3rd at 15/2. If I hadn't been on my way to England with no internet access I would have laid that off. Missed an opportunity there.
Should really leave this race alone but I've been tempted by PPs 2/1 Ugo in the 16.35 Plumpton so just a modest £100 win.
£11,360. Going down. Only £1,360 in profit now. Still playing with the bookies' money but soon won't be at this rate.
Interesting thread Ron, and one I'd not noticed before (as far as I remember!) To do what you proposed in reality you need to set out an endgame. That could be a fixed amount of profit, or time related, but without it you will just continue to bet and the law of logic and bookies guarantees you will lose. Of course you could still lose all in chasing a fixed profit, but at least you give yourself an out, should you reach your goal. The debate about value is also interesting, in as much as the different perceptions. As far as I'm concerned value is not something that can or should be applied to betting - which in itself is a risk business, and therefore not to be "valued" for anything except the brief moments of happyness when you win Put it this way. The BEST way to study form, is to cover up the odds forecast and just look at the relative form lines. Make your selection, and only then try to find the bookmaker offering the best "value". You won't be able to do that of course, the temptation to look at the odds will be too great, and it is too ingrained in our betting routines. Or put more simply, the predicted odds can - and do - affect our study of form, adding in what shouldn't actually be relevant. The odds forecast is only someone else's opinion of a horses chances of winning. And who says they are better than you? Blimey - I got a bit serious there
Surely if you are a profitable punter, no end game just means that you win indefinitely? Why does the law of logic and bookies guarantee you will lose? Also, I think value is crucial. If you are so good at picking winners that price is irrelevant then you are on to a winner. However, you are on to a loser if you are backing 4/1 chances at 3/1. In the long term you are going to lose. What you should be doing is creating your own tissue, and betting on those which offer the best value relative to the bookies prices. That might mean you are betting on a horse you don't fancy but you will make money if you bet on horses that are 33/1 but should be 20/1 and you will lose if you bet on 2/1 chances that should be 3/1. At the moment I tend to pick winners and then see what price they are relative to how confident I am and what price I was expecting. It's worked for me so far but I appreciate that I would need to be far more precise if I was too take it more seriously.
The odds have no bearing on my selections. Having made my choice I then look at the odds and make a very subjective judgement (to be honest) as to whether it is good value. For example when I selected Last Suspect for the Grand National, on looking at the odds I laughed my head off when I saw the forecast odds of 66/1 and told all my family and friends to get on. I tend to expect the odds on a horse I have selected to shorten which is why I always take the best odds available as early as possible. Basically, if I think the odds are generous then that's good enough for me, I freely admit there is nothing scientific about this process but generally the odds can be so varied across bookmakers that there is clearly value with some bookmakers, relative to others. If I were doing it for real I would almost certainly take early odds and lay off for a smaller, but guaranteed, profit wherever possible. Now watch my latest selection drift.
have i missed something or did you have profit of 1,360 and bet 400? thats means your still 960 up matey
No too happy with the first 2 races. Duntle was not ridden out for a place and Soumillon rode a stinker on Dabirsim. Ran him into horses early on then got him boxed in and squeezed for room towards the end. The horse may not stay a mile but the jockey couldn't have tried harder to get him beaten. Let's hope Light Heavy can get me out of trouble. Edit. Thank you Light Heavy. Just evened me up. £1800 staked and £1800 returned. Should have had the SP this time though (15/8). Never mind. Still 960 in profit.
7/2 seems a measly price in a 14 runner sprint handicap but it's the best price on offer for Hoof It so I'll take that with £100 and have another £100 at SP, just in case money comes for something and allows him to drift.
