The 112th US Open is upon us and what a treat for the players...!!! This is a monster of a course, not in length, but in pure technical terms. This WILL be a test of all the top golfers skills. Last years winner Rory McIlroy swept all before him in gaining a 8 shot lead to score a unbelievable -16 to take the US title in Maryland, but that score line this year will be pure folly... The US PGA like to set up the course to be hard and would be happy for a Evens score to win it so is their obsession with trying to make it as tough a test as possible. Therefore you can at times get a bit of a outsider making the top places, something for the punter to look at me thinks. Graeme McDowell, Lucas Glover, Angel Cabrera have all won this title recently, and none of these were in the top 5 of the betting at the time. Plus sandwiched in between them a Tiger Woods victory in 2008, showing that the top ranked players can but dont always come out on top in this tournament. Tiger isnt that player anymore, even with him finding his touch last week in winning the Memorial, and with his form hit and miss im not going with him. Especially and the current 15/2 price at the moment... Of the 'Big' names at the head of the betting i don't think Rory (14/1) will figure near the end, and is struggling with his short irons at the moment, plus his driving has gone back too being erratic... Lee Westwood (12/1) will have to put like never before on these greens and that's his biggest weakness. Phil Mickelson (20/1) seems to be very hit or miss and hasn't got the title of US Open Champion on his cv yet, so he will be pumped up to get that sorted out. But the one thing i have against him is that he is paired up with Bubba Watson and Tiger Woods and i dont like that at all. The USPGA selection committee will be loving it but that trio could end up in a shoot off as to who can hit the ball the furthest, hardest, highest and they may take there eye away from playing within themselves and posting two good rounds to get into the hunt of winning the thing... I do however have a feeling that you need precision golf and the fact that bogey avoidance is very high on the things to do list with this course makes me think Luke Donald (13/1) will step up and claim the 2012 US Open title. Number 1 on tour for scrambling, 5th for bogey avoidance, 8th for driving accuracy plus he is the world number 1... The 13/1 is short but i will also be going with a few others just in case he dosn't... So looking elsewhere again i will be looking at the golfers who can avoid dropping silly shots, have a good precision with the driving and high scrambling stats... Matt Kuchar is 2nd on the tour for bogey avoidance, 25th in driving accuracy and has the confidence of winning the Players behind him. The year has got better and better for him and i can see him being in the final frame come the end of play on sunday... Dustin Johnson comes here from just winning the recently played FedEx cup tournament at St. Judes and although im not one for backing golfers next time out after they have just won a tournament Johnson has just come back from a 3 month break, due to a back injury, and is obviously high on his win and fresh for the break. He has won previously on these type of greens and course, Pebble Beach being one of them, and my have a great chance of following up on his current good form. Hard to read into his rankings too deep as he hasn't played much but he will be in good form... Justin Rose has all the stats needed to trouble the leaderboard this weekend. He is currently 3rd in both Greens hit and bogey avoidance. His Driving accuracy comes in at a tour position of 19th plus his iron play means that he can put the ball in the correct places on the green... Bo Van Pelt is one that i have said before will spring up and win a big tournament soon. His 7th at the Players had him in contention for all 4 days, finishing -8, so he can produce on tough tricky courses. 4th in strokes gained by putting, plus he is ranked number 1 in puts in the 5-10 feet range... So i will go with the following... Luke Donald @ 13/1... Matt Kuchar @ 28/1... Dustin Johnson @ 30/1... Justin Rose @ 33/1... Bo Van Pelt @ 66/1... Donald a £5 win and £2.50 e/w for the rest... Padpow pay 1/4 odds for top 6... Good luck if your playing...
My fancies are Peter hanson @ 66/1 Martin laird @ 100/1 Simon Dyson @ 200/1 Thomas Bjorn @125/1 Matt kutchar @ 33/1 All £1 E/W
I just withdrew all my money and put it all on Andy Zhang's young shoulders, he may be only 14 but no one will be able compete with this young man, 410 off the tee, best short game i ever seen and hasn't 2 putted since he was 6..GET ON!! On a serious note tho fair play to him. Still browsing through a few facts and figures before i go and put a few squid down for the start tomorrow, goodluck with the picks in so far, no doubt there will be 1 or 2 there come Sunday.
