Daily Thread- Friday 4th May

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stick

stick

Bumper King
Jan 17, 2012
18,609
11,653
113
Maidenhead, Berkshire
I am having a small wager in the Musselburgh juvenile at 2.30 today. I know the Johnston horse will be and is all the rage but I am siding wityh Bryan Smarts BOXING SHADOWS 9-2 for a couple of reasons. He is a nice early January foal. The yard do very well with their juveniles and the yard have an outstanding record with their two year olds at this track.
 
4.10 Wolverhampton – Nickel Silver 28/1 E.W

Like Stick the only one horse I like the look of today is trained by Bryan Smart. Nickel Silver is currently priced up at 28/1 and for me he is massively overpriced. I find it very interesting that his trainer has persevered with this horse when he has obviously had a few setbacks which would explain his 478 day absence. On his day Nickel Silver is a very capable horse and having slipped to a mark of 81 (last winning mark 92) he has to have place claims at least if fully fit and returning to form. He obviously is a risky selection but at the price is worth a go in my opinion.
 
Look at the herds following one of the best trainers around <laugh> good to see old Nickel back out.

Nothing for me today, not remotely interested. Saving my dough for tomorrow and the French raider.
 
Nass <rofl> you seen Sundays card- disappointing imo as is Goodwood tomorrow as well. Only Newmarket worth looking at ffs.
 
Good morning all... Just a quick glance at the cards and one i think will go close is Judicious in the 3.30 at Muss... Unlucky in running lto at Doncaster and can come on for that. Dalgleish has had a good start to the year without hitting the winners going close with Circuitous and Joshua The First placing yesterday and maybe its time for him to hit the winning trail...

Judicious, 7/2 @ Mussleburgh...

Good luck to all...<cheers>
 
Stick you seen that Fahey has your fav hurdler in training now ? - running on the flat at Thirsk tmz
 
If the going has good in it I think we have some interesting horses to pick from in the big races.
 
Same old faces around here today, not much going on here these days, but best of luck all the same to those who play, im sure theres some biggies out there to be had
 
Interestingly Tom Dascombe/Kingscote sends a lone traveller up to Musselburgh today, in the 2.30 CAPO ROSSO 20/1 (EW) may be worth a small stakes bet and HOTOTO 16/1 for Ryan and Makin the same.
 
afternoon guys/girls, one from my gg alerts today is DESERT STRIKE 4.10 wolves available 4/1 with most firms. lets see if i can get a winner......pleasssseeee. good luck if you play
 
4.10 Wolves

Titus Gent 16/1

Quite like the look of Jeremy Gask's 7 year old whose 99 days off the track will have done him a world of good. Looking through his form, its a bit surprising that he has yet to win over 5f with all 10 of his career wins coming over 6f but I certainly think he has the speed to land his first victory at the minimum distance. Titus Gent was last seen in January over 6f in Kempton which was on the back of a busy campaign and given Gask has given him a little break would tend to validate this opinion. Two starts back over 5f at Kempton in January Titus Gent ran a very nice race to be touched off by just 1.5L off a mark of 81. He broke a fraction slowly and had to come from near last but was eating up the ground with every stride, emphasising that he's probably best over 6f. However, if things fall right, I have no doubt he's good enough for 5f. The form of that race looks solid with the winner coming out subsequently to win off a 4lb higher mark and the 2nd has put in some solid form off the same mark. The 5th Desert Strike, who re-opposes today and who is as short as 7/2, is 2lb worse off at the weights with Titus Gent today. Moreover, Raul Da Silva's claim means Desert Strike has 7lb to find with this selection and on the basis of this run its hard to see the vast difference in prices.

Titus Gent's last win came under todays jockey back in October at the track over 6f off a mark of 78, and today he is only 1lb higher than this success. That day, I thought it was a very impressive performance by this 7 year old and Da Silva seemed to have a fair bit of horse left under him as he was pushed out to win by 0.75L. The form of that race is consistent, but not brilliant, but it was the attitude I really latched on to. As I said earlier, I think the break will have sharpened him up quite a bit and he's proven in the past that an absence is no problem when finishing only a very narrowly beaten 2nd after a 6 month break. Trainer Jeremey Gask comes here in good form registering a couple of winners in the past few days which is a definite bonus. Racing here today off a mark of 79, he is only 1lb above his last win and I certainly think he's well enough handicapped on the basis of that and his running off a higher mark 2 starts ago. From the draw in stall 6, I hope he breaks out well and is able to grab a sit just in behind on the rail which should hopefully lead to his first 5f victory at what is a price that vastly overstates his chances in my opinion.
 
6.25 Kilbeggan

Cool Kid 25/1

This 4 year has a bit of a story behind him. He started out his career with the excellent Ger Lyons and only ended up ever having one start for him as he appeared a little bit of a nuisance as he refused to load on his final two occasions. However, its Ger Lyons comments posted on his Facebook page that first got me interested in Cool Kid. Prior to his proposed runs where he didn't enter the stalls, Lyons said "Cool Kid is a lovely big horse who has a knee action so should handle soft ground. If he does he'll run very well. Same family as Frederick Engels" and followed it up with "I like Cool Kid alot but he gets claustrophobic in stalls". As a result of his reluctance to load, he was subsequently sold and is has now embarked upon a career over hurdles as he was sold into the Eoin Griffin yard.

Cool Kid made his debut for Griffin at the Christmas Festival in Leopardstown where he refused at the last after being well beaten. That day he jumped horrendously to his right at every hurdle and it was clear he was still learning a lot about racing. He's had two subsequent starts of hurdles where he appears to have been well held and I thought after his first run that they'd try and get him a low handicap and attempt to exploit it on his handicap debut. In those two starts, his jumping was much better than his debut but still not great so I am hoping its a facet that Griffin has spent some time working on.

Today, Cool Kid makes his handicap debut off a mark of 95 as he is stepped up to 19f for the first time today. Its also very interesting to note that he wears first time blinkers and I really think they'll help a huge amount as he looks to have lacked focus to date. Raced over only 2m so far, I found it very interesting that the yard have upped him to 2m3f immediately and even more interesting that he's been entered into two 3m races so I get the impression that connections certainly feel he'll be better over further. Furthermore, Cool Kid was entered into a Grade 2 the day before he made his debut which he didn't get into which indicates to me that his new connections also think a fair bit about him (although what were they thinking as he was nowhere near ready!). Apprentice Mark Bolger takes the ride today and he has a decent enough record for Griffin with 1 win from 4 starts and this is his only ride of the day. Although Griffin is winnerless in this sphere since September, he does have a very encouraging record 21% record at Kilbeggan which somewhat negates this concern. Although certainly not one to go nuts on, Ger Lyons seemed to think a lot of this horse and if the blinkers and step up in trip suit he could land this at a very nice price on handicap debut

I would advise anyone backing him to do so on Betfair before the off as he's definitely going to be a much bigger price.
 
I have to have a small go on Oil Strike 40/1 in the 4.00 Musselburgh. I definitely think he is capable of winning off his current mark on what is his 3rd start for Mick Easterby. He's performed badly twice so far for his new trainer but he may well have needed those runs to get him up to full race fitness. Easterby has come into a bit of form recently and it represents his and jockey Paddy Aspell's only action today. More than likely he's going to be awful before Easterby lands a plot with him but I'll end up kicking myself if he goes in at a huge price.
 
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