If anyone is thinking about backing The Fugue, you should know, this is the Boris Fenster lay of the day, this horse wont be winning tomorrow. The mass public perception was that she should have won the Oaks, the fire was stoked by William Buick saying as much, and the fact that she was favourite which means a lot of people backed her, the majority of them pocket talkers. The formbook even says she was "badly hampered and nearly brought down" and the way some people were going on youd think she got shot at the two pole. Yes she had a little stumble but it happened so far out it was irrelevant, cost her half a length at most and by the time they turned into the straight, she had every chance in the world if she was good enough. 2/1? Should be 6/1 Im laying it to the hilt Thats why they call me Boris Fenster
Good luck Boris! My selections for tomorrow are 2-30 Ahern, 3-05 Princess highway; 3-45 Colour Vision; 4.25 Bronze Angel; 5-00 Mukhradam; 535 Prussian
I think you are wrong as regards The Fugue not being badly impeded in the Oaks. The common misconception (in my opinion at least) was that, because the pace was slow, the lost ground cost her relatively little. I think that could not be further from the truth. It meant that the ground and position lost was more important because she was then in the wrong place in a slowly run affair and trying to close when those in front were quickening. The sectional times show that she was significantly inconvenienced by her position, which was a result of being severely impeded. If the pace had been strong she would have been able to close into horses tiring, making easier to make up the ground. I think she was unlucky not to win the Oaks, but everyone else thinks that as well, and that might mean she is not a 'value' price tomorrow. I haven't studied the race so I cannot comment on the last point. She might be a lay at the price tomorrow but I think she was unlucky in the Oaks.
Zenyatta, im not nearly as confident about this lay as I was about Power Sir Prancealot, Chacha and Carlton House, The Fuge has as good a chance as any in the race but Im a layer at the price all day long. Ripon 5.10 Wicked Wilma 12/1 Looks like another blunder from Bet365, could be close to half the price come the off, I fancy this a bit tomorrow and I think 12/1 is a very fair price.
Oh dear, I have The Fugue. That's not you on the left is it Joe? And I've gone against your banker Should I jump?
Spot on with that assesment Zen, I am not saying she will win tomorrow but she was hugely inconvenienced by being hampered. She lost what was a very good position on the rails and then had to race wide the whole way. The other problem for her was lack of pace. I think she will be a different proposition off a good pace. I am sure the stablemate is not there as a pacemaker but they will be hoping they go a good clip tomorrow. I wont be touching her tomorrow as I feel that there are too many closely matched to be confident. The interesting one in the race for me though is Princess Highway who has good form in front of Was. A couple of bets for me tomorrow; MISTER MARC 2.30 7-1 I dont care if Hughes isn't up, Moore was on him when he won on his debut. They then took on Dawn Approach at Naas and Mister Marc got that one off the bridle. Hughsie knew he was beat and didnt give him a hard race. That formline stands out to me and I think he is great value. PRINCE ALZAIN 4.25 16-1 was more than a little unlucky last time at Epsom in a race that is turning out to be pretty darn good and he will definitely appreciate todays extra furlong. His one dissapointing defeat was when behind Thought Worthy and Noble Mission so I can forgive him that run. I think the handicapper has underestimated this one and I can see his price shrinking between now and post time. I am intrigued by the Gold Cup but have to say *** is not value at evens. Saddlers Rock loves a battle and this could be one titanic duel.
Due to drop another couple of pounds in future handicaps and another poor showing should see that increase. Good luck with it tomorrow but I reckon it's one for "next time".
On what piece of form does Fame and Glory not win tomorrow? It's the third leg of a short priced trio of favourites for me and I'd be staggered if anything can touch him over the marathon trip. Sadler's Rock is well touted but it's easy to overlook his demolition of Opinion Poll last year was aided by a super light weight that day. That 17lbs would 100% have made life much easier for the Irish raider at Doncaster and to be honest I expect the Godolphin horse to prove the greater threats albeit I'd be shocked if they were capable of beating the reigning champion.
I think The Fuge has a favourite's chance but I'm going with Princess Highway who has good form with none of the excuses. Yet
Evening all after some form studying I am going for the following (sorry Stick) 2.30 Ascot IAN'S DREAM 20/1 3.05 Ascot THE FUGUE 2/1 4.25 Ascot PRINCE ALZAIN 16/1 5.35 Ascot SPARKLING PORTRAIT 16/1
Oh no............I have good money on that you lanky geordie gobshite....LOL Great minds ;-) No idea Quel, but possibly the track???
Plenty of time on my hands tonight so been studying. like the look of Kailani in the ribblesdale tho looking at oddschecker so does everyone else. she seems a reasonable price with rain forecast, tho i do think Hazek Lavery, who was behind her at newmarket and close to samitar in the tattersalls millions last year is way overpriced on betfair at 70. Also like a richard fahey double for the handicaps, Chapter Seven in the britannia and Sparkling Portrait in the 5.35. Both 16-1 which is hardly over generous but he seems keen and they will both go in the slop.
You had me worried there Stick. I didn't do my homework. That does look good form behind Dawn Approach. But I'm going to hang on to a view that Dawn Approach is 2.5 months younger than your selection and was an even bigger baby then than he is now. Therefore that form may not be as good as it looks. More worrying is that Cay Verde's conqueror, Englishman, was down the field behind Dawn Approach, beaten 11.5l, although one presumes would have got a bit closer (Steadied after start, held up towards rear, switched right and good headway to chase leaders after 2f, every chance and ridden 2f out, beaten over 1f out, weakened final furlong) and it was a hot race. Cay Verde has beaten both the winner and the third in the Windsor Castle Stakes and is a CD winner. I'll just about stick with Cay Verde but I'm not as confident as I was.
Good point Boris but it is 2lb above his highest winning mark. I will watch the market, that will give the clues!
Watch the Naas race Ron...then you will be bricking it. Hughes gave him the softest of rides once he accepted things.
