4.25 Ascot Qaraaba 8/1 NAP I put Qaraaba up as an extremely confident bet on his last start as he duly sauntered home on the bridle and he really seems like a 5 year old destined for Pattern company. After a good 3 year old season and an ok 4 year old season, Qaraaba has really taken off now a 5 year old winning 3 of his 4 starts this year only finding the similarly progressive rival Danadana too good for him 2 starts ago. The day Danadana beat Qaraaba, todays selection was conceding him 3lb as he lost by 1.75L but I certainly think the rain that has fallen will significantly turn the tables on that rival as they race off level weights. Danadana seems like he is at his best on good ground or better and on his last start Qaraaba seemed to absolutely love the soft ground in what was his first on the surface which turned out to be by far most impressive effort to date. The form of the Qaraaba/Danadana race looks absolutely rock solid with both rivals winning on their only subsequent starts. Furthermore the 5th won impressively upped in class off the same mark and the 6th Borug finished a 0.5L beaten 3rd to tomorrows favourite Gatewood. Qaraaba's last start came off a mark of 91 and he couldn't have won any easier. Moreover, the form of that race has worked out really well. The 2nd Dragonera finished 2nd in a Listed contest, the 3rd Maven ran a good 3rd off the same mark and the 5th Bolivia won by 7L off a 4lb lower mark on his only subsequent start. Given the visual display coupled with the form in behind I certainly don't think a 9lb rise to a mark of 101 is beyond him and he definitely looks like a Listed or Group performer. Although this represents a significant step up in Class to a Listed Handicap, I'm very, very confident of a massive showing from Seamus Durack's 5 year old with George Baker taking the ride again. 8.50 Ayr Five Star Junior 14/1 NB Really like the look of Linda Stubbs's 6 year old who looks very well handicapped off a mark of 87. His last 8 starts have come on the AW but I think the return to turf on ideal good to firm ground will get him his first win in 16 months. Since October last year, he has put in some good efforts off much higher marks most notably a 0.31L defeat at Dundalk off a mark of 97 and a 1.25L defeat in 3rd off a mark of 91 where the 1st and 4th have won again since. Five Star Junior's last turf effort actually came off a 2lb higher mark last September in a very hot Class 3 handicap. He came a very good 3L 3rd that day and the form of that race is extremely strong. The 1st, 2nd and 4th all won on their next starts making a replication of this effort more than strong enough to land this in my eyes. I think its very eye catching that he returns to Ayr where has only had one start to date in his career - a victory over 5f back in 2010. Luke McNiff takes the ride on Five Star Junior for the first time and he takes a very handy 5lb off his back. Moreover, its his first ride for Stubbs and he looks an eye catching booking on what is her only runner at the track. Stubbs's last two runners have both finished 2nd and she seems to be hitting form. With a good draw in stall 3, I'm very confident of a very big showing from Five Star Junior and if back to form I think he could take a heck of a lot of beating tomorrow. 5.10 Redcar Broctune Papa Gio 9/1 Really like the look of Keith Reveley's 5 year old who I think can build on his last two very promising runs with a return to the track he seems to love. In his last 7 starts at the track, he has won 3 times and also finished a 1.25L beaten 2nd twice and it is clearly the venue where he reserves his best running. He's had two starts this year, an excellent 2nd at the track on the back of a 6 month break (I was convinced he'd need the run) off a 2lb lower mark and he followed that up with a 1.75L beaten 3rd off this mark at Carlisle on his last start. Both races have extremely strong form and racing off the same mark of 64 as he did last time seems very reasonable on the part of the handicapper. He's 4lb above his last winning mark but his last two efforts certainly indicate to me that he's not far away from winning. Shane B Kelly takes the ride for the first time tomorrow and he takes a very useful 5lb off this 5 year olds back. The trainer/jockey combination have had 1 win from 5 starts and he certainly looks like a positive booking. Keith Reveley seems to have hit form this year and with Broctune Papa Gio landing this race last year I'm confident he can put up a repeat performance, although I'd hope no significant amount of rain falls. 4.10 Market Rasen No Panic 14/1 Got to return from a few shocking efforts, including one yersterday, but I think the return to better ground and Market Rasen could see him coming back to form. There isn't much to go on with recent form, but he's definitely well handicapped as he is 4lb below his last winning mark and also 11lb below winning in 2010. He seems to absolutely love it at the track with a one win, and a 0.31L & 3L 2nds in 4 starts at the track and a return to this venue may spark a revival. Trainer Peter Bowen is in absolutely flying for at present with 7 winners in the past 14 days and its definitely a major contributing factor to me backing No Panic. Although definitely only worth a small bet, he looks overpriced and I hope he can bounce back to form and play a prominent roll in the finish.
