This has all got a bit silly, no point attacking each other over it... A friend of mine in Holland wrote a scathing thesis on the Football press across the globe and how easy it is to make crap up and find it re-hashed a day or so later on so called "reputable" sources such as the BBC, Sky Sports, etc. There were examples of made up players from far flung corners of the earth putting out a story that they were about to be signed by a top club and the domino effect taking over, without the slightest bit of FACT-CHECKING. At the end of the day the amount of media coverage that we, as fans, have bought into perpetuates this ridiculous situation where idle gossip and what-if's become news stories. There's no point having a go at Casual Fan for simply reading and re-posting it all. That said, these rubbish stories (which hopefully it is) do cause a serious unsettling effect on clubs, players and...sod it...US THE FANS! Which is a concern. I only hope something like the Leveson inquiry can happen to give the lazy journalists a much needed kick up the backside.
If he does go to Liverpool , its probably a bit of a weird choice at this stage in his career. I just cant see the fans buying into keep ball . I'd have expected him to keep his powder dry until something came up at either Chelsea or Tottenham.
I dont think he is going anywhere plus I think its all part of an extremely clever plan. This is what has REALLY happened and what will happen: 1. Rodgers had to go to USA to sort something out regarding our pre season tour and take in the Wales Mexico game which had been planned all along 2. Jenkins has rung a lowly rag saying that he is meeting the Liverpool owners for a 'chat' 3. Jenkins rings Rodgers saying he has a cunning plan to help the club and can he come in for what they will tell everyone is a 'routine' meeting. 4. Meeting had Rodgers and Jenkins let the merryround begin....paper reports he is going....expecting an increase in bets the bookies lower the odds....with the odds lowered more papers report he is going.....with more papers reporting it the bookies again lower the odds in anticipation again...so on and so forth until it gets to a nice 1/4. 5. At this point Jenkins sticks the rest of the transfer kitty on Rodgers not going anywhere. 6. Another statement will be released saying he had no intention of ever going. 7. For their laziness the papers look like tits and the bookies take a hammering meaning that the kitty is boosted enough to Buy Caulker plus the cash to loan someone good THE END
Ok, let's look at some of the facts shall we? I should be tidying my house but the amount of people discussing this means I should probably chip in too. All this new speculation seems to be based around Rodgers all of a sudden being "Liverpool's no1" choice. Now, Martinez has already spoken to 'Pool once, and did so again yesterday, so how the hell is a manager who hasn't even spoken to the club ahead of him in the running? It makes no sense and screams of pure speculation to me. I think, and I could have egg on my face if this does transpire to be true, that what's happened is the Swans had an itinerary which was easy to manipulate into looking like Rodgers wanted to speak to the Anfield club and Liverpool have done the "big club"[sic] thing and leaked they're interested, which stinks. Rodgers isn't stupid, and knows if he really was the first choice, he'd have been the only person approached originally. Also, lots of the same articles saying "Rodgers to Anfield - done deal" are also finishing on a footnote of "Louis Van Gaal has also emerged as a leading candidate"... now WHY on earth would you say that if you, at the time of writing, were 100% sure Buck was off to Anfield? Press bollocks, that's what this is. If it's not, I'll look stupid, but I'd rather look stupid once something is out of my control than focus on negatives while the issue is still affecting my club. We all saw how this kind of thing affected us with the Spurs nonsense, don't you think if Buck was looking around online to gage fans opinions on this, it would help if we were unanimous in saying "No way, I don't believe it and I can't believe Buck would leave"? As it is, he'll have a browse at this, and other sites, and no doubt find a proportion of people calling him judas, some people potentially helping him justifying it in his head, and others who'll say things like "he wasn't that good anyway!". Obviously, most of us would hate to see him go but the more this story gets talked about the more weight it will seem to have, and it could well turn out to be bollocks. I'd be interested to see whether all the people who think he's off are the same people who didn't think we'd sign Sigurdsson.
