Three come straight to mind for me, Countrywide Flame, Riverside Theatre and Synchronised. Feel free to add to the list.
Synchronised and Finian's Rainbow (if running over 2m4f) have no chance. I think Riverside Theatre might win though. 3m and a flat track will suit him well in my opinion, provided he's over his Cheltenham exertions.
Alot of the time Cheltenham winners flop at Aintree, because they haven't fully recovered from Cheltenham, but this year there is a 4 week+ gap, so i think a few could win. The ones I will be looking to oppose though will be Rock On Ruby, because of his poor display at Aintree last year, behind Spirit Son, and Finians Rainbow because of the trip. As it's fair to say he's struggled to get home over 2 miles, so I don't see him improving over 2m4. I would say Synchronised, but I won't be back anything in the National anyways!
http://betting.betfair.com/horse-ra...u-should-trust-cheltenham-form-at-090412.html It's funny how nearly everybody apart from Geraghty and Henderson thinks Finian's Rainbow absolutely 110% is NOT crying out for further than 2m. I am one of them.
I think that Finian’s Rainbow going over 20 furlongs is a ‘sighter’ to see if he stays the distance. Next season connections realise he has little chance of beating Sprinter Sacre (sounds a dappy thing to say given the latter is still a novice but such is the impression he has made it is valid nonetheless) and so are keen to see if he stays the extra yardage and if he does Finian’s Rainbow is likely to be Ryanair bound in 2013. Looking at his heat (Friday’s Melling Chase) it doesn’t look the strongest ever renewal of a prize worth £175,000 and if Finian’s Rainbow stays he undoubtedly should go very close as he 5 pounds+ clear of everything else on official ratings and a lot of his rivals are badly, and I do mean badly, out of form. But as to the question ‘Festival winners that will get beaten at Aintree’ Sychronised would deffo top the list for me.
Yeah, I think they're in trouble with Finians in that the yard massively rate (I suspect) both Sprinter Sacre over 2m and Riverside Theatre over 2m4f more highly than him. Which leaves him as their second string, despite being Champion Chaser! To be frank I think he looks a non-stayer and so will have to be the second fiddle in next years Champion Chase. Much as I think Sizing would have won but for the last fence, Finians ran an exceptional race that day, so if he stays up to that level then between the two the yard could reasonably be expected to win pretty much every decently funded 2m chase next season. Put Sprinter Sacre in every race Sizing Europe enters, and Finians Rainbow in the rest, and they'd win a lot of cash. Cheltenham winners that will get beaten: Countrywide Flame, Bobs Worth (if he goes), Finians Rainbow, Synchronised. I'll also look to take on both Rock on Ruby and Riverside Theatre, but they both have a good shout in their races. Hunt Ball?! Surely not...
I agree with SBC. The step up in trip is because of the strength of Sprinter . If Riverside can win a grade 1 over 3m then they can move Finians up to the Ryanair. It shows the task Nicholls has in next years title race, even if he clings on this year. He'll be relying on his hurdlers more than his chasers which is a rare old state of affairs I think Rock on Ruby and Countrywide Flame are underrated by the majority and could well win again. There may be value in backing them and in taking on the likes of Sprinter Sacre and Simonsig. Sanctuaire and Aland Islands will put a decent fight against Henderson's big two- not saying they'll win but I always like to take on a long odds on favourite My final thought- Whatever Alberta's runs in , back it
From a out and out 2 miler to now being stepped up in trip. The effect the Sprinter has I guess. One that definitely will not win again is Hunt Ball.
I think Rock On Ruby is possibly being underrated. He was a convincing winner of the Champion Hurdle and had plenty left in the tank at the line too. He flopped at Aintree last year but had a harder race in the Neptune you would have thought. Not saying he's going to win but I couldn't rule him out at this stage.
I see that Rock on Ruby’s race (Saturday’s Aintree Hurdle) has attracted a very low turnout of just 7 runners (and 2 of those are rated below 150). Disgraceful as the prize pot stands at a cool £160k! In fact looking at Saturday’s first 3 races it wouldn’t be the biggest shock ever if the forum’s favourite trainer, Mr Henderson repeated his trick from last term of having the first 3 winners as he’s got Simonsig, Sprinter Sacre and Oscar Whisky set to run for him.
I think the Champion Hurdle was a hell of a hard race. I'd be looking to get ROR beat. Small turnout but are there any horses missing that you'd expect to see in a 2.5 mile Championship Hurdle?
The trouble is did Zarkandar, Overturn (both Champion), Oscar Whisky and Thousand Stars (both World) have any easier race? You then have Third Intention and Saphir River and you couldn't fancy either to beat the top 5. It could be a case of whoever takes their race best wins.
