Morning, all. Am somewhat saddened that the fixture at God’s own racecourse, Newton Abbot, has gone today. Still am hiding my disappoint stoically. Nothing for me but am greatly looking forward to my old fave Snap Tie’s return to the track after a 2 and a half year absence later on across the water (4.55 Punchestown). On his best form he’s absolutely thrown in off 137 but to counter balance this fact the ground must be a big worry, age is against him, he’s only ever won one race outside novice company and there look to be more plots than in an Agatha Christie novel going on in the heat. I also note that in the last 2 runnings of the old ‘County Hurdle’ he’s been withdrawn a few hours before the actual race. Still all the best old boy, say I. Meanwhile, I can now confirm that the filly with the lovely name, that I alluded to yesterday, has indeed been put in at Punchestown on Friday. Let’s hope that GOLDEN ELECTRA brings ‘the bounty, back to the county’. Instructions have been given to open the vault as a result of this entry.
Storm Moon at 5/6 is for me a good bet. Impressive on debut when making all at Muss, sire has Southwell winners and I think he should be 4/7. Not a big bet because it is Southwell with horses who have yet to race at the track.
Anyone tempted to take the 2/1 about the ‘shorties’ in the 3 Grade 1 events at Punchestown??? If someone held a gun to my head I’d say that they would all oblige but not really enthused by those odds.
The bookies must be laughing now Most Improved is out of the Guineas. A fair bit of money left behind I would think.
I wouldn't be lumping on the shorties today either Sir Barney. Small fields, end of season, heavy ground are all the ingredients (and more) that you need for an upset.
Sticking with the selective betting after Opinion yesterday. Just the one today. Btw I see some bookies have Messi at 11/10 to score twice tonight shocking bet 4.55 Punchestown E.W Citizenship 8/1 (BOG) A very tough looking handicap to solve but there is some good value knocking around and for me Citizenship is worth a small E.W punt at around the 8/1 mark. Jessica Harrington’s 6yo Gelding has improved significantly over hurdles since November progressing from a mark of 97 to at his highest 133. He was sent off favourite for the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival from that career high mark and although finishing only 14th of 26 and beaten 15 lengths he showed plenty of promise in a race that just didn’t work out for him. He has been dropped to 128 for todays race and should relish the return to a softer surface. I am willing to forgive the Cheltenham effort and prior to that he had looked a horse with a highly progressive profile.
I bet Fallon laid his knackers on Most Improved. As soon as they had booked him it struck me as bookies benefit. Who on earth backed him? He won one maiden, and looked one paced in his third start. I know they improve as 3 year olds, but **** the bed he would have to improve to win the Guineas! Born To Sea is the one to back on 3 Y O breeding but in all honesty the Guineas is wide open. Camelot looks very good but he is 10f plus no question in my mind.
All I can say is "Remember Saint Nicholas Abbey" Won't touch the Guineas this year ...................
I defs understand your point Odddy but it still makes me chuckle when people go on like SNA is a bad horse. I know that isn't your point but some people think that. I still stick with ABTAAL
Some people can't see the wood for the trees RV. SNA is class. If he was Stoute or Sir Henry's he'd be well loved by now
Not saying he's a bad horse but he was way, way too short for the Guineas and many people (including me) got sucked into backing him on his Racing Post Trophy win (which actually pointed more towards stamina than speed).
No he wouldn't, he isn't as well "loved" because he races away from these shores more than the other top G1 performers from AOB
SNA has come back remarkably well. I want to see him upped further in trip- he is a potential Ascot Gold Cup horse IMO. He stays so strongly id love to see him tried. Remember that the step up to 12f was the making of him and I think Camelot will be the same, though I think 10f would be ideal. Camelot looks the perfect Eclipse horse.
I think Quevega, for all her brilliance, is far too short. The likes of Voler La Vedette and Zaidpour looks decent prices to beat her.
Quevega has to improve to beat VLV IMHO. VLV has far superior form this year. However, when VLV has run against Zaidpour it was soft and he won with a bit of ease. 8/1 is big. I've had a bit of it in case people catch on. He'll love every drop of water and gets his trip.
