Thursday 21st June Daily Thread: Day 3 Royal Ascot

5.35 Ascot
Misdemeanour.
Unbeaten as a two year old, she ran really well on her reappearance last month- beaten 4+ lengths off a mark of 85 behind Grandeur in a Class 2 contest at Goodwood. The latter(now rated 99) enhanced the form by narrowly failing to give weight to Wrotham Heath at the Derby meeting, both of whom contest the 5.00 pm better class Group 3 Tercentenary Stakes.
Not many of these boast Class 2 form and Misdemeanour looks very attractive off a mark of 84.
Richard Hughes can't do the weight of 8st so Jimmy Quinn takes the mount.
Betfair's current 35/1 for the win and about 11/2 a place looks worth an each way punt.

 

I gave that a good look Tam, dont think she will stay well enough, the dam was a sprinter but she does look well handicapped and she is a nice horse.

 

Boris, you may well be right about the breeding on the dam's side, but the sire stayed the distance.
I still fancy her to run really well.
PS. I gave up reading too much into breeding when I ignored a French horse which won over 20 furlongs in heavy ground a couple of years ago- bred out of two sprinters.

 

‎3.45 Ascot

Saddlers Rock 4/1 NAP of the festival

Its balls on the line time here. I'm predicting that Saddlers Rock is going to absolutely destroy Fame and Glory. Big statement I know and if I am wrong I will be the first to hold my hands up but I think John Oxx's 4 year old is an absolute machine and I really wouldn't be surprised if he turned this into an absolute procession tomorrow. In terms of the horse him self, this son of the late great Saddlers Wells has only had 7 starts to date and actually only made his debut 13 months ago as a 3 year old. After two distinctly average starts, he's gone on a huge upward curve. After winning a maiden and a handicap off a mark of 87, Saddlers Rock was stepped into Listed company for the Irish St. Leger trial of 14f at The Curragh last August. After being absolutely smashed in the betting, Saddlers Rock was absolutely mullered on the fence in a race I think there was no doubt he would have won with a clear run as he finished 1.5L beaten 3rd. Fame & Glory, who was probably under par that day, finished a neck in front of Saddlers Rock but the then 3 year old would have definitely beaten him with a clear run. Fame & Glory was conceding Saddlers Rock 17lb that day, the vast majority of it for age, but I certainly think over tomorrows longer trip he can overturn that deficit.

Saddlers Rock's best effort to date came when upped to 2m2f for the Group 2 Stobart Cup at Doncaster when he absolutely annihilated one of tomorrows rivals Opinion Poll. Receiving 17lb from that rival, again for age allowances, Saddlers Rock didn't actually travel that well throughout and had to be niggled by jockey Niall McCullough and he was actually outpaced with about 5f to go. However, his undoubted class prevailed in the final furlong as he powered clear close home to score by a convincing 4L. He absolutely loved every yard of the 18f journey and he will relish every single yard of tomorrows 2m4f trip. It was an extremely impressive effort in my eyes and Opinion Poll demonstrated that it wasn't simply he was out of form as he finished 2nd behind Fame & Glory on his next start. After him dismantling a rival of undoubted Group class that day, especially as a 3 year old, I really felt that John Oxx had an absolute machine on his hands. That was his last start as a 3 year old and earlier this month he made an extremely pleasing reappearance on heavy ground at Leopardstown over a 1m6f trip that was definitely on the sharp side. In the 4 runner field, he went down by 0.25L whilst conceding the very progressive winner 10lb and Johnny Murtagh definitely didn't give him a hard time. He's going to come on an absolute tonne for that run and I am sure that Oxx will have been as chuffed as I was with the reappearance.

