Merigo for me too, looks absolutely primed for this and Stick has said everything else about him. Fury in the 3.45 is my other bet for the day, soft ground should be key.
Bet365 have just eased MERIGO to 7-1 which is as good as you can get. They are probably just balancing their books. This is the place to back him though as they are paying first five for EW punters and when he wins you get the free bet on the 3.45 at Newbury where NASS fancies Fury and I fancy Captain Bertie. They are also BOG as always...not that I can see it drifting any further!
Best Terms for me is an absolute lay. She is very much like Memory, the Hannon horse of last year and year before. Very slick mover, small frame, good turn of foot. This becomes more of a challenge to win with as a 3 year old when everyone else has filled their frames, and Hannon has already said "Best Terms hasn't grown over the winter" which I would find very worrying if I was on at 7/4. The othe thing is soft ground- I have a feeling her turn of foot might be blunted at Newbury and I don't see her being in a 1000 Guineas shakeup. I thought Moonstone Magic 2.35 looked a real interesting prospect having hammered a field atr Leicester last week and Jim Crowley chooses her over the stablemate. 1.30 Newbury: We knew Noble Mission would start as a short price and whilst he shaped really nicely at Yarmouth last year, he was well beaten by Swedish Sailor and we shouldnt be going overboard. Cecil was saying even last year that he would need further than a mile and therefore I would oppose him here. I think the right sort of mile pedigree applies to Godolphins Ibtahaj, who at 4/1 rates slightly better value with a mix of Invincible Spirits speed and the mile and a half Group 3 winning dam Marroussies Wings. He was an unfancied 20/1 at Newcastle in a maiden, but finished ahead of both stable mates and clearly the betting today suggests he would have benefited from the experience and a good winter to develop into a 3 year old. Modern Tutor would be my idea of place value. 2.00 Newbury: ALLIED POWERS 9/1 (NAP)- Thought this was a real promising value shout in a small field. Not at his best last year but two things are interesting today: a) The trip. b) The ground. Has won 5 from 16 at a mile and a half, and the form on ground with cut (Gd to soft-Hvy) reads: 313210321305. Did beat Allied Powers home last season when they chased St Nicholas Abbey around Chester. 3.10 Newbury: Spritual Star 9/1 was beatern just over 4 lengths by Parish Hall which now reads as very good form. Bronterre is obviously very promising but I'm not sure the price different here reflects their actual abilities. Bronterre has now been forced into being a Hannon hotpot in the Guineas trials simply because their better horse got injured. 3.45 PINTURA 20/1 e.w If Spencer does what I hope he does and races this horse up with the speed, I think it will run a really big race. A nice 4lb drop from the handicapper, and ran some belting races in these dorts of handicaps last year. MUST be bounced out and given a chance though because there are too many strong travellers to make the headway needed from the back of the field so I'd like to see him doing it from the front. Should be stripping really fit after two runs already. 4.20 Newbury: MICHAELANGELO 10/1 (NB) Really like the breeding of this John Gosden newcomer, looks exactly the type on strong 3 year old you need at this stage of the season in a 3 Y 0 maiden, has Derby and Tatterstall Millions entries, and is clearly thought of well at home. This is a good maiden- won by World Domination last year and containing the likes of Fiorente. Gosden's horses can win first time up and you know usually that they will know their job for the first racecourse start. He has the entries that suggest he is going well, which the likes of Uriah Heep do not, and I am hopeful of a really nice run from this horse today. As I said earlier in the week, it is a maiden and it is very easy to get it wrong- its guesswork.
i was sweet on Fruity O'rooney for the scottish national but i've decided he won't stay. leaves me out on a limb, might play for an e/w outsider. be there in five will relish the trip me thinks
Morning all... Not looked in great deal at all the cards but my interest is at Ayr... It seems the forum is backing Merigo and i also think its a good thing to... One of the other ones i like is Red Merlin in the 2.50... I picked this horse in my 10 to follow and he duly came in with his first run of the year at Newcastle last month, a 2m hurdle on good ground. Sent off the 5/2f he got up, as McCain horses do, to win by a nose against Arctic Court. Only run once this year and will be fresh enough to follow up here... As will Arctic Court who also runs today in the 4.00... Is more of a 2m5f upwards runner in my mind, has won twice at 3m, and the 2m defeat against Red Merlin to me carry's well with him. A return to 2m5f for this today will see Arctic Court back to a distance that will see a better run out of him... He is also 2 wins from 5 runs at Ayr... So... 2.50 - Red Merlin, 6/1 3.25 - Merigo, 7/1 4.00 - Arctic Court, 11/2 Good luck with your bets today... Lets hope for a good one...
15:25 Ayr - Any Currency e/w. (Probably better right-handed but you can't have everything. Good going a plus and will be staying-on when a few others will have had enough. Jockey can do low weight with ease).
