Absoutely no stand outs at Haydock....very disappointed, but. Citrus Star looks very interesting over at Goodwood. Nice mark, cousrse form, going ideal and Billy booked. at 9/1 looks excellent e/w value.
Another to cinsider is May contain Nuts. Too big at 12's in my humble opinion! Could be a nice e/w double!! Good luck chaps!!!
Roger Varian saddles his first two year old of the season tomorrow MORAWIJ 2.55. Both his juveniles won at Haydock last season so take the hint.
15.10 Goodwood- Bonnie Brae-5/1 Just the one bet for me tomorrow- she ran a blinder in the victoria cup coming 2nd to Global Village. Which I will be sure that the horse behind her that day will go on to win this season, which is only good for this talented mare. She has gone up 4lbs for that race but she seems to have a pretty good record in coming back quickly for another race. The horse has 33.33% win rate and combined with Ryan Moore on board who has a 50% strike rate on her , and intrestingly she is 5/1 with most bookies but Ladbrokes have her at 7/2 jf with Primeaveal so they know how talented she is.
8.40 Sandown Buzkashi 8/1 This one looks a very big price in my opinion. Previously with Roger Varian, this 3 year old has moved to the excellent David Lanigan stable and making her handicap debut off a mark of 74 he could very well be a rather nicely handicapped animal. Buzkashi made her debut last July in what turned out to be a useful looking maiden as he finished a 2L beaten 3rd at Newmarket's July course over the 7f trip. Sitting close enough to the pace, Buzkashi got slightly outpaced before looking a bit green when asked to quicken on as she stayed on towards the finish and it was a very promising debut in my eyes. The form of that race looks very strong with the winner Fallen For You going down by only 0.5L in a Group 2 on her next start and she is a very talented animal for the John Gosden team. The 2nd Rhytmic was a very impressive 3.75L winner on her next start which solidifies the form. On her next start, Buzkashi was upped to 1m and sent off favourite in a similar event at Leicester. After occupying a sit just behind the leaders, Buzkashi was angled off the rail to make her challenge when she clipped heels and stumbled very badly with the horse in front of her and she was lucky not to go down. After that, she was given an easy time of things by jockey Neil Callan as she went down by just under 4L. She hadn't been asked anything at that stage and whether she would have won is a mystery but she certainly would have gone close. The winner that day My Queenie was officially rated 93 before that contest after getting beaten 1.75L in her previous start in a Group 3 and for Buzkashi to go off favourite says a lot about how she was fancied prior to that race. My Queenie has proved to be a very solid performer in the high 80s since and it was clearly a strong race. Moreover the 4th Saytara, who was a debutant that day, won on her only subsequent beating Dulkashe by 1L and that rival has since won off 77 so the form of that race stacks up well. On her final start, Buzkashi ran in the Tatersalls Million 2YO Fillies Trophy and I think it again demonstrates that connections hold her in high regard. After getting rather wound up in the prelims beforehand, she was given a sympathetic ride by Steve Drowne when he knew her chance was gone. In truth she was probably outclassed that day, but the 7f trip and her getting fractious prior to the race starting certainly wouldn't have aided her cause. She's been absent since last October and she makes her 3 year old debut today in Class 5 handicap for new trainer David Lanigan. I think on the basis of her runs to date that her opening mark of 74 is potentially extremely lenient. Although she faces a tough enough task taking on a 4 year old and 5 year old (who have to carry 12lb and 14lb more respectively due to weight allowances), I still think she could be too good for these rivals. She's stepped up to 1m1f for the first time tomorrow and I definitely think the extra distance will suit and will bring about further improvement. She wears a hood for the first time today which should hopefully both focus and relax her bring about some improvement. She holds an entry in the Tatersalls Millions 3YO Cup next month which shows her connections still think quite a bit about her, and the owners have persevered with her despite moving trainer. With her trainer in blistering form with 3 winners from his last 8 runners, I'm very confident of a big showing for Buzkashi and I hope she can break her maiden in fine style at what I consider to be a very generous price.
Anyone remember me tipping Minidress as value in the Nell Gwyn and saying whatever she does she will improve up in trip? Well I noticed she was running so I have had to point it out. Not only does she step up in trip as she has been crying out for even since last season, she also drops in class. 8th in the Group 3 Nell Gwyn does not sound great, but she was hampered at the crucial stage when they quickened up and she was staying on as well as anything at the line. So do with it what you will, you might think there are some better alternatives out there but I suspect 11/2 is value and might not be around for long. Godolphin did very well at Goodwood last season and they might have an opportunity to pick up from where they left off here. 3.45 Goodwood MINIDRESS 11/2 (NAP)
Morning all. Having troubles with this site on Internet Explorer so have had to switch to Chrome - anyone else having trouble ?. I know IE is ****e before you all start but have always used it and probably always will. Really sweet on ATTENBROUGH today and will get a mini write up done soon. Happy retirement to Henrietta Knight.
