Daily Thread: Friday 1st June- 'Epsom Oaks Day'

Evening folks. Been looking forward to the Derby meeting for a while and have been sticking to group racing for betting purposes and leaving the rest to sort itself out and just be a watching brief. It's the day of the Oaks and what a potentially fabulous race we have. The only worry is that we may have a non-runner in the morning with KISSED but it really would be a late decision from Aiden O'Brien. Hopefully she runs because it adds yet more potential to the mix.

I always think Epsom is a funny course and you are looking for certain types of animal to do well here, so the form is always a little bit questionable.


1.40: JOVIALITY 7/2

Lay Time looked very impressive when last seen and undoubtedly will relish this extra yardage. My only concern is that she might take a run to warm up, and I'm not sure she is the most balanced filly. My gut feeling is that she will be running on strongly but might have lost the race turning in. Joviality is a horse who has no problems taking up a prominent position and relishes a battle, as seen when just outponting the reopposing Barefoot Lady here today. Barefoot Lady certainly stays the trip very well but I think both she and Lay Time would prefer a full 10f and suspect that Joviality might just dictate tis if William Buick can produce a clever ride and pinch a couple of yards turning in. She can come from behind too and sticks at the task very well, knuckles down and that is important around Epsom.

2.15: PEKAN STAR 8/1

The formbook tells us that this is a good horse fresh and this is something trainer Roger Varian agrees with, saying he expects this to be a horse who might run a really big race first time out. Looked full of potential when winning a good handicap at York but didnt go on as expected, meaning he is actually still very fairly handicapped with a horse of this ability and 8/1 looked too big when I went through this card. Varians yard is on the verge of a run of form I think, espec with their first 2 Y O gong in last week, ad this looks a really interesting bet.


4.05: THE OAKS: KISSED 6/1 NRNB- If Kissed runs then she is most certainly my pick and I think she has looked the most impressive of them all. I have not seen any other filly do it so easily and I think she is a genuine Group 1 performer. Of course, before I wax lyrical, I am fully aware that I am talking about potential only as she has not proven herself yet like THE FUGUE but I think she is lightyears ahead of Twirl and I think will beat the Gosden filly- it is whether or not anything is even better than that. She is the best mover of the Ballydoyle fillies and will stay the trip no problem whatsoever. She looked a picture on reappearance, has obviously grown into a nice 3 year old and has the pedigree you want looking at an Epsom Group 1. She was 8L clear hard-heldfrom the 95-rated AARAS, who has since finished in front of WAS (covered at 33/1 earlier today as she has a stack of potential), who will come on for that no doubt and rates the biggest threat of those at double-figure prices. They say she wants it soft but they haven't seen her on good ground yet and she looks balanced enough and classy enough if given the chance and what a ride for Ryan Moore this could be. I might be getting carried away, but she has looked Ballydoyles equivalent to a female Camelot, because she moves so well and just clears away hands and heels. We await the morning news.

If she does not run, I genuinely expect WAS to run a massive race but watch out for a front-running ride from Mikael Barzalona on KAILANI, whose sire and dam both enjoyed running from the front, both of whom were top class, BUT I think the ground will be too quick, as both parents were soft ground kings and queens respectively. She is one to follow with any give in the ground and keep some very close tabs on her post-Epsom.

 

MORNING TOPPY, i also like Was and hopefully will be another O'B that runs well at a big price

be lucky everybody
stay frosty

 

Forget me not Lane & Hallstatt, Glee double today across the cards @ Newcastle and Haydock, also Elspeth in the 1st @ Haydock. spend your winning from the southern meeting and fill them boots

 

Morning all,

Im afraid toppy I have to go against you on all 3 races but good luck anway matey

1.40 Laytime- 7/4

Progressed well last season when winning very comfatbaly I must add a 1m Listed race at sandown beating a couple of decent horses (King Torus, Emerald Commander.) I feel she is still very unexposed and imo will take all the beating.