Well if the price wasnt gone it will be now........ It can pay to keep things simple in the Scottish National at Ayr today (3.25)and MERIGO must have leading claims again in a race that suits him so well. He's a real course specialist with form figures at Ayr of 3112121, the only time he hasn't finished first or second coming on his first start at the track which was over an inadequate 2m trip, and having won this race by a wide margin off a mark of 127 in 2010 and then beaten only narrowly into second off 142 last year, his chance off a mark of 134 this year is clear to see, especially after he returned to form with a win over 3m at this track last time, having been out of form going into this race in each of the last two years. As well as being a course specialist, he's also a better horse at 4m than 3m, but his mark doesn't tend to reflect that as he has only run at his best trip three times (won the Eider Chase on his only other start at this sort of distance). There's a possibility that this is a better race than last year's renewal, with only seven of the field in the handicap proper last year, but the other two horses involved in the finish were both highly progressive and the front three pulled thirty lengths clear of the remainder on good ground, so off an 8lb lower mark Merigo has to be of interest, especially with some firms paying 5 places each way. Hugh Taylor you sponging twat..........I'm sure he reads 606 and saves himself the bother some days! FFS he has practically copied and pasted my post...LMAO
Morning All Not had much chance to look at the Racing today, being driven mad by my 2 year old twins (they are in one of those moods this morning !!) I have 2 fancies for the Scottish Grand National: Abbeybraney 33/1 (Paddy Power) - believe from memory he split According To Peter & Ballabriggs in their Aintree Warm-up race and the last 2 runs have still shown some encouragement, so think this one has a decent each way shout. Mac Aeda 25/1 (Most Firms) - 2lb out of the handicap but has shown decent form in 3 mile races and I feel he will stay the 4 miles, whether he is in contention is another matter but at the price I'll take a chance, also maybe some compensation for Richie Mclermon for missing out on sunnyhillboy in the Grand National. Best of luck !! Cheers Trevez
2.40 Thirsk ELEGANT GIRL 12/1, made a belated debut this month after an injury last year, ran green but looked a decent type and will be better for that race, well thought of in the Tim Easterby yard and will be there or there abouts today at a decent price. Finally one who i follow blind at this time of the year is Ruth Carr who is renound for big priced well handicapped winners and hasnt let me down this year with a 33/1 winner. Today her runners are all very well handicapped and are more than capable of winning off their respective marks. 3.15 Thirsk IMPERIAL DJAY 12/1 and DUBAI DYNAMO 10/1 5.00 Thirsk AMAZING BLUE SKY 33/1 5.35 Thirsk SPANISH ACCLAIM 25/1 Finally lets hope the SGN produces a cracking race with no repeat of last weeks GN and all horses return safe and sound my three against the field EW are KING FONTAINE 50/1, MOSTLY BOB 22/1 and ABBYBRANEY 33/1. If i had to narrow it down my fancies would be in the following order: KING FONTAINE ABBYBRANEY MOSTLY BOB Good luck to one and all today be lucky
Stick: You should take this matter up with the BHA Stewards Room ASAP. Sponging twats should be warned off. (Ashamed to say I feel all gloom and doom about the Rs, looks bluddy tough to avoid the catastrophic drop, after all that hard work last season. Really hope I'm wrong and we make it).
Jongleur- well thrown up Agree with everything you say. I'll have a little each way on him and Heddwyn in the Newbury Spring Cup. The latter's lightly raced and, if he can reproduce anywhere near his form when 2nd , trying to give 12lbs to Group performer, Green Destiny, then he'd win this.
The power of Stickwise and the Not606 forum... At least if Merigo dos clean up and wins you can say that you saw it here first stick...!!!
Intersting selection there Trevez, i see we both like the look of the former HJ horse ABBEYBRANEY who has some decent form, should get the distance, ground to suit and runs off a very low mark. If hes there turning for home I think he will be capable of getting into the places at a very nice price and is well worth an EW punt at that price, heres hoping
Well what a day I have lined up Arse v Chels (don't know what the best result for the toon is really - perhaps a draw?) Toon v Stoke (on my laptop - dodgy stream) whilst Channel 4 racing is on the TV QPR v Tottenham (obviously hope the Spuds drop points here) El Classico to finish things off
The ground's come right for Fury, the jockey booking can't be faulted, god knows about the draw. William Haggas says he'll have to be a very good horse to win off top weight. Here's hoping that's what he is then. Mull of Killough has to be of interest as well after the way he flew home at Donny, and he has form on soft. I'll be opposing Best Terms with Mick Channon's Fillionaire. Obviously a late developer last season, as it's not like this stable to wait until October to start a 2yold off. Mick Channon is known as a trainer of juveniles, but also excels with early season 3yold fillies, although the guineas win still alludes.