I was given Attenborough as a horse to follow when I looked round Noseda's yard a few weeks back but he ran like a drain last time. Obviously you would hope he is capable of better than what he showed.
Zen . I remember you putting him up. I was very impressed with his maiden win and he went off a very short price fav on his return. I thought he shaped as if in need of the run that day. A mark of 80 should be workable imo.
There are several better browsers than IE now but can't help but stick with it as I have used it since I started studying ICT years ago. The new layout is awesome for IE shame the performance levels are not up with the rest.
Morning, a couple for me today, Wetherby 5.05 Ruler Of All 12/1 e/w Goodwood 3.10 Primaeval 3/1 Best of luck all
I stuck up a couple of runners on yesterday's thread that I like the look of. Lelaps in the 7.05 at Sandown and Western Bound in Wetherby's 2.45. Lelaps is a Botti horse that's been well backed. I got 7/1 but now 5's and 9/2 available. Western Bound is 5/2. To go with those two I'm backing Morilles at 12/1 each way in the 8.20 at Salisbury. This one has run three maidens over inadequate trips and the form of the race last time out looks really good. He runs off an opening mark of 67 which I think will allow him to be very competitive tonight.
7.35 Sandown Tingo in the Tale 20/1 I like the look of David Arbuthnot's 3 year old who is pretty unexposed and if ignoring his last effort which came on barely raceable LTO I think he looks fairly overpriced at 20s. In his 6 starts to date, TITT has proved himself to be a rather useful animal and I expect there is a lot more to come. On debut back in July of last year over 7f, this gelding ran a decent enough race in which the talented Group 3 winning Crius won as he finished about 7.5L beaten back in 6th. He looked like he lacked a bit of racecourse experience and looked certain to come from that effort. On his 2nd start, TITT broke his maiden when landing a Maiden at Brighton stepped up to a mile on soft ground. Again, he looked to still be learning but he was forward enough to land this contest going away when scoring by 1.75L, with the front two pulling 5L clear of the remainder. Although the form of that race is only ok, he showed a likeable battling quality to draw clear from Sheila's Buddy when she drew back alongside. On his 3rd start and after being assigned a handicap mark of 75, Tingo in the Tale ran a very admirable second over 1m at Newmarket on good to soft ground as he finished 1.25L behind Devdas. In a large field, he got a decent enough passage through from the back and was never nearer at the finish, demonstrating a step up in trip would suit. The form of that race is very solid, with Devdas performing well off a 6lb higher mark in better races. Moreover, the 4th Glee ran a cracker in the Tattersill Millions filly's 2YO race subsequently and the 5th Salford Art ran a very good race to beaten only 5L in a Group 1 subsequently. 3 starts back in October and upped to a mark of 78, TITT was upped to 9f on good ground at Newmarket and it was a strange performance. After travelling into the race very strongly, his stride shortened significantly and it looked as if he either didn't handle the good ground or something went wrong. Mizbah, who finished just behind Tingo in the Tale on his handicap debut and who reopposes tomorrow on 2lb worse terms, finished 3rd in this race so it clearly wasn't a true showing of his potential. This was his last start as a 2 year old and given he wasn't seen for 6 months either of my 2 theories are very possible. Two starts back, TITT made his AW debut at Kempton where he was a massive eye catcher in my eyes over 1m on his reappearance run. In his traditional style of sitting off the pace, James Doyle brought him around the outside and under only hands and heels riding he stayed on past beaten horses to finish a 4L beaten 5th. Considering Doyle didn't go for the whip once, it looked clear to me that this was just to get a run under his belt after a long absence and he certainly appeared to have a lot of horse left under him.Furthermore, the step up in trip again looked like it would definitely benefit him. LTO Tingo in the Tale was stepped upped to 1m2f for the first time in a Class 3 event and in my eyes it looks his ideal trip. Off a mark of 78, he was very well fancied by connections as he was backed from 14/1 into 6/1 before going off 15/2 on the heavy ground at todays track but he put in an absolute shocker and I'm taking a bit of a risk ignoring this effort. On barely raceable ground, he was asked to close by James Doyle before being eased 2f out and he was nearly brought to a walk about 1.5f out. He either couldn't act on extremely heavy ground or he didn't feel right to Doyle. Today he's again tried at the 1m2f trip at Sandown which shows that connections share my opinion that he will relish the step up in trip. He's been dropped 3lb for his last effort and he's back to the mark of 75 where he posted an excellent 2nd on handicap debut. He faces good ground tomorrow which is a slight concern as he may not have acted on it in his last start as a two year old but I think the price factors in these concerns. He's dropped back into Class 4 company today and faces some pretty unexposed rivals but he is relatively unexposed himself and I think he'll prove to be better than his current mark of 75. Jim Crowley takes the ride and he has a 22% strike rate for trainer David Arbuthnot and is riding fantastically at the moment and he is a really positive booking in my eyes. Another concern I have is that Arbuthnot's horses aren't in the best of form at present and he's actually without a flat winner since last August (since February over jumps). He was well backed LTO so connections were obviously hopeful of a big run and although he won't be a big bet from me I hope he can bounce back to form and run a very good race.
