Why England will win the Euro's

Very hello,

I have done my rigorous and extensive research on the #Euros and have come up with this report for the vast number of Bookmakers in which employ me. All stats are from UEFA which is a football company.

I will now show why England are favourites for Euro2012 based on some scientific criteria and stats, and provide relevant odds for the bookmakers.

1.0 Previous Tournament Performance

Euro 2008 performance

Performance at previous tournaments is key in determining how a nation will perform at the current tournament. A lot of emphasis has been put on the importance of having a good defence this year, so I thought I'd take a look at how well the top teams performed defensively at Euro 2008 and use this as a determining factor in setting odds.


fig 1.11 - Goals conceded at Euro 2008


I--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I----------------------------6---------6----------------------------------------
I-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I---------------------------------------------------4-------------------------
I-------3----------------------------------------------------------------------
I-----------------2-------------------------------------------------------------
I-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I------------------------------------------------------------0----------------
I__________________________________________________
------Spa-----Hol------Ger-------Fra-------Ita------Eng------

The graph shows the goals conceded by the top 6 Euro2012 teams. As you can clearly see; England have the best defensive record. In fact, England haven’t lost a game at the Euros in almost 8 years. An incredible record. Spain have achieved a similar record but have conceded more goals along the way. France appear to have a poor defensive record at Euro2008, but this is only because they failed to qualify for the knock out stages, meaning they played less games, so they had fewer games to not concede goals in.

1.2 Defensive and goals odds

Here are my proposed odds based on previous tournament goals/defence stats:

>England to progress further than they did at Euro 2008 (2/1)

>England to keep a clean sheet in 1 or more group stage defeats (11/8)

>Germany to win all of their games but fail to win the tournament on goals conceded (13/8)



2.0 - Knockout Stage Performance


Performing well in the knockout stage is key to winning a Euros. The majority of previous winners of the Euros have remained undefeated in the knock out stages and this is no coincidence. It may be a surprise to you though, that England have the joint best knockout stage record this century.


Fig.2.1 – Total Defeats in knockout stages by tournament

England – Euro2000(1) Euro2004(1) Euro2008 (0)
Spain – Euro2000(1) Euro2004(1) Euro2008(0)

In my opinion these are the best 2 teams in the knockout stages in the last 12 years because not only did they both not lose in the knockout stages at a whole tournament (Euro2008), but both only lost once in the knockout stages in the 2 previous tournaments, a feat not many other nations can boast. This stat is key in determining my knockout stage odds.


2.2 Knockout Stage Odds

>England to lose 2 or more knockout stage matches (10/1)

>The winner of the tournament to lose 1 or more knockout stage matches (9/1)

>England to lose all of their group matches but win their quarter final (4/1)


3.0 Cultural Adaptability

Playing a tournament in a strange new country can affect the performance of every team. It is key that each team has a leader, a captain, that can blend in seamlessly with the locals and not cause any controversy. The legacy of a tournament is created not only by the fans and locals, but by the winning team.

Fig 3.1 Legacy by Tournament and Adaptability by Winning Team/Captain
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Tournament - Austria and Switzerland 2008
Legacy – The Alps and Mountains
Adaptability of Winner – Puyol was a mountain.
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Tournament – Portugal 2004
Legacy – Greasy Portuguese people
Adaptability of Winner – Winners were Grease
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Tournament – Holland and Belgium 2000
Legacy – Legal Drugs
Adaptability of Winner – The French licked toads

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EURO 2012 LEGACY AND WHO WILL ADAPT BEST

Tournament – Poland and Ukraine 2012
Legacy – Racist People
Predicted winner by adaptability – ENGLAND – John Terry is allegedly definitely racist
----------------------------------------------------------

As you can see in figure 3.1, the adaptability to the legacy of the tournament of the winning team/players has been key in their success. I believe Roy Hodgson’s decision to choose John Terry over Rio Ferdinand on grounds that he is a really good racist is going to be the decision that wins England the Euros and give Euro2012 the really racist legacy that it deserves.

MORE PROPOSED ODDS

John Terry Specials
>John Terry to sleep with Rooney, Milner or Gerrard’s Wife (1/5)
>John Terry to sleep with Welbeck, Defoe or Walcott’s wife (400/1)

Winner/To Lift the Trophy
>Spain/Xavi (4/1)
>Germany/Schweinsomething (5/1)
>Holland/Sneijder (6/1)
>Spain/John Terry (2/1)
>Germany/John Terry (2/1)
>Any other team/John Terry (1/100)

To conclude, England are favourites to win the Euros because they have the best record in the Euros of late, they concede the least goals, perform best in knockout stages and will be able to adapt to the local culture and set the desired legacy of the tournament through some racisting by John Terry.

BET NOW

Bye.

(Source)

 

Do you think it was a simple mistake why England chose to have their base in one country while playing their matches hundreds of miles away in another country?

 

That's just statistical bollocks

 

Less goals in less games you should do the average instead.

 

iin fact I didn't even get a quarter down the post, sorry

 

iI'm more interested with the guy with the groovy hips on that dictator concert crap than odds, and that's saying something, oh no Lenny Henrys on

 

I thought that little table drawing thing was guitar tab for a nine string guitar

 

>England to lose all of their group matches but win their quarter final (4/1)

Eh? They wouldn't even get to the quarters if they lost all their group matches!

 

I could be wrong but I thought the OP was joking.

 

A great post ... Lol

 

Yeah... this didn't work out very well...

I found it posted elsewhere and thought it was great.

 

I don't think Milner, Defoe or Welbeck are married.

 

Oh my, Tigerite !

 

thats the only reason i read as much of the post as i did

 

I think we've got more chance of winning the 2013 Eurovision Song Contest now that Vera Lynn is doing the gig.

 

How do some people miss obvious sarcasm such as this post and start making serious comments lol. This article is hilarious - particularly like the comment that the majority of winners of the Euro Championship have remained undefeated in the knockout stages and this is no coincidence lol