Good post Scottswan. I agree with mos of what you say and hope you are right. I think we all agree that the papers print utter bollocks at times and then every man and is dogs re-prints the stories and adds their on spin to it. So it can be almost impossible to know what's going on. But just to clarify, I personally have not at any point claimed that Brendan is going to leave to manage Liverpool. All I've said is the evidence seems to strong point to that possibility. And there is a huge difference between those two things. Brendan is probably the only one that knows. But I think the point of threads like this is to allow us to speculate. For those that don't like speculating, they can just ignore the thread. So for me the things that stand out and that make me think there is a good chance he'll leave is based largely on the way the betting has been going. As I have said previously, this isn't a failproof way of knowing something but does give you some insights. I find it hard to believe that Brendan would be 1-5 favorite based just on speculation, although I know this is possible. But it is very rare indeed for a manager's odds to be this low and not get the job. But Martinez is still in with a chance. From the betting it would seem that Brendan has an 80% chance of being the next manager and Martinez a 20% chance. That's all it means. So I repeat again - I'm not claiming to know he's leaving and he may not leave. The other thing that makes me even more certain that he is at least thinking about the job is the denial from Swansea which states something along the lines that there hasn't been another approach to the club. To me that seems to ask more questions than it answers and seems to have been worded very specifically to that it is truthful but hides what's really going on. How about a statement saying that Rodgers has confirmed (again) that he's not interested in the job. A very easy statement to make if it's true. How about a statement saying there's been no contact between Liverpool's agents and brendan's agents? Again, not mentioned. Both these combined lead to me believe there is more chance of him leaving than staying. But that doesn't mean he will leave. i think many don't understand odds and probability. Being favorite doesn't mean it's bound to happen or that everyone thinks it will happen. It just means it's the most likely outcome. 100-1 chances still happen. I think there is a 14,000,000-1 chance of winning the lottery but people still win it. The favorite doesn't always win. So Brendan is a very strong favorite. That means he is likely to get the job but not certain to get the job, because hot favorites also lose. I think if Martinez was going to get the job it would have been announced by now. But Whelan has gone quiet so maybe he has got the job and they are just sorting out the details, compensation, etc. At the end of the day, we just don't know and we are speculating. If find speculating and intellectually interesting pursuit and I think others do as well. But many are caught up in the situation and want to shoot the messenger rather than hold a rational debate. I also realise there are lots of reasons for Rodgers to stay and I think he would be making a mistake if he left now, especially what happened after Reading. I think the Liverpool fans want a bigger name manager and Rodgers will be under extreme pressure if he takes the job and loses the first 2-3 matches. He has to think carefully about that and I'm sure he is.
Also a good post! One thing I was thinking yesterday, given that the outcome of the Liverpool approach would pretty much be evident by today, surely it would be worth all the bookies slashing the odds on Rodgers for one day? If he says no, smack them back up, it's not like they're doing it for a week. One bookie does it on the strength of a tip and all of a sudden there's panic and Rodgers becomes the odds on favourite? Sorry if I misread your posts, I try to read everything but because I read pretty much all the threads trawling for god knows what I scan read sometimes and end up missing bits/jumping to conclusions I think, especially when it's something I have a strong opinion on!
And here's a bonus for those that claim to be certain that Brendan will stay. Open an account at betfair and lay odds for Brendan getting the managers job. You will get plenty of people to match your bets and you will make easy money. Here's your chance to put your money where your mouth is and make yourself a wad of cash. You could pay off your mortgage, buy a new car, take a holiday. It's easy money f you are 100% certain. But don't come crying to me if it all goes wrong. Of course, you make a wad I expect at least a pint for the suggestion. This isn't financial advice, do your own research, blah, blah, blah. You have been warned.
i will only listen to what i know to be facts and that is brendan has come back early for talks with huw, now we dont know what these talks are about and i find it a bit odd that huw states that they never discussed the FACT that brendan is one of the managers being considered as a possible candidate, i cant accept that because its illogical not to discuss the current situation. I firmly believe that liverpool have had talks with both huw and brendan but because martinez is still involved and he will give them an answer by friday then huw and brendan cant say to much as lets be honest here brendan has a lot of thinking to do. I hope he comes to the conclusion that at this time in his career he would be better off staying in a safe job than taking over a high profile job like any of the big teams not just liverpool. i think he will weigh things up carefully and make an announcement after martinez makes his on friday...
He didn't come back early, it was scheduled months ago. Unless I missed something... "You firmly believe Pool have had talks with Brendan and Huw" err what?!?!?!
