That's a fair response by your definition Ron, but I suspect that the definition more regularly used by people on this site is something like "A price which represents a lower chance of the event occuring than it's true probability". I think by betting on value by that definition mathematically you win (averaged over a lot of bets).
I think we need to differentiate between "looking for value", a valid term in the betting circle and "having value". We all look for value and, when we find a bet that looks to be value, we feel we have value. However, I struggle to find any value in something that cost something and actually returned nothing tangible.
Subjective, certainly. But not intangeable, at least in the sense that it can be measured. If over-round can be calculated, and an arbing situation can be reached, value can be mathematically proven to exist. But in betting terms, achieving value is not necessarily the same as achieving profit, at least not when one bet is viewed in isolation.
What's value? A couple of pounds each way on something in the Grand National, irrespective of whether it wins or loses, can be concidered as value. Intangibles can have a substance of sorts.
Bit unlucky today Ron - 4 of the first 5 favs won at Taunton, yours the only one that got beat. That's the sort of thing that would make me think "**** my luck"
Slightly off topic but this reminds me of a few weeks back in the pub with a mate on the third day of the festival. He backed champion court fiver stright win at 9/1, and the horse went off at 8/1 so immediately he said he beat the bookie by getting a better price than the SP (is that value?) Anyhoo..the horse led or was in the first couple throughout the race until the end when SDC cruised past him and scored easily to which my mate then said, 'well i got a good run for my money' What exactly is classed/defined as getting a good run for your money?, i sure as hell dont wanna see my fiver 'have a good run for thier money' and lose,
I'd say it's that eternal brand of optimism we punters have isn't it? Yes, the horse lost, but it had every chance, didn't fall, wasn't tailed off or pulled up. Clutching at straws I suppose. It still bloody lost though in the cold light of day.
Just read your post Oddy. Hadn't seen the results. Oh well, must re-analyse the race with hindsight now to see if there was something I didn't take account of.
I think you've hit the nail on the head. If someone thinks that a piece of form is worth much more than what the bookies believe then you may believe that the subsequent price (higher than you expected) would represent value, but the bookies may think its the true price? I like the subsequent description of "getting a good run for your money" I think this may possibly relate to horses you believe have a smaller chance of winning perhaps at bigger prices and that is way you may place a smaller bet. If therefore this particular horse gets close to winning / placing (whichever the bet needs it to be) you may believe that you had a good run for your money as even though you may have thought it probably wont win you bet on it anyway (I certainly have) therefore your near to a payout and thus have a good run for your money. Interesting debate !!!!!
Yes there was a case for the winner but I ignored it because Pipe had 2 runners. The winner was expected to improve over the distance but I thought mine had more than enough in hand. Unfortunately mine couldn't even beat the second string even though that one wasn't certain to get the trip. My logic was that given that fact the second string would set a strong gallop to ensure the fav could go on and win. Beaten 7l by the second string doesn't say much for my logic. Just a small dabble on Decoy in the 16.30 Ffos Las tomorrow. £100 at 7/1 to see if I can recoup my last two lost stakes without risking too much. Just hope this isn't another decoy.
Surely 'trying to recoup your stake' is a poor reason for betting . . . . ? Chasing losses and all that.
OK Zen. Can't disagree with that. Thought the horse had a good chance and it's trading at 7/1 so I thought rather than go mad I would have a small bet. At those odds, if it wins I've wiped out the last 2 losers; if it loses the bank hasn't been hit too hard and I'm still in profit.
I don't know how this would go down but, as it is meant to be educational, how about if any of the experts on here disagree with my selection in its race they explain why it is not a good bet. Would certainly be educational for me.
Sorry Ron. Suspect my reply came across wrong. I can assure you that I meant it 'educationally'. Was just saying that backing something 'to recoup lost stakes' was a quick way to the poorhouse. If you have a genuine fancy then it's a perfectly valid selection. I'd still have a slight concern about whether staking to recoup is sensible. If it's a bet then it's a bet and should be backed accordingly, regardless of whether the previous selections were winners or losers.
I'm tempted to lay off Decoy to £100, now trading at 4s and 5s. Even at 5s I would win £200 if it comes in and lose nothing if it loses. Any views
On getting a run for you money, I think Smokin's mate has a point, in a round about sort of way. We invest on horses not just in the hope of a win, but because we like the concept. We could chase a win in a whole host of ways, but we chose the horse, because of what it offers us in emotional enjoyment. Kauto Star, Yeats etc., give us fulfillment beyond the punt. We like the way races are played out, and we get emotionally involved in the effort of the beast that just happens to be carrying our hard earned. That said, if my selection spends the whole race out the back, and is never sighted, then the enjoyment factor is much less than when my expectations are raised by a bold showing. I subscribe to a "run for me money." P.S. Best thread we've had on here in a while.
A gambler's instinct would be to let the bet run. But gamblers always lose (in the end). So the smart option is to cover your liabilities and have a free bet.
OK I may regret this but I'm going to settle for doubling my money at no risk. Now down to 11/4 so I'm going to lay it at 3/1 for £200. I can count my winnings before the race. Done.
