Even by Newmarket standards, this was the coldest Guineas meeting that I have ever attended. What will definitely stick in the memory is the way that the drizzle started at about 3:30 on Sunday afternoon whilst awaiting the delayed start to the 1000 Guineas and never stopped; yet driving home West along the A14 the cloud disappeared after Cambridge and the journey was unbroken sunshine until it set. Just a few notes on some of the horses that I looked at, which may (or may not) be of interest to readers. Please note that I am considered (by some) to be totally anti Aidan O'Brien so offering him the best of luck with Maybe in the Oaks was a totally cynical move on my part (but he did shake my hand, so no hard feelings). Masked Marvel (J Gosden) - I am not suire that he was entirely wound up (this will sound like a repeat by the end of this piece about Gosden's horses) but it is hard to say how good the race will turn out to be as it oozed quality on paper but was an unsatisfactory race in reality. Abtaal (J-C Rouget) - arguably the form pick in the Guineas but did not look happy to be over here. Having not seen him before, perhaps he is always like that. Will probably hose up at Longchamp now! Camelot (A O'Brien) - did not look very big, which perhaps means that he is still growing and there is better to come. His Derby backers will hope so! Fencing (J Gosden) - I thought about backing him each way in the Guineas until I saw him. He was another Gosden horse that looked like something had been left to work on. Will he head for the Dante? Lots of questions here. French Fifteen (N Clement) - the chestnut looked the best of the three French contenders before the race (and turned out that way in the race). Only time will tell if appearances are deceptive. Top Offer (R Charlton) - is this definitely a three-year-old? Physically there is plenty of scope for improvement so perhaps he was pitched in at the deep end on his second start. Noble Mission (Sir H Cecil) - I am sure there is some reason for the hood (I am just ignorant about what it would be) but he did not seem anything like his brother except in the race itself. Izzi Top (J Gosden) - somebody tell Mr Gosden that he needs to pay me to never back his filly. She wins when I pass her over and she looked like she would need the race so I left her alone. She only loses when my money is on (two third places last year) so what should I do if she contests the Middleton at York? Khawlah (S bin Suroor) - definitely one to avoid. She looked like a scrawny two-year-old, not a four-year-old and she got very warm along her neck despite it being cold and damp (unlike the Dubai weather that she last won in). She ran like she looked. Primevere (R Charlton) - looked fantastic and deservedly won best turned out, but the way she ran says she does not like soft ground (not encountered it before). Lightening Pearl (G Lyons) - looked great before the race, so no excuses there; but after cruising for seven furlongs I think she did not stay (and would not have caught the winner anyway). Homecoming Queen (A O'Brien) - did not look like a potential Guineas winner beforehand so I guess that shows what I know! She could have been the lead pony cantering the favourite to the start! Terrific pedigree so they'll be ecstatic with the best black type going! Hazel Lavery (C Hills) - would have been the pick on appearance but difficult to judge in the rain. Finishing a remote second may mean that the winner is great or the ground was everything. Arsaadi (W Haggas) - there was plenty of money for her but I do not know why as she did not catch the eye in the paddock. When I saw the betting I had to look in the racecard!
I thought last year that Camelot lacked scope...quite small but appears even smaller with his tall pilot on top. I must admit to being very impressed.The way he picked up from the 3 pole and was slightly interruped in his run bodes well. He looks balanced and has a bit of toe.He should improve and was well on top toward the finish..going on if anything. Re the 1000..I'm clueless tbh.I've looked at this several times over and still undecided...time and sections are impressive but something leads me to believe that all that that glitters isn't gold on this occasion.
QM..what did you make of the Godolphin fillies? I must admit Discourse really impressed me last year but that effort was rank...Not giving up on her just yet..she looks like a 3-y-o.
Discourse was knocked out of the race very early on. Either that or she ran up the back of something. Couldn't see exactly what happened but the race was over from that moment. Wouldn't surprise me if she picked up an injury.
I thought French Fifteen ran a terriffic race in defeat in the Guineas and would expect him to be involved in the top mile races this season. For me he's the one to take out of the race at a mile with Camelot stepping up in trip.
It would be interesting to know if one side of the course was faster than the other as Hermival ran a cracker in third on the far side, particularly if that was the unfavoured side.
Ron, she was my fancy but she seemed to be floundering in the going after only a furlong- her action was all over the place. I don't know what was wrong but she had absolutely no chance, even at that stage. Strange race, wasn't it. The only thing I can say about the winner is that her previous defeat of Fire Lily- who had been a good second to Maybe previously- was way beyond anything she had achieved before. Therefore there's just a chance that she may be a massive improver, but that's not normal, given the ordinary form and large quantity of races she'd already had. She was certainly impressive on the day, though, and made them look like selling platers.
The one’s that I would highlight, with an eye to the future, are: AL KAZEEM – looked a very classy act in winning the ‘Jockey Club Stakes’ and only top notchers can quicken in the way that he did. Was a shell of a horse last term but now seems to have filled his frame and developed into a top quality animal. Should step up to Group 1 level now and looks capable of winning his fair share of these ‘top table’ races, this term, based on this effort. HOMECOMING QUEEN – the general consensus since this filly’s win has been to knock her and pick holes in the form but quite simply she won a Classic by 9 lengths and looked awesome as she galloped her rivals into submission. After setting off at a very fair clip the fact that Homecoming Queen was then able to travel and quicken so impressively was very eyecatching to this correspondent. Only really good horses can do this. I think this filly, who incidentally has the most loveliest of names, is very, very good. DEIA SUNRISE – runner-up in the meetings ‘lucky last’ I thought this gelding of old boy Gosden’s ran a very good seasonal debut. After being headed he showed tremendous tenacity to fight back and his astute trainer should place him well this term. Ran off 79 on Sunday and provided he isn’t clopped by the old handicapper should be a leading force in handicaps this term. A Cambridgeshire type, perhaps???