A horse jumping out at me tomorrow is CARDIGAN in the 3.45 Coronation Stakes good spot toppy but think Cardigan will be a better jumper !!!!!!!!!! BPG dont think he will run its lashing down here, if he does he places at least stay frosty
Hard not to be impressed by Newfangled on debut, she travelled like a dream and quickened up like a good horse, if you watch her gallop out it was incredible how far she pulled away from the rest of the field, this is a very smart filly who will improve as she steps up in trip but I dont think this is a hot Albany by any stretch and id be dissappointed if the daughter of New Approach didnt win impressivley. I will also be backing Sendmylovetorose 16/1 e/w in here as I was impressed with her first run even though she probably didnt beat much, when the penny dropped she really powered home in soft ground looking as thought she would improve a ton for the run.
Today: 2.30 The Gold Cheongsan - Noseda knows what it takes to win this race having sent out La Chunga and Sander Camillo (both also once raced maidens) to win in recent years. 3.05 Noble Mission 3.45 Samitar - got to follow the form and with Ishvana winning earlier in the week.... 5.00 Estimate - another with a German pedigree
That sponger Hugh Taylor has stolen your nap ROTO. The Coronation was looking like one of the most interesting races of the week a couple of days ago but with no Maybe and Elusive Kate it's lost some of that sparkle for me.
Putting my faith in Haafhd progeny today with the soft ground at Ascot - everything I have left in Ron's comp is on Thunderball in the 5.35. 50/1 at the moment
Good morning ladies and gents. Todays hopefuls. I'll be backing these predominantly in the place only market, with a slight dabble in the win market...just in case!! 2.30 All on red. Got a bit to fins on the book, but likes the ground and 6f. 3.05. Thought Worthy. A bit of improvement puts him right in the picture ith the favourite and when Frankie is riding for his godfather they are always worth a 2nd look!! 3.45. Urish History. Won its maiden very easily, badly hampered lto and eased down. Couls improve and trouble the principals. 4.25. Danadana. Has a chance of notching up the hat trick 5.25. Mias Boy. Well handicapped, won and placed onsoft.....e/w steal!! Good luck all!! Reebok.....excellentstuff in the comp, you're gonna be hard to peg back!!
ROTO: For sure, the crawl early-on wrecked your horse's chances because he certainly appeared to be OK on the ground? Do not like being critical of jockeys either, in fact rarely ever do it, but don't you think the jockey should have kicked-on on this proven stayer when he became aware of the silly early pace? Am picking one of the best ever judges of pace, I know, but I could not remotely imagine Steve Cauthen falling into this trap?
Murtagh kicking on with the pace definitely came across my mind but I'm pretty sure that they would have discussed tactics if that situation had arose so I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt that he was asked to keep him covered up, although pulling that hard he probably should have gone against orders.
Not sure i agree that Astrology had a very bad derby run, I'd think Camelot would do the same to all in this field. Ground should suit better today. Bit strange they've stuck with Moore rather than going back to JP who hasn't got a runner in the race? I think i might give this race a miss, thoroughly confused myself weighing up Astrology vs Noble Mission. Certainly between those two I think.
It'sdifficult enough finding winners at this meeting, without the rain adding another dimension of uncertainty. But surely it's all come right for Homecoming Queen. That is a great shame for Mick Channon, who deserves the change of luck he's had with his 3yold fillies so far this year. Anyway, having backed each of the Channon pair last night, I think I'll reluctantly trade out now and get on the O'Brien mudlark.
Sorry I meant hard race not bad! lol AI know it is strange couldnt work it out. Wont be having a lage wager just something of small interest!
