2.00: No bet, but hopefully we will celebrate the meeting by opening with an unprecedented 17th straight win for Big Bucks. We will not see one like him for a very, very long time. Incredible when we got 5/6 for him at Cheltenham and the whole forum went nuts. Make history Biggy! 2.30: DODGING BULLETS 9/2 (NAP) Bit of a funny race to judge based on how the Triumph unfolded. Dodging Bullets was green as grass but ran full of promise when chasing home Grumeti at Kempton, and then improved a tonne when 4th in the Triumph at Cheltenham. I think Aintree will suit this horse and he can only keep improving over hurdles and I think this is the one to be on with Pearl Swan having taken a fall last time. 3.05: RIVERSIDE THEATRE 3/1 The bounce factor was no issue and he proved the doubters wrong by winning at Cheltenham. I actually think he is a very classy operator. He had a nightmare of a time in the Ryanair as Captain Chris jumped into him a good 4 or 5 times, yet he still powered up the hill to win it late on. Aintree will be fine for him over this sort of trip and he will stay. If he jumps well he'll go very close because his engine is excellent. Stayed on as well as anyone in the 2010 King George but mistakes cost him that day. 4.15: OISEAU DE NUIT 12/1 Nice performer on his day- bought down last time so should have something left in the tank having not had a hard race. Looked to be shaping well and has shown glimpses of real ability. Stephen Clements takes a nice 7lb off which puts him on a nice weight for this.
Regarding Big Bucks, was just having a look if the 3/1 WH offered at the start of the season was value. His SP's were 1/8, 30/100, 1/4, 5/6. And is a gerneral 2/9 shot for the first race at Aintree. £100 with WH at the start would stand to get £400. If backing each time(origonal £100 + profit) we would now have to stake £335.16 at 2/9, which would return £409.64. So the origonal price of 3/1 is actually £9.64 worse off. Conclusion, this bet was priced up very accurately and not worth tying money up for that duration. Also makes the same bet about Frankel(7/4) very bad value.
Haha nice point Hawkeye - I was actually on that bet at 3/1, so probably won't be having a bet on BB tomorow, but a good analysis. Especially as I had considered the Frankel one also. I'm going to have another go with Pearl Swan - I'll back EW on the tote I think, 1/5 the odds at 9/2 doesn't look nice, but I think I should be able to get over that on the Tote. I also think that Cristal Bonus looks overpriced at 6/1, given that Nicholls said he had a large abscess after Cheltenham. I think Paul Nichols could have a very big day tomorrow - the Liverpool, Juvenile and Manifesto look very winnable for him, and the likes of What a Friend isn't to be sniffed at in the Bowl as well. Trainers Championship is definitely on for a scrap I think! (Watch Shakalakaboomboom win the national now)
Sort of want Hunt Ball to win this guy is a full on legend http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xbI3xXsroE
It's too long to post it all in one post and I can't be arsed to do more than one so you'll have to actually go to my Blog to see them! http://cuhrs.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/aintree-thursday.html Does look a superb day though. Really looking forward to it.
Do you follow Clare Balding on twitter RV? She's just posted this and I've just pissed myself laughing.
Danish, i did it too, to my maximum stake. So am in a good position now, but admit i haven't enjoyed this bet one bit. Every race was nerve racking, and i won't be having a similar bet in future even if it wins. As for tomorrow my bets will be. Grumeti 2.30 Medermit 3.05 Kumbeshwar 4.15 Pepite Rose 4.50 nap.
Read your blog Zen and amazingly TIMESAWASTING is my EW alternative to Gullinbursti too...great minds eh
Stick why on Earth do you need an each way alternative to a horse you've said 'wins tomorrow. Trust me'? The eagle eyed amongst us will have got the 11/2 offered about that one earlier this afternoon.
I'm inclined to agree that Gullinbursti wins to be honest but Timesawastin has any amount of improvement when it learns to jump/settle/not hang. That day might be tomorrow but it might not be. At 20s worth the chance because I was expecting 10s. Plenty of dross shorter than him too.
I think it's a big price but I've invested a fair bit elsewhere already so have left him alone on this occasion. I wouldn't put anybody off though . . . I might get tempted tomorrow if they start a bookies battle again.
Aintree 2.00 Obviously Big Bucks will win and most racing fans really want him to. I backed Smad Place EW at Cheltenham but cant have him at 6's tomorrow. If pressed for a bet it would have to be an EW on TIDAL BAY. I think he likes Aintree but thats a bit of a guess really as he doesnt know what he likes himself. At 20-1 he is for me the second best horse in the race and merits an EW punt. 2.30 I think GRUMETI will win provided he jumps better and doesnt hit the front too soon. Most of us will have eggy faces if Countrywide Flame can win again! 3.05 My one big error at Cheltenham was deserting HUNT BALL. His weight carrying performance was possibly the feat of the meeting and he deserves his chance at this level. He has improved so much throughout the season and he improved again there. I am confident he is up to this level and will go close. 3.40 I have been touting GWANAKO for a few weeks now and he is outstanding in the Foxhunters. Much better than these and has course form to boot. So long as he avoids any of the number of lurking perils he should win. I like a sporting outsider in this too and the one that catches my eye is BLACKSTAFF at 50-1. Although not the most fantastic of jumpers his level of form is on a par with many at much much shorter odds and he is worth a little fun bet. 4.15 TANKS FOR THAT can lead them a merry dance even off topweight. Ran a belter at Cheltenham behind the ill fated Bellvano and can give the form of that race a huge thumbs up. 4.50 AL FEROF would have been much closer to Sprinter Sacre at Cheltenham but for a shocking blunder. His form with Somersby stands out in the context of this race and I cant oppose him. 5.25 GULLINBURSTI is still very much on the upgrade. I know the yard think he is banker material for this tomorrow and thats good enough for me. TIMESAWASTING is worth a saver 20's each way too.