2.15 Gatewood 3/1 (NAP)

Won impressivley lto out york at a decent price- is up 5lbs for that win but has plenty of scope for progress

4.05 Maybe- 3/1

She was undoubtedly the creme de la creme last season, taking her record to five wins from five starts in the Group 1 Moyglare Stakes at the Curragh in August, and she travelled like a class act before finishing third in the 1000 Guineas last month. She seems certain to have appreciated that comeback run and the move up to 1m4f holds no fears for the daughter of Galileo given her dam was closely related to last year's winner Dancing Rain out of a half-sister to Derby winner Dr Devious

 

3.25 Boogie Shoes- 6/1

He looks to have improved again over the winter judged by his highly encouraging comeback second (Mawaakef third, Unex El Greco fourth) at Newmarket last month. He proved easy in the market on that occasion, suggesting he may have been expected to strip fitter for the run, and he's worth supporting to go one better off just a 1lb higher mark today.

 

Morning all.

There is a massive stand out bet for me today at EPSOM and that is PRODUCER (4.50). The 5/1 on offer looks very good imo.

Firstly he is the only horse with winning C&D form and we all know how important this can be at Epsom. His course form reads 3 wins from 3 starts. Also he finished a very good 3rd behind Stipulate from the Sir Henry Cecil stable last time out. That one bounced back from a poor effort in bad ground when finishing runner up in a very warm Listed race last night at Sandown Park. PRODUCER (NAP)

 

WAS 4.00 EPSOM - 20/1 (WIN) 40/1 (E.W) 50/1 (E.W & WIN)

I backed WAS at 20/1 before her reappearance on the 16th May at Naas where she finished 3rd of 6 in the Group 3 Blue Wind stakes. That effort did nothing but increase my confidence in this filly as I thought it was such a nice run and I really liked the ride from Heffernan who rides her again today. It was nothing more than a racecourse spin but he still gave her a slap and rode her out all the way to the line and gained a bit more experience. She was sold for 1.2 Million as a yearling and had been all the hype on the morning of her debut at 2 before drifting to 9/2 before the off before winning impressively for Joseph O’Brien. On both career starts so far she has shaped as if this step up in distance will suit. I have topped up yesterday at 40/1 and noticed 50/1 this morning with Stan James so have gone in again. I just hope they don't use her for pacemaking duties as I believe she has the potential to develop in to a high class filly.

 

Lucky 15 ew and accy

Stand to Reason17/2 2:15

Boogie Shoes 6/1 3:25

Fire Ship 9/1 5:25

Coquet 25/1 NAP 4:05

 

Good morning guys. A fine weekend of racing. As a young 16 year old I worked with a chap who did a daily round robin and he collected most days (he sent me to collect his winnings). His main advice was to always look at C/D winners on tricky tracks at big meetings. With that in mind my main bet today is RESURGE, 2:15 Epsom with stand to reason as the danger, I also like PRODUCER Rainbow and he is another C/D horse and to make up the doubles and treble and top up the pot to overflowing I have gone for an outsider in the biggie COQUET. Off for a quick 18 holes but hope to be back for a good afternoons entertainment and some pleasant banter with all you bookie bashers. Be lucky.

 

The Fugue was most impressive in the Musidora, when she made very light work of a well backed Twirl, a result that seemed to give A O'Brien something to think about at the time.

Of Ballydoyle's multiple entries, Maybe has the best 2yold form and ran a perfectly good prep race in the 1000 Guineas. I've taken the 4/1 purely on value grounds, in the hope of trading out before the off.

The Oaks contender who left the strongest visual impression on me was Vow, who veered all over the place in the straight at Lingfield when destroying the rest of the field. Hopefully she'll have learned from that 2nd run and can put her precocious talent to the test without a repeat of the greenness she showed that day.

I seem to have tipped up the front three in the market so far. How embarrassing. A mention must therefore go to Shirocco Star, who should come on for her recent close up 2nd in a Listed race at Newbury over 1m2f. She looked that day as though an extra 2f ought to suit, and at 16/1 rates a decent e/w bet.

The Oaks

1) The Fugue
2) Vow
3) Shirocco Star

nb Maybe

 

really looking forward to this meeting.
will be in the stands for Derby Day but today is looking a better day than I had first thought.

1.40 NIGHT LILY 33/1 I don't necessarily think she will win but at the price I consider this a stand out each way bet
a close 2nd to the outstanding Chachmaidee in her last start and 2nd in a competitive handicap at Glorious Goodwood last summer strikes me as pretty good form

2.15 GATEWOOD 11/4 I was very impressed by the manner of his last win. Resurge has the course and distance form to be a major threat though.

