I feel nicholls and henderson could clean up tomorrow- Nicholls- Big Bucks, Dodging Bullets/Hinterland (the latter could suprise quite a few,) Gwanko, Al Ferof Henderson- Riverside Theatre, Tanks For That, Spirit River- Again who could suprise a few- was going well with the leaders then fell 3 out and intresting that Geraghty has chosen to ride him over Veiled/
Can't be having Hinterland at any price- think people have still bought into the early season hype. Aintree Placepot: Big Bucks Dodging Bullets/Sadlers Risk Burton Port Roulez Cool/Cloudy Lane Kumbleshwar Al Ferof
Final race at Aintree: RICK 25/1 e.w Travelled well at Cheltenham before weakening to 6th of 25. The flatter track today might really help him see the trip out better.
14.35- Grumeti- 3/1 I know he is favourite but so he should be! He has shown a mixture of class, guts and good jumpingto win at Cheltenham and Kempton earlier this year, earning him the Triumph Hurdle favourite. He looked set to pick up gold approaching the final flight, but he was just outstayed up the hill, beaten a little less than four lengths into third. This track is alot flatter and should suit him much better and he looks certain to be involved in the finish.
I think everyone is underestimating Countrywide Flame in favour of more hyped and flashy horses. I expect him to be bang up there again and if beaten I think Pearl Swan is the one who was really staying on at Cheltenham. That said I'm not sure he'll (Pearl Swan) improve for this flatter track and I'm not sure he can be run any closer to the pace and he wasn't getting quite there at Cheltenham before falling. Therefore I expect Countrywide Flame to do the business. Elsewhere I would love it if Hunt Ball could stick his neck in front. I think he has a very live chance, he won a competitve festival handicap off of 142 eased down by 8l. He must be capable of running to 160 but I fear that might not be enough. 11/2 is hardly inspiring but I might still have a couple of rupees on. There's certainly some e/w value in finding what will place behind Big Bucks. My two against the field would be Restless Harry and 100/1 outsider Won in the Dark who ran 3rd in this race last year. In the last I don't think Son of Flicka's mark is beyond him either and 11/1 represents e/w value.
2.35 FOLKESTONE LIGHT BURST 7/1 This will be the first Hard Spun offspring of many I'll be putting up this season. Followed him stringently last year and he didn't disappoint, producing a 19.4% win and a 43.3% place rate from 31 runners last year and a ROI of 71%. Light Burst is a 3 year old from the Al Zarooni stable and I think the first and a very important thing to note is his rating of 63. Godolphin aren't going to be keeping a 63 rated horse unless they feel he is a lot better than his current mark so thats an obvious positive. In his 3 starts to date, Light Burst has pulled very hard and raced with an abundance of inexperience but he definitely showed some talent. On debut over 5f, he ran absolutely all over the shop but only was beaten 3L and last of 4 in the field. That said, the form of that race has worked out very nicely with the winner Sixx now rated 92, the 2nd Right Result now rated 89 and the 3rd Verse of Love rated 71. He couldn't even run in a straight line that day and it was a good performance to get as close as he did. On his 2nd and 3rd starts it was a very similar story as he pulled very hard in the early stages of the race stepped up to 7f and he probably didn't last home in either effort. He did show a fair bit of potential both times and a mark of 63 certainly doesn't look beyond him. There's a strong chance Light Burst has grown in both stature and attitude between 2-3 and I am hoping his tendency to pull has been eradicated. Although he has to overcome a 6 month gap, connections excel at having their horses ready for seasonal reappearances so I am not concerned at all. Sylvestre De Sousa takes the ride as Light Burst gets in here with bottom weight. With the drop to 6f looking sure to suit, it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if he comes a very easy winner tomorrow. 5.25 AINTREE SON OF FLICKA 11/1 Can’t desert him after he pretty much saved my Cheltenham at 40/1 and not much to say about this lad. Landed an absolute monster gamble at Cheltenham to win the Coral Cup impressively after this 8 year old had put behind him the ‘terrible’ form of the previous 12 months. McCain’s charge, off a mark of 135, returned to more prominent tactics and it is clear he was very, very well handicapped. At the 2011 Cheltenham Festival, Son of Flicka ran the excellent Sir Des Champs, winner of all his 4 starts over fences and now the Gold Cup favourite, to within half a length off a mark of 140 so its clear on the basis of his latest victory a lot of scope still remains for this gelding. I’m absolutely shocked to see that Son of Flicka has only been raised 7lb for his win at Cheltenham and I think it was a vast understatement of his performance by the handicapper. Furthermore, the form of that race received a massive boost yesterday with the 2nd Get Me Out Of Here landing a Grade 2 at Fairyhouse yesterday. I have absolutely no concerns about Son of Flicka’s ability to defy his mark but connections clearly fiddled with him in the past so it may happen again. However, he’s clearly a very talented horse and at 7 I think connections may want to see how far he can progress. At only 2lb below his 0.5L defeat behind Sir Des Champs and 7lb above his rout of the Coral Cup, Son of Flicka has run two good seconds at the track although there are doubts about him staying the 3m trip, he looked as if