5.15 Haydock Royal Trooper 20/1 I really think the price of Royal Trooper is a bit mad at 20/1 and I'm pretty confident of a big showing from this 6 year old. James Given's gelding has dropped back to a mark of 79 which I think makes him look rather well handicapped. Last year, Royal Trooper made a reappearance after an 8 month break at Thirsk and came on an awful lot for that effort as he won on his next start at Doncaster over 12f off a mark of 77 on good to firm ground. For his win, he travelled into the race very nicely and had to be kept up to his work by jockey Freddy Tylicki as he went on to score by a rather comfortable 0.75L, with the front two drawing about 10L clear of the remainder in the Class 4 handicap. The 2nd that day ran respectably enough off a 6lb higher mark on his only subsequent start and its not terrible form. After this, Royal Trooper ran 8 days later off a revised mark of 83 where he ran a good 2L beaten 4th over 13f at Hamilton. He travelled into the race extremely powerfully and Tylicki hit the front about 2.5f out and I think he idled a bit out in front as he was eventually swallowed up inside the final furlong. The form of that race looks pretty solid with the winner scoring impressively on his next start off a 6lb higher mark upped to 2m whilst the 3rd Union Island won off a 1lb higher mark 2 starts after this effort and it was a fine effort by Royal Trooper. After running a couple of shockers in his next two starts, he bounced back to some sort of form when finishing a good 6L beaten 3rd at Hamilton off a mark of 82. Under Julie Burke that day, he travelled extremely strongly again which is characteristic of this gelding and Burke found herself out in front about 3f out. He looked a bit lost out in front and got swallowed up by two rivals as he dropped back. Although I think the winner would have won regardless, I think Royal Trooper would have finished a lot closer if he was played a bit later and he looks a ride that needs to be judged to perfection. After a solid performance over 12f at Thirsk after this, Royal Trooper ran an absolute cracker in a Class 2 handicap at today's track over 14f 3 starts ago in September last year on good to soft ground. After being held up, Royal Trooper was a fair bit behind when Freddy Tylicki asked him to close with about 3f to go and he stayed on all the way to the line to go down by 0.5L. It really was an excellent effort and it dispelled any myths that he is merely a strong travelling bridle horse in my eyes. The form of that race looks pretty strong with the winner subsequently finishing a very narrowly beaten 2nd off a 3lb higher mark this year whilst the 5th Ithoughtitwasover ran a couple of very solid 2nds after this race last year before improving this year to win 2 from 2, the latest being an emphatic victory in a Listed contest. He put in a disappointing effort after this and he took a 7 month break before making his reappearance run at Doncaster earlier this month, where he was clearly out to get a run under his belt as he was given a very easy time of things under todays jockey Paul Mulrennan. Considering he is only 2lb above his last winning mark, 2lb below his excellent 2nd in a Class 2 in September and 4lb below a good 4th at Hamilton last year, I think Royal Trooper looks well handicapped off a mark of 79. From his draw in stall 2, I'll be very interested to see how he is ridden tomorrow. Given the 12f trip is probably as short as he wants it and considering he stays 15f, Royal Trooper may be instructed to use his extra stamina to try and make all like he did back in 2010 when successful twice under this jockey. However, I really hope they don't as this horse has a high cruising speed and his last win came at this distance. I'm delighted to see blinkers applied for the first time tomorrow given his tendency to idle out in front and I really think they could bring out considerable improvement in him if they maintain his focus for the entire race. He clearly goes very well at the track with 2 very narrow defeats in 3 starts and this Class 4 handicap looks a lot easier than his run in the Class 2 last year. With trainer James Given in good form and the reappearance run likely to have him spot on, I'm confident of a big showing from Royal Trooper and I think he looks incredibly overpriced at 20s.
Elembridge King 14/1 Tippereary 8:30, Morning guy's, this horse is having it's first run for the new stable today with whom i gave you Mandy Carrol, who won at 10/1 last month and once again they are expecting a good race by this fella whom was consistent if not spectatcular in a few point to points, conditions and trip are suitable and at 14/1 he could be an each way bet to nothing with the hope he get's his head in front although he does have to overcome some other potentially decent performers in Gale force Oscar and Dunbrovnic but as i said, at 14/1, should be backed e/w. Only horse i'll back today and goodluck to everyone who does have a bet.
a glorious day here in the Derbyshire Dales, too good to be sitting inside looking for likely winners. Regular readers may have seen that I missed a John Mackie 14/1 winner when at work earlier this week. I was in a local pub last night and asked a couple of guys about the Mackie yard. One of them mentioned Arizona John who he knew was out this week. He said the trainer was happy with his progress last time out and just seemed to run out of steam subsequently taking second place. I see that he is in the 5;15 Haydock and dropped down slightly in distance. As I dont really know the chap with the info and not too good at reading form in conjuction with other runners I wondered if anyone has any views on the chances. Currently 6/1