2.50 DANCE AND DANCE 11/2 Ryan Moore rides, won at this meeting last year. Good price. I'm on!

4.05 VOW 5/1 Johnny Murtagh rides, I was very impressed by her Lingfield win, but this is a very competitive race today!

4.50 PRODUCER 5/2 I have followed this horse since I saw it win its maiden race here at Epsom back in July. It followed this up with another 2 course and distance wins and was a useful 3rd in its reappearance at the Craven meeting. I have just seen that Fallen for You is a non runner so get on now!

 

Just from a purely pedigree perspective, there are 4 fillies in the Oaks that stand out:

BETTERBETTERBETTER (33/1) her pedigree screams Oaks filly - three of her sisters (one full, two 3/4) have run and placed in the Oaks. Families that act around Epsom should always be taken seriously and she is, of course, by Galileo.

KAILANI (10/1) daughter of Oaks winner Kazzia. You don't supplement a horse into a race if you don't think you have a chance.

KISSED (15/2) 3/4 sister to last year's Derby winner POUR MOI, by the peerless Galileo

WAS (50/1) another Galileo filly, this time from the family of Derby winner NEW APPROACH.

Don't say I didn't warn you

 

Hope everyone has put there picks in for today for the fantasy competition we are like a steam roller on a path to destruction

 

Good day Chps and chapesses, as it's Oaks day and i have a few fancies, I thought I'd put a few selections up.

1.40. Clinical. progressing nicely and has useful course form. Still a tasty e/w price at 5/1

2.15. Pivotman. Big improver last back end, won 1st time out 2010 and been gelded since last run which may well eke out some more improvement. 16/1 way to big.

2.50. Dance and Dance. Another with course form. Has a bit to find on the book with the favourite, but Ryan Moore gets on very well with this brute and 6/1 is more than fair in my book.

3.25. The big swerve....way too trappy!!!

4.05. Kailani (NAP). Sorry all you blinkered AOB coolmore fiends, but the boys in blue take the Oaks!!
Have to disagree with Toppy regarding his comments on Monsun and Kazzia. Both won races on good and good/firm ground as well as on softer ground, so I have no doubts about her handling the ground. the dams sire is loaded with stamina, so can't envisage a front runnig ride either....but only time will tell on all counts!
Hope WAS shortens.....I'll lay it all day....place market included.

4.50. Balty Boys. Wins.

5.25. My Sharona. Dropped back in trip today which Ithink may eke a little more improvement. Has course form and has the Knack(!) of running into a place....so at 12/1 worth an e/w dabble.....or, as I'm doing, have a nice dabble in the place market on the mchine.

got a few fancies at sunny Haydock tonight, so will be back later with those.

Good luck all.

 

Morning all, and i hope we are all in tip top shape for this weekends sporting action...

Busy as usual for the weekend so having to place bets and selections early... Only looked at Epsom, and why not, so i will dazzle you with these to avoid...

1.40 - Lay Time... 15/8
2.15 - Gatewood... 11/4
2.50 - Dance And Dance... 6/1
3.25 - Starwatch... 16/1
4.05 - Kailani... 8/1
4.50 - Producer... 11/4
5.25 - Van Ellis... 13/2

Singles, e/w's and a couple of doubles... Hopefully i can get to watch some of the racing today but if not hope we all have a good one...

Dont forget to pick your runners for PN's comp...!!! We have to maintain this rise to the top...!!!

 

I have actually remembered to make my selections today for PN's comp. Hopefully I can start to make my way back up that leaderboard!

 

Morning Ladies and Gentlemen my selections for Epsom today in no particular order apart from time:

1.40 Barefoot Lady 9/2
2.15 Resurge 13/2
3.25 Field Of Dream 28/1 (EW) & Axiom 33/1 (EW)
4.05 The Fugue 3/1 RF with Vow 5/1 and for a nice EW price Nayarra 100/1 (EW)
4.50 Justineo 5/2
5.25 Alejandro 25/1 (EW) and Crown Dependancy 12/1 (EW)

Good luck all and have a great day at the races

 

I have backed The Fugue antepost at 6/1, Vow this morning at 5/1 and have had a little nibble at Devotion at 50/1.

1. The Fugue
2. Vow
3. Devotion

Best of luck all.

 

Afternoon folks. Aint the oaks a stormer.

I backed betterbetterbetter a few days ago and still have plenty of hope. All of the AOB's seem to have some sort of chance at some very juicy prices. Also like coquet, will back that in a minute and think that Lunar Deity is overpriced in the 4.50.

Good luck all.