I have had a quick perusal of the Derby formbook and the one that makes most appeal amongst the outsiders is Tower Rock for me at 66/1. I am happy to ignore the Sandown/Newmarket/Lingfield/Chester form which knocks out quite a few. I'm not saying they can't get involved but it gives a nice angle to exploit. I am also not convinced that it is that strong anyway. That leaves: Camelot, Bonfire, Cavaleiro and Tower Rock. Cavaleiro isn't anywhere near good enough. He probably won't win but I could see him nicking a place at a big price, especially if Imperial Monarch and Astrology are rerouted to the French Derby instead.
I can't help but feel that Imperial Monarch will make the frame, if he runs. He went a long, long way round Sandown, surrendered a lot of lengths, yet he stuck to his task superbly. What was most striking was that he was relentless in the way he galloped on at the finish. He really did knuckle down and stay, and this is an important point as this seems to a be a feature of the offspring produced by his dam, Ionian Sea. Marigold, the first of the offspring, stayed 2 miles on the flat before going hurdling, that was a colt by MARJU. Was rated 86 in Ireland on the flat. Special Reserve was another who didnt scale massive heights. A colt by SADLERS WELLS, almost every single race you look at in his history, he was seen as 'keeping on' 'never near leaders' 'never troubled leaders' 'stayed on'- why? Bercause he barely went beyond 10f. Amazing that he never got upped in trip and he shaped really well behind RED MERLIN in a good Irish handicap, where Red Merlin went on to be the 2nd favourite for the Ebor at York. I feel they never really got to the bottom of that horses ability. Mount Athos a lot of you will already know about, winning the Cambridgeshire from an impossiblew draw, he has bags of stamina and really does show that this Ionian Sea is a dam tailor made for stayers. I cannot help but think if Galileo has injected (what an appropriate word) a bit of class into the mix for the pedigree of Imperial Monarch, you have a really interesting Derby contender. I think Imperial Monarch is crying out for a mile and a half, looks an out and out galloper, and I think will be coming home as strong as anyone in the Derby. I think he is the one horse where I can genuinely say I have no concerns over the trip whatsoever. Camelot does things so easily that one might think 'what resolve does he have', but I think he suggested in the Guineas he has plenty and that a longer trip would suit. On drying ground though, I'd be interested to see how he gallops on. He has the turn of foot and he travels, but when it comes to really stretching in the last 2 furlongs, that is where the Derby questions are answered. Sea The Stars answered every beck and call he had in that part of the race, and he was a one off. So 4/7 on Camelot with Ladbrokes is, for me, the poorest price in a while, despite his obvious class. Imperial Monarch remains unexposed and had a little form boost from Thought Worthy already, so that might turn out to be some pretty useful form unless the ground did play such a part in his victory at Sandown. Would it not be the most ironic thing for Imperial Monarch to win it in the jubilee year, 12 months after Calrton House, in Her Majestys colours, was just beaten out of it at Epsom in the 2011 Derby?
topclass, i completely agree with everything you said there. i just have a massive gut instinct that he won't get the chance to run. i guess we're find out tomorrow if he's still left in the french derby, but with astrology being bred to stay further than imperial monarch(i think?) it looks like IM will be the one going.
Hawkeye, yes that is my concern too but I genuinely see Imperial Monarch staying every inch of a mile and a half trip, whereas the French Derby is only just over a mile and a quarter. Watch IMs maiden win and Sandown win, he is stronger at the line than anywhere else in the race. Hoping AOB runs him and sends Astrology to France. Ive had some of the 12/1 NRNB for Imperial Monarch.
Camelot is currently 122 and Bonfire 119. The closeness of their ratings isn't mirrored in the market with Camelot best priced 4-6 and Bonfire 5-1. A lot has been made of Bonfire coming on a ton from the Dante but Camelot was weak in the market for the 2000 and AO'B stated the race would bring him on loads and was not the main target for the colt. Fencing appears a reliable tool of calibration and on a line through him Camelot,at face value,has 1.25l in hand of Bonfire.Fencing was eased down in the last furlong at York. Using French Fifteen to corroborate form,Camelot has 2l in hand of Bonfire.Some will argue that Bonfire was unlucky when the pair met in France but a close examination of that race clearly shows FF going away at the finish.Bonfire would have been second if avoiding interference but was losing ground on the winner close home. Too much imo has been made of a slightly troubled passage. Important to note that the ratings attributed to both contenders are temporary and transient. The suspicion is that Camelot has more to offer and probobly has more scope than Bonfire who is the smaller individual of the two. I won't be backing either but will watch the race with fascination.
Astrology and Imperial Monarch left in the French. So we could end up with Camelot, Father of Science and Tower Rock. Think this could be Camelot's to lose.
Dexter, I think you have hit the nail on the head there. I think David Johnson (Timeform) summed it up quite nicely in his Q&A session on the Derby: "You look at Camelot and think he'll improve for the step up to a mile-and-a-half, with Bonfire you hope he can match the level he's already shown at shorter trips." Camelot is ahead of Bonfire already and has yet to race over his correct trip. When he does so in the Derby I fully expect him to confirm and further his superiority. Full Article - http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/...ME=racing/12/05/29/manual_140922.html&BID=465
AOB protecting Camelot. He doesnt want any ****ing opposition then. Hugely disappointing. Next blow for me will be Kissed announced as a non-runner, barring any Epsom rain. Camelot to win by 4L+ is the value bet.
It's not like other trainers are doing much better in providing some competition for Camelot. When O'Brien has lots of runners, people have a go. Now he might only run two, people are still having a go!
I know what you mean, but he wins a Derby trial staying on strongly in tough ground but won't let him have a crack at a mile and a half when performance and pedigree suggest he'll relish it? Barmy decision. He will be outpaced in France. Astrology? I think Father of Science recorded a better time at Chester than him and who did Astrology beat? Magnussons horse was 2nd, rated 90!
Toppy sorry but to say he is protecting Camelot is crazy. I think its more the fact he is confident that he will win it regardless of what lines up. If he thought Imperial Monarch was a serious challenger he would run simple as that ITS THE DERBY !!!!!
I do think he rates Camelot as the biggest real deal since Galileo. What really aggravates me is that most trainers would give their nuts to have a Derby trial winner with a Galileo pedigree like IM yet he just pisses around with him. and even more annoyingly WHO CARES ABOUT THE FRENCH DERBY? Its a pile of rubbish at an awkward distance. Epsom is meant to be the ultimate test and I just dont understand why he misses it with IM?
Because he doesn't want to play for place money - whats more valuable winning the French Derby or finishing runner up at Epsom ?