Now a 4 year old, Saddlers Rock has got to show that he can compete with his rivals without the weight allowances he received last year but he's clearly a much more physically developed horse now. I get the arguments that Fame & Glory's form in the book is far superior to Saddlers Rock and that there is certainly an element of Saddlers Rock needing to progress again to win this but I think this horse is special. This race will clearly be his main target this year and the very shrewd Oxx will have him spot on for this tomorrow. The excellent Johnny Murtagh again takes the ride and I'm extremely confident of victory tomorrow. I've availed of the Racing Post Mobile App offer of a free bet of up to 50 quid if your selection finishes 2nd to Fame & Glory as he clearly is the horse to beat and he may prove to good. I've also backed Saddlers Rock 13/8 W/O Fame & Glory on Paddy Power which will cover my initial win bet in the case O'Brien's 6 year old beats Saddlers Rock. In my eyes, Saddlers Rock represents the only horse in the field that has any chance of beating the defending champion but I'm convinced he can and will. I've had a big, big bet on him and he definitely represents my NAP of the festival.

 

‎5.35 Ascot

Misdemeanour 18/1 NB

Really like the look of Richard Hannon's 3 year old who I personally think has a lot in hand on her handicap mark of 84. This filly has only had 3 starts to date, winning her sole starts as a 2 year old and making a very pleasing reappearance on the back of an 8 month absence last month and I certainly think she has a fair touch of class about her. Misdemeanour made her debut at Kempton last September over 1m when scoring very impressively to win by 2L. After running in snatches, she came into the home straight travelling very well and after receiving 2 firm smacks by Pat Dobbs she responded very well to hit the front and win with a fair bit in hand. It was an extremely likeable debut and she definitely seemed to have an air of class in my eyes. The form of that race looks strong enough with the 3rd rated 82 and the 4th Coquet, who clearly came on a lot for what was a green debut effort over a trip probably on the sharp side, a twice Listed winner and a strong 6th in The Oaks. Although the form of that race is a bit topsy turvy, I really think the visual aspect of her performance was the thing to take away from it as she really asserted close home.

She was soon back in the winners enclosure a month later when landing a Class 4 event on handicap debut off a mark of 80 again back at Kempton and this race really put testament to her character as she overcame virtually everything going wrong. After being a step slow leaving the stalls, she got bumped early on as she made progress after racing a bit keen. After getting pushed along since about 3f out, Richard Hughes had to switch her from the rail in the home straight around horses to the wide outside before giving her a couple of firm hits. She responded almost immediately and I certainly think she scored with a fair bit more in hand than the 0.5L margin of victory suggested as Hughes was only hands and heels riding once he hit the front. The form of that race is no great shakes but it was her attitude to overcome adversity that I really liked and she certainly isn't a filly that shirks when hit with a setback. Again, she showed an air of quality and I though despite the difficulties she faced she had a fair bit left in the tank.

The handicapper raised Misdemeanour up to a mark of 85 after her 2nd consecutive victory and I thought she made a very eye catching and pleasing reappearance after an 8 month break on her turf debut when upped to 10f at Goodwood at the end of last month. After travelling into the race very kindly, she finished a very good 4.5L beaten 4th in the Class 2 event. I've watched and rewatched the race several times and to my eyes jockey Pat Dobbs never touched her once with the whip as she stayed on very well under hands and heels riding into 4th. It looks clear that this was race was just to get a run under her belt as she was never overly tried and again it looked like she had a lot left in the tank. Moreover, she was doing her best work late on and although breeding doesn't scream a step up to 1m4f which she gets tomorrow I think she certainly looked like she would relish it on that run. The form of that race looks very strong with the winner Grandeur finishing an excellent 0.25L beaten 2nd off an 8lb higher mark on his only subsequent start. Moreover the 5th Opinion, the only other horse in the race to have run since, won impressively off a 1lb lower mark on his only subsequent start and in hindsight Misdemeanour's effort was excellent.