the extra distance would help at Cheltenham and his previous efforts over this trip were in the period where connections wanted to get him well handicapped so I am willing to ignore them. Can’t quite believe 11/1 is available and although I won’t be going all guns blazing due to doubts about if he is really trying I think if he is he could be very hard to beat. ‎5.40 GOWRAN PARK ORAFINITIS FC 16/1 NAP Been waiting for her to make her seasonal reappearance and your going to have to trust me on this one! Toppy may remember me banging on about her on chat on Fugees last year! I've followed her since her debut two years ago and I know that she is good enough to win this. Orafinitis made an extremely promising debut back in July 2010 when finishing only 5.25L beaten by the excellent Misty For Me. After this and for the rest of her 2 year old campaign she was desperately disappointing, which has unfortunately been a trend for a filly I think is much better than what she has shown. After an 8 month break, Orafinitis made her seasonal debut as a 3 year old at Gowran Park last May of 7f off a mark of 56 and finally fulfilled some of the promise I know she possesses when shedding her maiden tag to win by 1L under the guidance of the trainer's son. After getting squeezed up early on, she had to come wide around the field and I think she had more up her sleeve than her winning distance said. After this, trainer Desmond McDonogh said "She ran well on her debut last year but lost the plot afterwards and that surprised me. She's been going well at home and is a well-bred filly. It's lovely ground out there and it seemed to make all the difference" I really expected her to kick on from that but again she disappointed. She ran one noteworthy race since then when a decent 4.25L beaten 5th after a 3 month break, the only time that Declan McDonogh has been on since, but that was on heavy ground which I don't think really suited. As a result of running pretty poorly on the AW, Orafinitis' handicap mark has plumetted to a mark of 52 and she is now 4lb below winning at the track 11 months ago. She seems to reserve her best form for when fresh as her 3 best runs came either on debut or on the back of breaks, with the last on ground too heavy. Tomorrow, Declan gets back on board and its a massive positive as she returns to the scene of her victory 11 months ago. She's stepped up to 1m which looked like it would suit on her victory last month and the good ground looks ideal as long as the rain stays away. The trainer's last victory came last year with a double on the day Orafintis' won but that isn't a concern to me as he was winless for a similar period prior to that. He has another runner Articilitis who I'll be backing in a double with Orafintis in the 6.40 (although I fancy 3 others more in the race) in the hope he can achieve a similar feat again. Although it may not seem an overly convincing argument, you're going to have to take my trust on her. I know this horse and a very similar pattern to last year has emerged. With the draw in stall 6 no issue, I'm going on large as long as the rain stays away. ‎6.40 GOWRAN PARK REGAL TRAMP 8/1 If it wasn't for Fran Berry deserting Regal Tramp I'd be very, very confident and although Sam James is more than an able deputy and takes off an extremely valuable 5lb I'm going to have to take two from the race now. 2 starts back, Vincent Ward's 4 year old landed a pretty poor contest on the AW at Dundalk in impressive fashion to win by 1.5L over 12f. After breaking from a wide stall extremely well, Regal Tramp raced a bit closer to the pace than I envisaged but was given a lovely ride by Fran Berry to win. She travelled into the race beautifully and I don't think she was ever fully extended to win. It was just the sort of performance I was hoping to see and I'm convinced theres more to come. She's been raised only 5lb to a mark of 70 and I think the handicapper has been pretty lenient. Prior to this, Regal Tramp put in a number of good performances off higher handicap marks, including a 0.5L defeat at the Galway Festival off a mark of 73 over trip as well as consecutive 2nds (although both 5L defeats) off marks of 75. It certainly demonstrates her ability to act on the turf and I have no doubt that she's better on this surface. On her last start, Regal Tramp went off favourite at Leopardstown only 5 days after her sole success to date when stepped up to 1m6f and sent off favourite. Again from a wide stall, she didn't break as well and as a result Fran Berry had her wide very wide the entire way around. Resultantly, she probably had to travel an extra couple of furlong and despite travelling into the race very well she didn't find much when asked which leads me to believe that she didn't stay the trip. Tomorrow Regal Tramp drops back down to 1m4f again and that should be no concern to her at all. She has also been generously dropped 2lb for that effort and is now only 3lb above her win two starts back. She certainly won with a bit in hand in my eyes and I am convinced she is up to winning off this mark. I'm a big fan of Sam James and with his 5lb claim this 4 year old is now actually 2lb lower than when winning at Dundalk. Although the draw in stall 12 is a pain in the ass, she broke very well when winning and its not a huge concern as she can also come from off the pace. I see absolutely no reason why she can't go very close to winning this in what is a slightly lower grade than her latest effort. With Berry now on APACHE DRUMS 6/1 for Charles O'Brien's 5 year old with first time cheekpieces I'm having a saver as he looks potentially very well handicapped.
