No idea, I don't really know how bookies work, I was just putting it out there. Maybe I'm clutching at straws
Another factor is the director of football thing that appears to have put Martinez off. Would Rogers be happy with that...?
The bookies don't make up odds on what they think will happen. hey have no idea whether brendan will get the Liverpool job. The point is that if is odds are shortening them something is going on. Could just be someone putting large amounts of money on Brendan. But that person could have got it wrong. Also, with all the talk the bookies need to protect themselves. But as brendan's price shortens other odds are lengthening, so the bookies would lose money on the person who actually got the job. I'm not saying Brendan will get the job because he's favorite. I'm just pointing out that there seems to be something going on that we might not be aware of. In any case, he's only around evens, which equates to a 50-50 chance of getting the job. But there's the bookies margin built into that and the margin is huge for these kinds of bets. But he was 10-1 or 20-1 a few days ago. Why is he suddenly favorite? Something is happening. And I don't mean Brendan is going. But something is happening for those odds to drop so much. Many potential managers have said they have no interest in a job but then end up getting it. You never know what will happen.
Why must there something going on ? The odds are shortening because people are putting money on it happening, not because of anything else.
I agree with Valley. The bookies know as much as we do, they don't have insiders in every club. They shorten/lengthen the odds based on bets going on, nothing more, nothing less.
But why would people be putting money on Brendan if it obviously wasn't going to happen? There must be a reason for lots of people to be suddenly backing him. Often when odds shorten very quickly like this, teh person ends up getting the job. According to the Evening Post, Brendan has cut short his holiday to return to Swansea and discuss this with Huw. If he has no intention of leaving then why does he need to discuss it. All he has to do is phone Huw and say he's staying and there's nothing more to be said. http://www.thisissouthwales.co.uk/Rodgers-kop-fears-grow/story-16217310-detail/story.html Whether you want to believe it or not, there is definitely something going on. Maybe Swansea haven't been approached by Liverpool this week but perhaps they've been sounded out about it. There's lots more that goes on behind the scenes than most realise. And we all now that denials by clubs often don't mean anything, because the things they deny happen within a few days. Interesting though that Martinez and Rodgers are considered the two favorites. Swans must be good at picking managers. Let's hope they can pick another one.
Now that it seems likely that Brendan will talk to Liverpool this week and probably take the job, who would you like to see as the next Swansea manager? An up-and-coming manager or someone who's already managed in the Premier League? How do you think his leaving will affect new signings? Will Sig sign if Brendan leaves. He's due to sign later this week, but will he delay so that he knows what's happening with Brendan. Maybe he'll end at Liverpool with Brendan. http://www.thisissouthwales.co.uk/Rodgers-kop-fears-grow/story-16217310-detail/story.html
Huw should tell Liverpool to do one. If he does go then I can't see how he'll match the target set by the chief exec of champions league with their current squad so he'll only last one season. Who would we go for. Young cheap and hungry again? Lee Clark?
That's exactly my point. I'm not saying the bookies know anything. I'm saying the odds reflect what's going on. Perhaps someone close to the Liverpool owners know they want Brendan and know that they are going to make a big effort to talk to him this week. So maybe they then decided he's worth a punt at 10-1 and put a big wedge on. Then the bookies dropped the odds because there is big money coming in. But that doesn't mean they will get to talk to Brendan or that he will take the job. But it means that there is something going on. And in the hypothetical scenario just mentioned, Brendan would indeed have more chance of getting the job. If you were close to the owners and heard that you wouldn't place a bet on Redknapp to be their next manager. So the odds are a reflection of what's happening and the very short odds almost certainly means something is happening, even if it doesn't come to anything. That's all I'm saying.
Maybe Brendan has cut short his holiday so he can be at the Liberty for the signing/press conference of our new player (Sigurddson), which is the only definitive piece of information that there is.
LOL. He's not due to sign until later in the week, so no need for Brendan to arrive back a few days before then. In any case, the manager doesn't need to be there.
Why, what's wrong with speculating about our next manager? There are plenty of threads speculating on players we'll sign and ones we should get rid of. This is done even for players under contract. So why is it ok to speculate about players but not managers? What makes them so special that speculation isn't allowed? I don't know if Brendan will leave this week but many on here have their heads buried very deep in the sand if they think Brendan isn't in the frame for the Liverpool job. I hope he stays, but if he doesn't I'm just wondering would the fans would like as a replacement. Can't see why you find that so wrong.
Bookies also take into consideration media speculation, twitter feeds and other social media as well as betting patterns. It doesn't just take one person placing a large bet to shorten the odds and that doesn't always mean that odds will lenghthen on other candidates. If one person thinks that something may be true enough to place a small bet for example a fiver, tells his mate and he tells his mate and so on all those fivers mount up and the bookies will shorten their odds to reduce their liability. The odds for the top 3 candidates have continually shortened over the past couple of days. Skybet even use Sky sports to rumour spread in order to create betting patterns. Betting patterns on players/managers coming and going are notoriously inaccurate compared with horse/greyhound racing etc. This is purely because of the rumour factor which influence their decisions.
I am just wondering if, according to the Evening Post Brendan is Liverpools No.1 choice, why are they meeting with Martinez today after making him an offer on Sunday? All seems a little confoluted for my liking but hey ho you never know in football!! To answer the question though Di Matteo for me.
Yes, I agree with everything you said. But in this case he is still favorite even after all the denials. To me that says something. You seem to be saying that despite all the denials that people are still backing Rodgers, But why would they do that? Obviously because they don't believe the denials and know that if Liverpool really want Rodgers then they have a chance of getting him. Though of course not certain. But I hope Brendan stays and the odds are proved wrong.
Think you are putting 2 and 2 together and getting 5 mate, Martinez will be taking up their offer, he is seeing them again today, and I would lay odds on him accepting the job
Because we have a manager called Brendan Rodgers! You and Superswan are two peas in a pod, you appear to relish the chance to bring people down, and you are basically saying that Brendan is leaving with no facts at hand, oh except shortening odds with the bookies.