Goodluck all who wager on this tournament Absolutely terrific course - extremely difficult! Even par won the title last time it was held here, incidentally with Kuchar in the Top10 as an amatuer! However, for my bets im going Louis Oosthuizen 2.50ew 60/1 Sergio Garcia 3.00ew 40/1 Geoff Ogilvy 3.50ew 90/1
Ok, after a little deliberation i have done Jason Dufner 25/1 5e/w Ultra consistent of late, will have to up it again tho to win here but capable now proven. Ben Crane 110/1 2.50 e/w Slow but decent ball striker and can keep it in play which is paramount, slight worry on the greens. Lee Westwood 12/1 5w Standout choice of the week tee to green, surely due one week of solid putting. Steve Stricker 50/1 2.50e/w Not at his best lately but good ball striker and best putter on tour which is always help at the US open.
Gents, I will add my picks to the thread so we can cheer each other on over the weekend. Donald - £6.50 win @ 12/1 Fowler - £3.50 win @ 33/1 I have watched the last couple of hours since Donald/Westwood/Rory teed off and oh my god, those opening holes look a nightmare! The Boys aren't playing well at all but this is one tough start to a round. Hopefully things will pick up as they progress along the course. Can't help but feeling that the ones who teed off on the 10th had an advantage though....
Leaderboard after the Carnage of round 1... Leader M Thompson -4 J. Rose -1........... red M. Kuchar E........ red/Jim The Tim J. Duffner +2....... STH R. Fowler +2........ Peter S. Garcia +3........ Smokin L. Westwood +3... STH S. Dyson +4........ Jim The Tim D. Johnson +5..... red G. Ogilvy +6........ Smokin S. Stricker +6...... STH B. Crane +7 ....... STH M. Laird +7......... Jim The Tim L. Oosthuizen +7.. Smokin B. Van Pelt +8..... red P. Hanson +8......Jim The Tim L. Donald +9....... red So what can we say after the first round...? Absolute carnage...!!! I got to watch the last 7 holes of the 'Brit Pack' group and watched in utter disbelief at the worlds top 3 players pulling their hair out and looking like they were playing a totally different game to what they were used to... To be honest i do think the course is ok and a good test but the greens are bordering on stupid. When some of the best golfers in the world cant hold a golf ball on a green from 100 yards then you have to start asking questions... I do agree with you Peter that there is a slight advantage in playing the back 9 first before you attempt the murderous front 6 holes of this course. That run of holes is brutal... Anyway we have to accept it for what its worth, and lets just hope we can get to see some good golf and loads of twists n turns...
Just thought id put up the current odds from the starting odds from Paddy Power... Gives you some idea as to what the bookies think...!!! J. Rose -1........... opened at 33/1.... now 8/1 M. Kuchar E........ 28/1..... now 12/1 J. Duffner +2....... 25/1..... now 28/1 R. Fowler +2........ 33/1..... now 33/1 S. Garcia +3........ 40/1..... now 66/1 L. Westwood +3... 12/1..... now 18/1 S. Dyson +4........ 200/1..... now 300/1 D. Johnson +5..... 30/1..... now 100/1 G. Ogilvy +6........ 90/1..... now 300/1 S. Stricker +6...... 50/1..... now 200/1 B. Crane +7 ....... 110/1..... now 500/1 M. Laird +7......... 100/1..... now 500/1 L. Oosthuizen +7.. 60/1..... now 200/1 B. Van Pelt +8..... 66/1..... now 500/1 P. Hanson +8...... 66/1..... now 500/1 L. Donald +9....... 13/1..... now 125/1 Tiger is top of the market at 5/2... But even as well as he played yesterday your only 1 hole away from throwing 2-4 shots... Good luck to all our bets but i don't think many of us will be collecting...
It's one of the toughest courses they'll play Peter, i know it seems an advantage starting on 9 but they all have to play the same 18 if ya look at it that way, it's just important to not go shooting at pins and realise that par is a good score and if a birdie or two do drop all the better, great nights golf, all the best with our picks for tonight, let's hope we can all make the cut.
