and one of the best moving Godolphin horses I have seen all season. Obviously the worry will be if she has a tardy start again like the last one. However if she can really step up on that green effort she has an excellent chance here today and at the prices looks really interesting. I think this is De Sousa's big chance to really make a mark on the big stage for Godolphin, because at the moment he has been in Dettori and Barzalonas shadow. 5:00 ALKIMOS 16/1 Ran a belter here last season for Luca Cumani on good to soft and that was his best run of the season. He strikes me as the ideal type to excel on soft ground looking at his racing style and his action and I fancy him to stay really strongly at this trip. Camborne was flattered at Doncaster and the 13lb rise should find him out I think. Harrisons Cave hasn't looked particularly good anywhere this season. Spanish Duke strikes me as the sort of horse to enjoy slower ground and he was fabulous at Epsom just over a year ago when hosing up in a good handicap, but I just get the feeling he might get outstayed here. De Sousa and Godolphin at the double for me.
Can I also throw in 3.05 SEA MOON 3/1 as an excellent value price. Like most Stoute horses, he ought to have come on for his return and his victory over Dandino ought to earn more credit because that is an animal who can go very well fresh. The key for me though is the ground. This horse has excellent form on ground softer than good, and absolutely hosed up at York last year against some very good opposition. He is closely matched to St Nicholas Abbey and with the ground in his favour here, you have to say 3/1 is a huge price because St Nicholas Abbey would not be allowed to go off that price against this field, no way. This fella might be an Arc outsider.
Aiken in the 3.05 for me. He is improving at a rate of knots and i dont think he is finished yet. He impressed me with his attitude in his last win over in france on good to soft ground so that shouldnt be an issue. The gosden buick combination is in terrific form and i think this could develop into a live arc contender come the end of the season.
Perfect. Back the top weight and the bottom weight, is what I was taught to do in big field handicaps.
Ascot 2.30 Move To Strike 7/4 The performance this horse put up at the Curragh when winning his maiden was quite remarkable, he looked a real powerhouse that day and id be surprised if he hadnt improved again from that. There are some very promising types in this race but believe me when I tell you, this horse will crush them, we are looking at a genuine Group 1 performer in the making. I would advise everyone to take a bit of the 25/1 with Stan James for the 2000 Guineas because if he is not favourite for that race at around 2.40 today, my name isnt Boris Fenster. Ascot 3.05 Fiorente 28/1 This looks fiercely competitive and I wouldnt be confident enough about any at the top of the market to take the prices on offer so have went for this horse to outrun his odds. He looks to have a huge amount to find on ratings but he has always been a horse who hasnt quite fulfilled his early potential, being a 4yo having only run 6 times, he is still lightly raced and I thought he ran well last time over a trip short of his best in a race that was run in strong time. He is by Monsun and seems to like a bit of juice in the ground so conditions should be ideal for him today and he is still potentially open to alot of improvement, not sure about the cheekpieces but if they liven him up at all I think he can run a big race today for an e/w bet although ultimately, you would be surprised if he managed to win.
Now that's what I call putting your head on the block. It will be a surprise if it doesn't win today and it will be a surprise if it wins the 2000Gns. I presume you are taking the 25/1 now to lay it off after it wins today.
Usual lucky 15 e/w and accy 11/1 - Chilworth Icon (NAP) 14:30 Royal Ascot 25/1 - Calico Cat 15:05 Royal Ascot 12/1 - Maarek 16:25 Royal Ascot 16/1 - Cloudy Spirit (NB) 17:35 Royal Ascot
He will win today, its far too early to say he will win the Guineas, im just saying that 25/1 is a price that should be taken for small stakes as I believe he could be ante post favourite for it after his run today and everyone likes to be sitting on a big price slip about a favourite
Anyone backing things for the guineas now is a mug - I would want 25-1 that he will turn up NAP today MIDSUMMER SUN 5.00 Ascot 14/1
My only bet today is a few quid EW on Calico Cat at 66/1 and 50/1. He's a big improver and ground should be in his favour. He has a few lbs to make up but I don't think the rest set an unattainable standard and he can make the jump.
Taking a price that you think will be cut is just good business, especially for a race like the Guineas, if you are correct and the horse is cut, you will have all the time in the world to lay it off for a free bet or a small profit, I would argue you would be mug if you didnt.
Boris, Bolger said when Dawn Approach ran he was their best ever 2 year old. Move To Strike, if improving on the run last time out, will win today but we aren't looking at the 2000 winner IMHO.
Fair play if you are going to lay it off you must be confident of victory today. I am off to football soon - will miss BC gutted
He never said said, infact he corrected the interviewer who suggested he said that right after the race. Bloger had said long before the Coventry that he hadnt had many better 2yo's than Dawn Approach, that is what he said, and obviously some people have taken that and turned it into hes the best 2yo ive ever trained. And the key thing here is 2yo, dont get me wrong, no reason to think than Dawn Approach wont be a very good 3yo but just wait till you see Move To Strike today, he is a late foal and is a 3yo in the making. Hopefully the horse does the business and Bolger is interviewed as im sure they will ask the question, wether Bolger tells them anything is another matter.
