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The £10k Betting Experiment (Stage 1) - FINISHED

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by Ron, Mar 25, 2012.

  1. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Oh what fun. £60 staked. £40 return. Lost £20

    Current standing:


    Plan A. Betting Bank £13,680: Piggy Bank £0
    Plan B. Betting Bank £9,980: Piggy Bank £3,700
     
    #121
  2. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Crikey, Winter Hill drifted out to 14/1. Wonder why that was.
     
    #122
  3. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Sandown 19.20 Opinion Poll (13/8 various) £800 win
     
    #123
  4. Petito

    Petito Member

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    that's how i would do it. i.e. profit is no longer money i could bet with and is a bonus. that's also the way i save money [i really hope it's still there and my bank is in business, such is the times]. but yeh, tight budget to end up with even just a fiver, and that money left over at the end of the month peels off and start again next month.

    so chasing losses is the same as/similar to spending winnings. make profit, leave the profit aside, make more with original bank.

    it's looking healthy anyway. if only it were real beer money <cheers>
     
    #124
  5. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Brighton 2.30 Filon 4/1 everywhere £100 win Risky but they are at the start so decision time. Done.
     
    #125
  6. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Whoops. Ran a stinker on his fav track. That's one horse I'll happily forget.

    PS this clock is 6 mins fast.
     
    #126
  7. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    That will do nicely. Nice price too.

    Lost £100 on Filon
    Won £1300 on Opinion Poll

    Balance:

    Plan A. Betting Bank £14,880: Piggy Bank £0
    Plan B. Betting Bank £9,880: Piggy Bank £5,000
     
    #127
  8. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    I'm going to resist the temptation to have a small dabble on I'm A Dreamer (Sandowwn 19.55) at 4/1.

    No bet.
     
    #128
  9. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Good decision.
     
    #129
  10. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    I'm avoiding the Derby like the plague. Odds on shots should have no question marks and Camelot has a few.

    1. Never raced beyond a mile.
    2. May not be suited by the course
    3. Has not won any race in a fast time

    He has some plus points of course:
    1. Montjeux has sired 3 of the last 7 Derby winners
    2. He's unbeaten

    Also it's difficult to find any compelling reason why any of the other runners should win. I'm not even convinced that any of the opposition are bred to win a Derby.

    All this, to me, adds up to a mediocre Derby where class may win the day. Whatever wins, I don't think I would be rushing to back it in the Arc; unless the winner goes and wins the KG impressively.

    Camelot shouldn't even be odds on to stay 12f in a truly run race, or to appreciate the undulations (being a long striding individual), so odds on to win is just a ridiculous price. The odds on simply reflects the mediocrity of the opposition.
     
    #130

  11. rainbowview

    rainbowview Well-Known Member

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    You put up a good case against Camelot Ron <ok>. But then I look at the field see Main Sequence is 10/1 and think if thats the case Camelot is a 1/20 shot <laugh> <ok>
     
    #131
  12. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Agreed RV. That is the problem with this race. Not one horse in the race has got close to even an average time on turf. So how can we be sure any of them are up to running a decent time over 12f on a sound surface? Can't see this being a truly run race.
     
    #132
  13. rainbowview

    rainbowview Well-Known Member

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    My money would defs be on Astrology for a place at least. But I can't be sure they are not going to make him go a stupid pace up front so I think I will leave the race alone.
     
    #133
  14. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Seriously considering Albany rose today, only to discover she's a NR. Oh well, another non bet day.
     
    #134
  15. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Naas
    15.00 Glor Na Mara £100ew 9/1 Coral
    16.10 Dawn Approach 4/5 BS £500 win
     
    #135
  16. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Looks like I just lost out on the place money there, thanks to the jockey easing off near the line.
     
    #136
  17. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    No. He got 3rd. So that's £125 profit.
     
    #137
  18. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Bugger. Picked Derfenna Art in the 15.15 Chepstow but chickened out. Won at 8/1. Still, would have only been minimum bet ew and had it lost I would have been calling myself stupid for backing it in a rush. Mustn't complain; wasn't at all confident.
     
    #138
  19. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Jolly good. Nearly had a dabble of Fairy Wing 15.35 Naas but chickened out and it lost. I'm sure I would lose more than I win picking these out race by race.

    Let's hope my main bet today does the business in the 16.10 Naas.
     
    #139
  20. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Fun bet while I wait for the big one. £40 win on Danadana 15.55 at Redcar 5/4 general
     
    #140

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