Sorry Zen. Forget the analyses and get on with your dissertation and revision. Pity the dissertation isn't about the Grand National.
can i just say thanks for the comments on here, it's been very useful to read because there's not many jump racing people i know (and even they prefer flat racing). it's shown that there are different ideas about the national even within jump racing fans and there are also some general consensuses. but there's been knowledgeable comments and opinions, so thanks all. and also thanks for the analysis zenyatta. interesting conclusions that would also make sense to a layman. a dissertation handin soon though, wow. g'luck! reminds me of finding the actual info i wanted 3 days before mine was due in.
I just have to say what great points and much thought that has been put across by the people of the forum, we have all showed a great deal of compassion and empathy on this subject. Just as a follow up point and something that has cropped up in my mind whilst reading the posted comments... Whats your feeling towards this weekends Scottish National...? I have reservations of this race now that i didn't have before simply because of the media reaction to the GN and the fatalities that happened. Its not that its a race had has had many deaths in the past but 'if' we were to lose another horse to the sport with the tag 'National' it will only fuel the weight to the argument of banning the sport in my opinion... It has never bothered me before but after all the points about the GN i do have a slight concern with any horse race that is involving the bigger obstacles now. I know that these fences are not the same that we have at Aintree but is it the fact that the word 'National' appears in the title that has got me a bit edgy about this race...? What damage if any has it done to your thoughts and concerns about the weekends race...? Is it just the fact that the GN has left you a bit raw towards the NH scene...? Or am i just getting overly worried about a race that just simply has the word 'National' in its title...? I would be interested to hear your thoughts...
I think the races such as the Scottish national and the midlands and even Welsh (my worst race of the year, usually due to it being like equine mud wrestling) are the ones that can help us get an idea with regard factual evidence regarding the fences and quantity of runners. These courses fences are not nearly as challenging for a horse and usually there is a significant reduction in runners. It cannot be based on one years statistices but again if we could use these stats over a 10 or 20 year period we would know if we have valid points about the Aintree National saftey or if we are just over re-acting due to it's high profile.
Just to supply some stats for the Scottish National i believe of the 24 runners 10 finished and amazingly none fell and so of course no fatalities. I think the fallers stat goes to prove that you cannot possibly take one running to prove anything and you need go back over 10-20 runnings of various races for comparrison purposes as no fallers in the Scottish National must be a rare stat. On the other side of things the finish was every bit as thrilling as last weeks Aintree national. I felt it did look a bit flat as a spectacle however and wondered why, i came to the conclusion that it would have been possible to make it very near the Aintree in terms of spectacle if the same coverage was employed. By this i mean the various shots of the runners from above provided by the balloon and the coverage running by the side of the horses and cameras by the fences themselves as are used for Aintree. The commentators as well crank up the volume in the Aintree national as well which is very noticible and all of this helps transform it as a spectacle. It was i feel a good example of what could be kept and what could be let go and the results you could expect to acheive from that.
Blue - I think the style of fences add to the uniqueness that is Aintree, even the Topham or similar races provide a different spectacle to usual chases. Interesting point you make that there were 24 runners and the pace was a reasonable 4m pace throughout, with 40 runners in the National there is a false quick pace and I do agree with a number of 'experts' who have said that the fence/course modifications have allowed horses to go even quicker therefore increasing the risk of serious injury through falling, the answer to me is simply reducing the number of entries to 28/30/32, no ####ing about with reduction to 36 or 38 as that will have no bearing in my view, take approx 10 runners out of the race and there'll be less of a frenzy to gain decent position in the early stages...
Anyone know the no. of deaths in the Topham and the Foxhunters (which have around 30 runners I think) compared with that of the National. My gut instinct is that a reduction to the national would really need to see the field reduced to nearer 25.
