As someone who has done a bit of data analysis I know that you can dress stats up to back up your argument either way, but I have been looking at the managers being linked with our vacancy and their previous records (I have discounted Bruce and Clark as I really cannot see either applying). Below I have listed their win % as winning matches is most likely to lead to a successful season. Steve Tilson 38% Lawrie Sanchez 29% Martin Allen 40% Sean OâDriscoll 36% Paul Ince 43% Micky Adams 37% Andy Scott 36% Mark Yates 40% Mark Stimson 33% Dennis Wise 40% No stats for Steve Constantine and Mark Robson has no managerial experience. Of those listed with stats only Sanchez, Wise and Yates have not led a team to promotion and Yates may yet achieve that via the play offs this year. So it appears that really isnât much to choose between many of these candidates. OâDriscoll and Adams have managed over twice as many games as Ince and all have had good spells and bad. Out of the above list of 12 there are really only 2 I would not even entertain (Sanchez and Stimson). Of the other 10 I wouldnât be that unhappy with any of them.
Don't know why Stimson is on the list, it does show the two I said about Ince and Wise would be good choices.
I only included Stimson as he was on the vote list, personally I would have Ronnie Jepson back before Stimson! (but we would have to be desperate!)
Jepson managed mid table in League 1 two years running with the least resources of any manager in recent years.
Nice stats, it shows that we're doomed. Hess this seson had a win ratio of 43.478% The win ratio's of teams in the top 3. Swindon 63.043% Shrewsbury 56.521% Crawley 50.000% Aren't stats a wonderful thing.
Agreed all the coaches who have led teams to automatic promotion have all had seasons where they ave over 55% wins, but in order for the average to come down they have also had spells where they average comfortably less than 30% (normally following the promotion!)
I was being very tongue in cheek when I posted those stats, but if you want to include whole careers Hess would be on 45.57% which includes 4 years in the Championship. I think that looks better than all the candidates so far.
What a pointless and totally misleading form of analysis. On this measure some oik like Steve Evans would be regarded as performing better than, say, Roberto Martimez. Laughable. When you look at Lawrie Sanchez's career, spent saving no hopers from relegation, you have to conclude that when adjusted for circumstances his win percentage is the most impressive of this list even if it is the lowest number.
bristol407- you're not being fair. Fans are just killing time during the waiting season. If you're not careful I'll send you a pm of the post that brb inflicted on the Plymouth fans - (Exeters relegation)
I am sorry that you find this pointless and misleading. Winning matches is I would suggest the most important barometer of a teams /managers performance, I can appreciate that a certain amount of appreciation of the situation at a club should be considered along side this, other factors such as the league played in and finances available are also very important. However a manager like Sanchez is clearly a good “firefighter” but does not seem to be able to transfer to this to the team when managing a club over a whole season. As all the managers listed have spent the majority of their managerial careers in the lower leagues your comment regarding comparing Martinez with that pillock Evans is in my opinion somewhat wide of the mark, but opinions are the nature of sites such as this and you of course are entitled to yours.
Opinions are being expressed right left and centre which is fine. It really does invite ridicule however when you quote statistics from different leagues and different circumstances and then use them for measures of relative performance. As a generalisation, the higher the standard of the competition and the less resources available require the superior management performance but their win percentage may be lower. I have no particular affinity for Sanchez but, at least on paper, I reckon he has produced the best match by match performances of anyone on your list. Is he the right man for Gills? Probably not because the selection criteria need to be forward looking. Top measures for Scally might be ability to find and develop young players, managing on a limited budget and being able to stay in League 1 (not just get there). I suspect win percentage might come a bit lower on the priority list but I doubt if it would be ignored.
Not being critical of the tread at all but win percentage means nothing to me. The circumstance they got those wins in however is important. For example Lawrie Sanchez is usually managing teams in decline at the bottom of the table fighting to get anything out of a game never mind a win whereas O'Driscoll was managing a team on the rise getting double promotion so was obviously going to win a lot of games!
Interesting thoughts and thanks for taking the time to place your comments, I am obviously in the minority thinking that a manager who wins most of his matches at the level he is competing would be a better bet than one who doesn’t. I assume that O’Driscolls abilities as a manager had nothing to do with the successive promotions his team achieved and that maybe there is a reason why the teams managed by Sanchez are always near the bottom of the league (he hasn’t always been employed to just save a team from relegation). I do understand that there alot of other considerations and situations that are involved in a winning team, and other reasons for appointing a manager. Looking at our situation we have missed out on the play offs by 1 place 2 years running, we have a squad of players that many people thought should have made the play offs at least, so we seem to tick the box of a team that needs a manager who can take a group of players who are underperforming as a team and through his coaching abilities and tactical know how get us performing better, and I would suggest that someone with a history of winning matches and getting teams promoted would be a good choice.
