Lucky William 6/1 16:55 Punchestown : Ultra consistent horse who won't mind conditions having won on heavy on Irish Grand National day, travels well throughout his races, likes going right-handed and can see them off in the conditions today and at the price can be backed e/w with 7 in the race, shame it's not 8 though, however, First Lieutenant won't get involved on this ground, I worry Menorah won't have encountered ground like this before but if taking to it will be the main danger, can see Kumbeshwar also struggling to adapt to conditions, Blackstairsmountain and Shot form the Hip may get involved at decent prices but i'm sticking with Lucky William to win this one. Goodluck to all today.
2.55 Sandown Tingo in the Tale 16/1 Really like the look of David Arbuthnot's 3 year old who looks very unexposed and who should be spot on after his recent reappearance run. In his 5 starts to date, TITT has proved himself to be a rather useful animal and I expect there is a lot more to come. On debut back in July of last year over 7f, this gelding ran a decent enough race in which the talented Group 3 winning Crius won as he finished about 7.5L beaten back in 6th. He looked like he lacked a bit of racecourse experience and looked certain to come from that effort. On his 2nd start, TITT broke his maiden when landing a Maiden at Brighton stepped up to a mile. Again, he looked to still be learning but he was forward enough to land this contest going away when scoring by 1.75L, with the front two pulling 5L clear of the remainder. Although the form of that race is only ok, he showed a likeable battling quality to draw clear from Sheila's Buddy when she drew back alongside. Moreover, that victory came on soft ground and given the heavy ground present today it demonstrates his ability to act on the surface. On his 3rd start and after being assigned a handicap mark of 75, Tingo in the Tale ran a very admirable second over 1m at Newmarket on good to soft ground as he finished 1.25L behind Devdas. In a large field, he got a decent enough passage through from the back and was never nearer at the finish, demonstrating a step up in trip would suit. The form of that race is very solid, with Devdas performing well off a 6lb higher mark in better races. Moreover, the 4th Glee ran a cracker in the Tattersill Millions filly's 2YO race subsequently and the 5th Salford Art ran a very good race to beaten only 5L in a Group 1 subsequently. 2 starts back in October and upped to a mark of 78, TITT was upped to 9f on good ground at Newmarket and it was a strange performance. After travelling into the race very strongly, his stride shortened significantly and it looked as if he either didn't handle the good ground or something went wrong. Mizbah, who finished just behind Tingo in the Tale on his handicap debut, finished 3rd in this race so it clearly wasn't a true showing of his potential. This was his last start as a 2 year old and given he wasn't seen for 6 months either of my 2 analysis are very possible. LTO, TITT made his AW debut at Kempton where he was a massive eye catcher in my eyes over 1m. In his traditional stlye of sitting off the pace, regular jockey James Doyle brought him down around the outside and under only hands and heels riding he stayed on past beaten horses to finish a 4L beaten 5th. Considering Doyle didn't go for the whip once, it looked clear to me that this was just to get a run under his belt after a long absence and he certainly appeared to have a lot of horse left under him. Furthermore, the a step up in trip again looked like it would definitely benefit him. Today represents Tingo in the Tale's toughest challenge as he is upped to a Class 3 event for the first time. He is stepped up to 1m2f for the first time and this looks certain to suit this now 3 year old gelding significantly. Off his mark of 78, he is only 3lb higher than his good 2nd to Devdas and I certainly don't think this handicap mark is going to be the ceiling of his abilities. With his only run of soft ground a win, I think he will relish the return to testing conditions as well as the step up in trip. With 5 of his 7 rivals today coming back from at least a 3 month break, Tingo in the Tale has fitness on his side which is normally a very important factor in these events. He represents trainer David Arbuthnot's only runner of the day and I am a slight bit worried about his form at the moment. He's without a winner on the flat since last August and since February over jumps but his last runner was only beaten by 0.25L in a Bumper so his horses could be coming in to form now. With a good draw in stall 3, I am very confident of a big showing form Tingo in the Tale and hopefully there are non runners as only 8 go to post now.
1.50 Sandown GRANDEUR Ground conditions have, and you might think this is ridiculous, gone in this ones favour, despite having never raced on it before. By the late Verglas, who was placed in a multitude of Irish blacktype rces and was one of the leading sires in France in his stud career, soft ground will pose no problem. Then his form is excellent from his maidens- touched off in a hot Goodwood maiden (Mickdaam in midfield) and a host of good yardsticks, I think he is well handicapped enough in this field to land the spoils for Jeremy Noseda and at a good value price as well at 9/2. He beat the 87-rated Bronze Angel going away at Brighton and I hope there is more to come from him this season. Please, just take 30 seconds of your time to have a look at Verglas: http://sidfernando.wordpress.com/20...ons-verglas-at-irish-national-stud-is-e10000/ An absolute beautiful racehorse.
2.55 Sandown: STRIDENT FORCE 8/1 (NAP) Napping anything from the Sir Michael Stoute yard at the moment concerns me BUT in my defence here I think this one is potentially very well treated in this handicap. He acquitted himself really well as a 2 year old last season, twice on soft ground, and the fact he didnt begin his campaign in July and was restricted to maiden company tells you that he was expected to make a better 3 year old and that he was being educated. He was only beaten a length and a quarter by Storming Bernard, which is form up to arounf the 90 mark if you take it as accurate, and he was a good 3rd on his final start in a race that is shaping as if some really nice form, with two Godolphin horses in midfield now heading into the mid 80s going handicapping, one horse touched off by the well regarded Thomas Chippendale, and Stature- a well regarded Andrew Balding inmate. Handicapping of 78 today with some experience on good to soft, I think this is a really interesting bet if he has improved into the three year old we might hope he could be.
Toppy 3 of his last 4 runners have won - and two were in the same race so last 3 races he has contested he has won - might be starting to hit form
I know RV, but its ME napping a Stoute horse- me and him dont go well with selections normally Usually because theres little value in his horses!
Afternoon guys from a wet and windy punchewtown. Looking forward to seeing the fly for the first time,i hear he's a midget! I backed lady of Glencoe to win the last at 8/1.The horse has the highest RP even over the fav and nina is on board.Also backed the fly/felix younger to win and terminal to place at 6/1
Bottomless going for all turf meetings in both GB and Ireland today, prepared to oppose Diamond's Return in the 7.55 at Plumpton, different going to when it won at Wincanton on Sunday.
Well done to Neil King... though Trevor Whelan nearly came off at the last... rank outsider @ 33/1 wins it... Hopefully all horses n riders are well after what claimed all but 2 in the end...
LUPO D'ORO 13/2 has the benefit of a run and an 8lb pull at the weights for a 1 length defeat to PEARL SECRET here at Donny. Small bet for the value I think here, though Pearl Secret might end up being in the hot sprint handicaps this year and graded company.