I don't know what race the handicapper was watching but somehow he has dropped Misdemeanour 1lb for what I thought was a very promising effort and she now races off a mark of 84. When taking into account her last effort and her win off a 4lb lower mark, I certainly think she looks rather well handicapped. Although the step up in trip is a bit of an unknown, she certainly shaped as if she would stay the extra 2f and it isn't much of a concern to me. She gets in here off a featherweight of 8 stone which should definitely make her life easier around the 12f trip. With Richard Hughes unable to make the weight, Richard Hannon turns to Jimmy Quinn to take the ride and its the jockeys only action of the day. I think Quinn is a very good jockey booking considering the trainer combination yielded 4 wins from 7 starts with 3 year olds last year and it certainly is an excellent statistic to have on side. Although most of the field are unexposed and progressive, the same can definitely be said about Misdemeanour and I think she has shaped as if there is a lot, lot more to come from her. With a good draw in stall 3, I think Misdemeanour has been primed for a big run by Hannon for tomorrow and if staying the trip and getting a clear passage in the 19 runner field I think she could take a hell of a lot beating.

Just noticed Tam put her up as well. Good stuff

 

‎4.25 Ascot

Compton 40/1

I'll try keep this short enough. Only a small bet but I think Ralph Beckett's 2nd string is vastly overpriced as he was a horse that I rated quite highly last year. He won very impressively on debut at Windsor last July over 6f in a race whose form is working out very well. The 2nd, 4th and 5th are rated 98, 97 and 100 respectively. On his 2nd start he came a decisively beaten 3rd behind a horse who I really liked last year but seems to have gone backwards in Rebellious Guest. Nevertheless, the 3rd Mehdi has finished a 1L beaten 3rd in a Group 3 and the form is again strong. On his 3rd start, he ran an excellent 2L beaten 3rd in the Listed 2 Year Old Trophy at Ripon and the 4th Roger Sez has won a Group 3 impressively subsequently so the form of that race is again strong. With his first 3 starts being over 6f, Compton was stepped up to 7f at Kempton in a Conditions stakes and I'm convinced something went wrong that day as he dropped out of contention extremely quickly. The fact he's been off the track since leads me to believe that is the case and you have to ignore that effort. Compton has been gelded since last seen and he makes his handicap debut off a mark of 92 tomorrow. On the basis of his first 3 starts, I certainly think he looks potentially well treated by the handicapper as he is stepped up to 1m for the first time. Although this is a complete unknow, Beckett is a shrewd operator and I certainly trust his judgement. He's been gelded since his last race which could definitely bring about some improvement and although he has a 281 day break to overcome he won very impressively on debut so I'm sure he'll be fully wound up. Jim Crowley hops off to take the reigns of more fancied stablemate Frog Hollow but that had to be expected given there is a lot of speculation about Compton. William Buick is a very good replacement though and I think it is very interesting that the combination have yielded a 23% strike rate on 3 year olds in the past 5 seasons. There doesn't seem to have been any bias so far this week so stall 3 shouldn't be much of an issue. I think a mark of 92 is definitely workable and if improving for the step up to trip then I think he should definitely outrun the price and I certainly don't think landing this is out of the question.

 

8mm of rain overnight, going changed to Good To Soft, more rain forecast throughout the day!

can see some big changes in the markets, Kailani will be backed in the Ribblesdale, 9/1 best price just now

 

Ascot 4.25 Piri Wango 20/1

This is a nice horse I think, put in a very smart performance at Dundalk first time out this season, clocking 1.36.76 for the mile carrying 9-10 off a mark of 89 on what was only the second run of his life. The form of that race has worked out reasonably well so far but it is the time he produced from the front carrying that weight that impressed me, and he backed it up next time when finishing a deceiving 4rth of 5 behind Jersey winner Ishvana giving her 8 pounds. When he won the time before he looked to need every yard of the mile so makes this run look even better, he went off at some gallop and basicaly set it up for the rest who outpaced him inside the final furlong, he was beaten 1 1/2 at the finish but I got the impression that the result could have been different if he was restrained a little. The 2nd that night Slade power went on to beat Es Que Love in a listed race at Haydock with Jersey 4rth Lethal Force in 3rd and of course the winner Ishvana won the Jersey. The time of that race was a fast 1.23.25 as a result of the gallop Piri Wanga set and being quite a scopey horse looking open to more improvement, there is every chance he could be a Group horse IMO. He will probably need to be to win today off 97 and there is a slight doubt about the ground if the rain really gets in but whatever happens today, he is one to look out for.