Singles and E/W Multiples on the following for today AINTREE 17:25 HANDICAP HURDLE 3m 110y Oscar Prairie @ 20/1 (GP) AINTREE 16:15 HANDICAP CHASE 2m Kumbeshwar @ 6/1 (GP) AINTREE 14:00 LIVERPOOL HURDLE 3m 110y Tidal Bay @ 20/1 (GP) AINTREE 15:05 BETFRED BOWL CHASE 3m 1f Master Of The Hall @ 14/1 (GP) AINTREE 15:40 HUNTERS CHASE 2m 5f 110y Offshore Account @ 12/1 (GP)
just finished a poker tourney checked sharkscope and the guy who knocked me out had profits of over 52k...wowzaaa! anyways i am going to play some of my winnings on Grumeti 7/2 Hunt Ball 5/1 My way de solzen 13/2 kid cassidy 6/1 £5 singles, £2 doubles, £1 Trebles and a £1 quad goodluck ALL!!!, night night
2.00 Aintree. Best bet of the day is the 1/2 (1.5) being offered by Betfair for 'place only' on Smad Place . Look on this as a seven horse race (without Big Bucks) and Smad Place would be odds on to win and far shorter than 1/2 a place. 3.05 Aintree. This is a race to leave alone. Burton Port, Riverside Theatre, and Medermit come here on the back of hard races at Cheltenham. What A Friend is the fly in the ointment. He comes here fresh after an early fall in the Gold Cup and won this race two years ago. Worth mentioning that neither Riverside Theatre nor Medermit has won over three miles. Also, Master Of The Hall is very interesting- he hacked up here in December and comes here fresh also. 4.15 Aintree. Silk Drum beat Oiseau De Nuit decisively in this race last year and is now a pound better off. He was a decent second last time, trying to give 8lbs to Ultimate, and must have a good each way chance of staging a repeat win. Best price...12/1 (Sporting Bet) 4.50 Aintree. Al Ferof does not have a big future over fences. He showed at Cheltenham that he lacks the scope and size to compete at the top level. It wouldn't surprise me if either he or Menorah(or both) ended up on the deck over these tricky fences. I'm taking Pepite Rose to make the most of her 7lbs concession- and do them both. 5.25 Aintree. Gullinbursti's defeat of of Grand Vision (giving him a stone) makes great reading, especially bearing in mind Grand Vision's great race when only 2 lengths behind Boston Bob at levels at Cheltenham. However, Rocky Creek didn't enhance Gullinbursti's form with his display at Cheltenham- and so the Albert Bartlett form may be overrated. David Pipe's horses have been in good late-season form and Star Of Angels hacked up at Wincanton before being brought down at Cheltenham. His price of 16/1 (various )makes early morning appeal- any move for him would be significant. He's worth an each way bet.
5.10 Gowran Park Legendary Times 5/1 Put Patrick Flynn's 6 year old the last day on the back of 6 month absence where he missed the break by about 10L before she ran on to finish just over 2L beaten in 3rd. I definitely think she would have won with a bit in hand had she broken on terms.. Although 12lb above her last winning mark(broke slowly that day and still won eased down at the course), she is only 1lb above her mark when finishing 2nd at Wexford back in August, where the winner won by 2L off a 9lb higher mark on their next start. Todays race represents a step back in trip which probably is the best but I still think she is well enough handicapped to certainly go very close off the same mark as her effort the last day.
Tam, do they try to beat Big Bucks with Smad Place, if so, will he be burn't off like Dynaste was early in the season and others run past him when he is beaten? I think that 1/2 is a horrid price. I think Nicholls will have a good festival, Dodging Bullets is the nap today.
I am stunned at so many people tipping Pepite Rose I really am. I will be shocked if she is good enough to get within 20 lengths of Al Ferof today and I expect Menorah & Cristal Bonus to beat her home as well. Looking at her form in detail since chasing. Yes she has been impressive beat Fishoutofwater 12 lengths (115 rated horse who was conceding 5lbs to the winner) beat Backbobback 15 lengths (110 rated horse) beat Chilli Rose 5 lengths very easily (117 rated horse) beat Hows Business 9 lengths (134 rated horse) Improving yes but please 3/1 come off it. I know what Al Ferof would have done to any of them. Where was Pepite Rose when AF was winning the SN hurdle ?. She was getting beat 15 lengths off a mark of 118 at Exeter a couple of days before the festival Good luck lads you will need it
Morning, one and all. Today, I’ll nominate: Medermit (3.05 Aintree) – my regular readers will all know how long I have been waiting for this horse to be stepped up to 24 furlongs and thankfully this afternoon he will be. Medermit has had a decent campaign over lesser distances, this term, winning the Haldon Gold Cup and being placed in several ‘top table’ races. I really think though that this 167 rated performer will be even better over this distance and take the course winner to ‘bring the bounty, back to the county’. The rest of the meeting, from a personal punting perspective, doesn’t really appeal although I do think that both of Mr Nicholls’ ‘shorties’ (Big Bucks and Al Ferof) should oblige. The rest of the fixture though gives the impression that anything could happen and so I would tread very carefully in these heats, people.
Hope she doesnt post any personal pictures on twitter!!!Will BBC they have that muppet John Parrot and his pasta eating side kick on tomorrow,painful listening.Sorry i'm feeling abit evil this morning!!!