Horses can develop an amazing amount from 2 to 3 and beyond. The horse we took as a 5yo didn't even look fit to race but after a year with us she looked a different animal. She has grown in confidence and build and looks like a real racehorse now (whether we'll ever find out is another story). Point I'm making is maybe this filly was far from ready to race and was being put on a racecourse as an education. She will probably continue to develop and maybe this is a completely different animal and we should forget last year. 5 of her races were over 5/6fur on fast ground. She next ran on the AW but her last 3 races in UK were over 7/8fur on soft/very soft/heavy going. One she was beaten a neck and the other 2 she won easily and comfortably. There were signs that the penny had dropped and she was getting the trip/going she needed. AOB must have seen something as he sent her to the Breeders' Cup and was his only entry in the GREY GOOSE BREEDERS' CUP JUVENILE FILLIES (GRADE 1) (2YO FILLIES) (DIRT) with Ryan Moore on top. She came last and maybe didn't enjoy the passage and/or dirt. First time out as a 3yo she only beat 2 home but she was only 6/1 third fav behind stable companion Twirl. Next time out she made all to win the 1000Gns trial in Ireland to beat Fire Lily. This was far away her best effort. Based on her tail end form as a 2yo and her victory in the trial it is a bit surprising (with hindsight I must add) that she was allowed to start at 25/1 as one could argue that, without improvement and ignoring her fitness advantage, she could reasonably have been expected to finish within 3l of red hot favourite Maybe. The fact that she finished 10l in front of Maybe suggest either she has made even further improvement since the trial or Maybe has not trained on/didn't appreciate the going. The filly that finished second does complicate any logic. Two things are certain. 1. The times indicate that she has come on a bundle 2. She goes exceptionally well in the going A doubt is whether she will be anywhere near as effective on fast going.
I'm not one for betting ante post, but surely Homecoming Queen is a huge price for the Oaks at 8/1.* She won the guineas by 9 lenghs, and she is a half sister to AOBs best ever 1m4 horse Dylan Thomas, yet Camelot scrapes home in the colts equivalent and he gets quotes of 5/4 for the Derby.* Am I missing something here, are people writing off Homecoming Queen, just because she was the 2nd string? They shouldn't write her off, as quite often AOBs 2nd string in classics turns out to be the best horse. Her half brother Dylan Thomas for example was 25/1 and the so called 3rd string in the Derby, yet he turned out to be by far AOBs best 3yo that year*
My main worry Shergar is that the ground may well come up fast for the Oaks and so far she hasn't done too well on it. Admittedly that may not have been the reason for her defeats as they were over 5/6f but, she has yet to prove herself on fast ground. Also, regardless of being related to DT, to me she doesn't look bred for 12f, her sire being a top miler, her dam's sire being a miler and his sire being a sprinter. However, having said that, Diesis did produce the Epsom Oaks and Irish Oaks winners Diminuendo and Ramruma. On balance there would be enough risk in there (for me) not to take ante post odds on the Oaks.
First name I thought of as I was writing that Oddy (purely in terms of progression). Of course, Harbinger didn't run at all as a 2yo.
Ragusa improved more than Harbinger from two to three. A late foal, he was disappointingly beaten at Chester by the ordinary My Myosotis- in his first race as a three year old. He then ran third in Relko's Derby and then won the Irish derby impressively- when Relko was withdrawn lame. In his next race, he deputised for his injured stablemate, Noblesse, and hacked up- in the King George- followed by an equally easy win in the St Leger. He was certainly one of Ireland's greatest post-war three year old colts, but his stable undoubtedly believed Noblesse was much better.
I thought that for my 500th post, I'd do something that might throw the cat amongst the pigeons. Some interesting comments to respond to: When I was near the paddock ring and the pre-parade ring, there were no jockeys to give the horses scale, but I felt that Camelot was still quite small and looked like he still had plenty of frame to fill out. That surely means that the best is still to come. Neither of the Godolphi fillies really caught the eye beforehand. A few days before the Guineas, I had expected Frankie to choose Discourse as her efforts as a two-year-old gave the impression that she could be anything as a three-year-old whereas Lyric Of Light was the form pick. The fact that they both ran abysmally in the race leaves lots of questions abouth whether they have trained on or whether they hated the ground. Both are Street Cry fillies so the ground may turn out to be the issue. Not sure if he is entered in the Prix de la Poule d'Essai des Poulains (French 2000 Guineas) on Sunday - I would not put it past them to run him again so quickly. Camelot's price is purely the result of the current ante-post liabilities. He was only 3/1 or 4/1 for the Derby last Christmas and the doubles are running on. Also, it would be hard to imagine Homecoming Queen being allowed a soft lead in the Oaks after what she did at Newmarket and after last year's Oaks winner being allowed to steal a march. My suspicion is that Homecoming Queen may not stay although it is too early to say whether Holy Roman Emperor will be an influence for stamina and she was not stopping at Newmarket. The time was not too bad for soft ground so she may just have speed and be a miler.