Leaderboard after round 2... Three players tied at -1... T9 M. Kuchar +3......... red/jim the tim J. Dufner +3.......... sth T18 J. Rose +4............ red S. Garcia +4......... smokin S. Striker +4........ sth T29 L. Westwood....... sth T59 R. Fowler +8........ peter S. Dyson +8........ jim the tim B. Van Pelt +8..... red Missed cut... D. Johnson +9 M. Laird +9 L. Oosthuizen +9 G. Ogilvy +10 B. Crane +10 L. Donald +11 P. Hanson +13 And so the carnage continues on this course with the lowest score currently sat in the clubhouse at -1par. I didn't get to see any of the golf last night, nor tonight for that matter, but after reading the reports and looking at the scoreboard its a race between Tiger Woods and Jim Furyk... 7 of our picks missed the cut so lets hope for a little bit of lady luck and get one of us into the top 6...
Didn't see any of the coverage last night, went out and watched England then was too drunk when I got in, woke up this morning on the bathroom floor! Looks like my interest is over, but will be cheering on the rest of our picks. Hoping Tiger doesnt win tbh, not a great fan of his. Come on GMac!
Leaderboard after the 3rd round... Leaders at -1 T4 L. Westwood +2..... STH T8 J. Duffner +3......... STH T14 M. Kuchar +4.......red/Jim T18 J. Rose +5........... red T18 S. Garcia +5........ Smokin T32 S. Stricker +7...... STH T47 R. Fowler +9....... Peter T66 S. Dyson +12...... Jim T70 B.Van Pelt +14.... red Saturday is called 'Moving Day' by the media and the golfers and looking at the leaderboard for yesterdays play quiet a few of them did... Most obvious player to have moved is Tiger Woods and a +5 round yesterday wont help him in trying to break his 4 year sabbatical from winning one of the Majors... What we have learned though is that cometh the tough course, cometh the men... Jim Furyk has a outstanding record in the US Open, one now with a little hindsight i should have picked... - and G Mac has shown his liking towards the tough examination of what the USPG like to put in front of these pro golfers each year. G Macs win at Pebble Beach, as course no too dissimilar in design to this one, has put him in good stead for trying to emulate his 2010 win. Of course there is one day to go and i will be tuned in for what is more than likely going to throw up some twist n turns yet... Good luck to the lads with a chance of hitting the top 6 and a return for your money as this has been a tough one to predict...
Chicago town pizza and a pint of milk at 1 the morning to help me stay awake to watch the golf lastnite, well worth it tho, anything can happen tonite but it will be hard to pass the Furyk and McDowell, playing very consistent all week, hopefully Duff can get the e/w money and maybe Westwood can become a live runner to winnig it, Kuchar is capable of making a few birdies to get involved also but i wouldn't expect anyone outside +4 to get involved today really unless everything just falls into place on the day. Anyway, gl to all the bets, should be an interesting final round.
I agree STH, Best i can hope for Sergio is a 67 and maybe sneak a bit of EW money but i cant see it happening. I was going to have a bit on colsaerts and westwood today but... Instead i have focused on the 2 balls today: Wittenburg 7/2 - Ok, i know he's up against Woods but this guy shot a 67 yesterday whereas Woods looked out of sorts and a little drained, eventually coming home in 74. Maybe Woods will step it up being the last round, but surely this guys gunna be on a high after yesterday. Only danger to this bet is if he becomes intimidated playing alongside the legend. But il take the risk. Chappell 7/4 - Up against a very solid player in Senden, but i think 7/4 represents terrific value. Has shot progressively better over the 3 days (74, 71 and a bogey free 68 yesterday). Senden himself shot a decent score yesterday Garcia 7/5 - My each way selection prior to the start of the tournament. Playing alongside Justin Rose today who has put in two decent rounds either side of a 75. Sergio on the other hand has been solid, if not spectacular with 73,71,71. I guess im hoping for his chip in birdie to still be present in his mind when he tees off today and can hopefully shoot low. Of the pairings around +4/5, i think if any duo will make a good run towards the leaders it will be these two. Just doubles and Trebles for me, with a single on Wittenburg too goodluck all
