3.25 Newbury- Albamara- 10/3 Albamara's protracted seasonal debut can yield handsome dividends in the Lord Weinstock Memorial Stakes at Newbury on Thursday. Trainer Sir Mark Prescott thinks the world of this beautifully-bred filly, who has been unearthed a great opportunity in which to make up for lost time this term. Listed races should cosily be on her radar judged by a really encouraging juvenile campaign which reached its climax in the Fillies' Mile at Newmarket. Things did not go to plan at Headquarters, however, as she appeared ill at ease on the rapid ground, and, possibly, unsuited by the track. Before that, it was difficult to knock her four-length romp in an Epsom maiden last August. Prescott has bided his time before pitching the daughter of Galileo back into battle, and it is a clear statement of intent to see her already competing at this decent standard. Albamara has been ideally reared for a stab at middle distances, so the step up to a mile and a quarter should suit nicely, while the likelihood of ease in the ground is not necessarily a bad thing. The Kirsten Rausing-owned filly holds some big entries later this summer, including in the Irish Oaks and the Pretty Polly at the Curragh, so a big display here is essential if Group One dreams are to be realised.
Nice save Wooly, good luck with the horse too though I do think GREAT HEAVENS is a good thing and have lumped on at 7-4
6.25 LeopardstownLIGHTNING PEARL 9/2 A quite spectacular price on last seasons form and are you honestly prepared to write this filly off on one poor run in the soft ground "Homecoming Queen by 8L" 1000 Guineas weekend? Ran superbly well last season, and is more than upto this grade. I would have a saver on Rubina who keeps shaping well without doing any damage and interestingly goes up in grade here and I think shows more at home than she has at the business end of races. Just looking at 'tick the box' horses at Newbury, a Hannon 2nd string can take the opener at value prices with Buick on board in the shape of Hands of Time by soft-ground extraordinaire PIVOTAL.
4.10 Nottingham Piazza San Pietro 10/1 NAP Looks a very big price in my eyes on the back of an absolutely cracking effort LTO off this mark when finishing a 0.62L beaten 3rd on the back of an 8 month break on debut for the Zoe Davison yard. I was actually surprised he ran so well as he has normally needed a reappearance run and to perform was a great performance against horses that were already race fit. He's sure to come on for that effort and looks well able to score off this mark. Jockey George Baker takes over from Ryan Moore in the saddle and again looks a significant booking as he is taken his first ride for the Davison stable. He needs fast ground so the current good going is probably just about ok for him but I'm sure connections will pull him if they feel the ground is unsuitable, a tactic that has been employed by his owner on many occasions. He has an entry in the Wokinham next weekend at Royal Ascot and I think he may need to win this and get a penalty if he is going to get in so this is definitely a significant point in my eyes.If the ground somehow gets the word firm in the description I'll be reinvesting but for now a small/medium bet is enough for me. 5.55 Leopardstown One Spirt 4/1 NB Bit surprised 4s is available about Ger Lyons 4 year old as he finished in front of the favourite two starts back on what was his first run for 7 months, especially as he proved that was no fluke by landing a competitive Listed contest subsequently. LTO he beat the rapidly improving Gordon Lord Byron and I think that is very strong form, especially as I think he'll improve again for todays slightly better surface with Lyons saying âShe won in spite of the ground.". The drop back to todays trip of 7f looked as if it suited when winning earlier this month and that is another advantage in my eyes given he finished in front of Alanza over a mile and I think that would have suited that rival more. He's a horse I followed with Frank Dunne last year who I always thought had a fair bit of potential about him and he seems to be progressive in his two starts for Ger Lyons. I'm confident of a big showing and I think he could be very difficult to pass from the front. 6.25 Leopardstown Lightening Pearl 4/1 Got to agree with Toppy about this one and I'm pretty astonished 4s is available about last years Cheveley Park winning filly. You've got to excuse her run in the Guineas with Ger Lyons even stating on his Facebook 3 days before the race "Not looking like our time folks " in relation to the rain and ground in the build up. This represents a much easier assignment as she is dropped back into a group 3 and crucially she gets better ground today which is a massive bonus. The drop to 6f looks sure to suit and although regular pilot Johnny Murtagh more than likely has commitments to the Aga Khan and Oxx table Kevin Manning is more than able deputy. This 3 year old filly should take all the beating up against her own sex. 7.50 Haydock Amadeus Wolfe Tone 7/1 I followed him last year and I was rather impressed with his reappearance run as I thought he would need it a lot but he still managed to finish a 6.25L beaten 4th. He certainly shaped that he still needed the run but I was highly encouraged by that reappearance. Although he's 7lb higher than his last winning mark, he is certainly unexposed with only 6 starts to date and I certainly think he has a lot of progression left. Moreover, the 2nd from his win 3 starts back won on his next start so it certainly looks a fair rise. Graham Lee is a strong jockey booking as he teams up with in form trainer Jamie Osborne for the first time. Ground shouldn't be any issue although I wouldn't mind it drying out a small bit as I think he's most effective on good ground but its not a grave concern either way. He has two entries for Saturday so he may look to complete a quick double and I'm confident of a big showing from this 3 year old, although its a competitive head and not a race for a significant investment.
Racing Post still showing BC as 1/2 with WH but ATR and Oddschecker have best odds of 4/11 and WH at 1/3. Don't know where RP are getting their odds from for all the bookies but the WH price must be wrong. I'm going to assume that the 1/2 I mentioned yesterday was not available and void my fictional bet (placed on the assumption the RPodds were genuine). Motto. Use oddschecker/ATR/SL for prices available. Don't use RP (at least for ante-post anyway). I see BC is 6/4 to win by more than 3.25l and 6/4 to win by up to an including 3.25l So that's 1/4 the win. Maybe somewhere one could get better odds for the former and somewhere else get better odds for the latter in order to achieve a 1/2 win bet. Has anyone noticed how 1/2 could be achieved by taking special bet odds across bookies?
I couldn't find the article with the great quotations so I'll share this one with you here. It's from a 19th Century Prussian General: "The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan"
Bloody hell some of you boys must work at Billingsgate fish market, they're up all night. Lovely presentation at start of the thread Wooly, our fellow corrospondants may question the content but it adds to the quality of the sport of Kings. Just looking at the last at Uttox this evening,form figures for Danger Meece PPUR-P and there are still 2 horses in the race at bigger prices, what a classy race. Going to follow the advice of others today, cant pick my nose at present, that desperate, even had money on Ronaldo to score last night.