 

Hills are still going 5/2 against The Fugue. If they hold that price til 10.00, B365 will match it, and give best odds guaranteed. Drifting a little on Betfair (3.4 to lay) but only because others are being backed, and may come in later, allowing a decent trade.

I was totally confident about Fame & Glory, really couldn't see past him, but the write up by ROTO above has sown doubts. May have to throw in a reverse exacta with Saddlers Rock now.

 

In light of the rain, I'm siding with the German-breds today:

3.05 Kailani - 9/1
5.00 Energizer - 11/1

Also think Gulf of Naples is overpriced at 33/1 in the Gold Cup. The trip will not be a problem and he'll like the ground, and he's been improving all season. A small each way I think!

 

"Also think Gulf of Naples is overpriced at 33/1 in the Gold Cup. The trip will not be a problem and he'll like the ground, and he's been improving all season. A small each way I think"


Beat me to it, although I might have beat you to the price if the rain comes again it will be very interesting...

 

Ew Yankee for me today

3.05 Princess Highway
4.25 Prince Alzain
5.00 Grandeur
5.35 Fennel Bay

Good luck all

 

I have seen worse 33/1 shots that Jubilee Brig in the Norfolk. He was an unlucky 3rd to Ceiling Kitty (1st in the Queen Mary) on his debut, then chased home Bungle Inthejungle (4th in the Windsor Forest) at Salisbury before winning impressively at Kempton in a good time. He might be worth a poke EW.

 

Not at ascot but i will be amazed if Takar doesnt win the 7.30 at leopardstown. Johnny Murtagh going back over to ireland to ride it after being at ascot today then will be flying back over here again for ascot tomorrow. Pretty sure he isnt just going for a quick holiday! It should be the best horse in that field by a street and at 13/8 ive had a very big bet as i honestly cannot see it losing.

Also, ive had a decent bet on Mukhadram in the 5.00. His second behind Mariners Cross on debut has worked out well with the winner going on to finish a neck second behind Noble Mission next time out. Mukhadram then won its maiden comfortably enough and i think at 6/1 it is a great e/w bet with hanagan on board.

 

I talk to one of Vows connections oddy, he has always said she wants good ground, and the Irish Oaks is the main target, today is a stepping stone so I wouldn't go in too heavy

 

Clare Balding has said we all might want to have an each way bet on Niceofyoutotellme at 18/1.

 

well I guess it is all about opinions and ROTO has certainly put forward a convincing argument for Saddlers Rock in the Gold Cup. He is probably the most likely alternative winner but I just can't see past Fame & Glory.
He is probably just about my favourite horse in training. He was so unlucky not to win the Derby (he only just lost out to one of the great Derby winners in recent years - Sea the Stars) but since then he has ran well in 2 Arcs, won the Coronation Cup, Ascot Gold Cup and then rounded off the season with another win at Ascot on Champions Day.

He will be ridden once again by Jamie Spencer and the conditions will be the same as last year when he bolted up. Anyway it is a fantastic renewal of the race. Can't wait!

I also like the look of MISTER MARC in the opener, the formline through Dawn Approach could be significant, I think that VOW in the 3.05 will get the track and conditions more to suit her than at Epsom. Finally WROTHAM HEATH in the 5.00 is one of my best bets of the week. He was very impressive on Derby Day and that race had a top quality field.

 

I saw Clare's tweet too! Willie bred it, so must be inside info