Yes, that's probably exactly the reason they have slashed the odds. If he gets interviewed for the job I think he's a certainty. The only reason the odds aren't lower is because he might still turn them down. He's probably thinking seriously about it and maybe he'll come to the conclusion that he's best to stay here for another year or two. But the bookies also have to be careful that they don't price others too highly, but I'm sure they've got themselves covered very well. These football manage odds always have massive margins in the bookies favour. It's almost a licence to print money. Wasn't implying that you were jumping to conclusions, but many on here seem to think I'm saying that Brendan is definitely leaving and that I'm a Cardiff fan and whatever else. I would prefer they just argued their case if the disagree with my reasoning. I'm not always right!
My point was really though, was that all it would take is someones brothers uncles dog's nephew to tell Ladbrokes in Rotherham he's heard Rodgers is signing for Liverpool, and all of a sudden he's the favourite across the country! I'm always very dubious using bookies to gage outcomes. Obviously, the bookie normally wins for a reason but when there's so much up in the air I doubt they know any more than we do.
Dai, this is what happened... Brendan arrived home and met Huw, who had just spent the lats 3 hours reading the speculation about Rodgers and Liverpool. So Huw said " Hi brendan, hope you had a good holiday" Brendan: Ys great holiday thanks Huw, how have things been here? Huw: great, we managed to sign Sig Brendan: great news. Ok, let's get down to business and discuss our plans for next season. who else shall we sign? 2 hour meeting abour new signings, then... Brendan: Goodbye see you tomorrow Hw: ok, have a great day. See no mention of then Liverpool job! Ok, I agree with you. It's utter bollocks and anyone who believes that Liverpool wasn't mentioned is living in fairy land. Come on guys, do you really think Huw wouldn't mention the speculation at all? Why not? because he was frightened of the answer?
I'm not saying it wasn't mentioned, of course it would have been and as you say anyone who thinks otherwise needs their head checked. The closest story to "Liverpool approach Rodgers again" though is the BBC reporting "Liverpool will renew their interest today" so until there's been an official approach surely it's a non-issue as far as Huw is concerned. Talk all you want, media hounds, until we have to deal with it it's not happening!
Think were in a 50 - 50 situation here , it will depend a lot on the type of restrictions Liverpool want to put on Rodgers . Brendan wants the job , IMO , if he can get it on his terms & therein might lie his problem . Just read we'll be asking between 4 & 5 million , works for me !!
I think you misunderstand how bookies work if you think that is possible. If it was then people would just feed false information to the bookies so that they could get better odds on their real target. I'm sure this happens in a round about way by feeding stories to the press, etc. But the odds change based mostly on bets placed on certain candidates. And by all accounts there has been an avalache of money for Brendan. These bets were being placed even while Martinez was being interviewed, so the perception is that people in the know still thought Brendan was a good bet. That probably increased the speculation and then it feeds itself, so it gets difficult to know what goes on. But if this is so unsettling for the fans, why doesn't Brendan stop the speculation? That is the question that remains unanswered. The speculation is huge and yet Brendan keeps quiet. Why do you think that is? All he has to do is say to a passing reporter that he's staying and has no intention whatsoever of going to Liverpool. But he's not saying anything. You're right that the bookies don't know more than we do. But they job isn't to know anything. Their job is to make a market and profit from it. They don't care who gets the job because over the long-run they will always make money. This is a kisconception that bookies know what's going on. They don't and they don't care. The bets are all they need to know. They then adjust teh odds to cover every eventuality. It's just a probability game stacked in their favor. Or Liverpool owners could have put a shedload of money on Brendan and fed a false story to the press so that they can concentrate on their real first choice. They then announce they shock choice and say they have no idea where all those stories came from. Nothing would surprise me.
There's a 5mil get out clause I think? I just don't see it working on so many levels. He WOULD try and change the playing style, and one possible result of that is losing a load of games on the head - then he'll be out on his ass and they'll have "King Kenny" or Rafa back before he knew it. It makes no sense to go to Liverpool now and if most people can see that surely he can? I doubt he has the ego to think "I can go there and instantly transform an overrated underperforming football club" and I can't see why he would go! How many more points did Liverpool get than us? How much more did they spend? Surely he's likely to finish higher in the league next season at the Swans where he knows it all inside out, than if he went to a new club with new players and embarked on shifting the entire ethos of the club!
