I'm back from a hiatus because I will be getting stuck into Ballybough Pat in the bumper at Ffos Las tomorrow. No prices available yet but the forecast is 13/2. If it opens at that price it will not last long. Hope all are well.
‎8.25 Kempton tomrrow Sunset Kitty 11/1 is a ridiculous price! Only 1lb higher than scoring over course and distance in January and is back in Class 4 for the first time since. Has been campaigned in Class 2 races subsequently and possibly over a trip too far. Trainer Mike Murphy in great form at present and Shane Kelly goes from Wolves to Kempton for one ride. 11s won't last very long!
A runner up today and its high time I landed a real stonker. I think I may have a possible candidate tomorrow. FOLIE A DEUX 16-1 Newcastle 5.25 has won twice this season off a mark of 100. Bizarrely in my opinion the handicapper has deemed it appropriate to drop him to 95. Tomorrows trip and going look pretty much ideal. The amateur jockey is an unknown quantity but takes a handy seven pounds off his back. All in all he looks pretty well treated and is a tidy price!
I have been tempted with the 4.30 race which is a 4/1 offer race with B365. The horse I like is by Montjeu out of a Vaguely Noble mare, and has been showing some really good form in his career on good spring ground. Then add in that the horse is ridden by the maestro AP Mccoy and trained by the in form Jonjo O'Neill and I think Glenstall Abbey is a really interesting horse tomorrow. He has been showing enough since he has returned to hurdles with this headgear on to suggest that he can win a race in time, and with AP adding valuable experience in the saddle I think an improvement is again likely here. 9/1 is a fair EW price for me
Thought he would love the ground and its an easier target but I couldn't fathom whether he was too bad to be true last time and whether hurdling is really what he needs. Not a 14/1 chance mind.
Obviously flattered by his form with Albertas Run but off this mark must have a serious chance. That said he didnt really perform in his last hurdle off this mark, if it was a chase I would be lumping on! I also dont trust Bowen having three in it, could be leaving Pure Faith in to keep the weights down for the others! Glenstal Abbey btw has never won with McCoy on board.
I think AP will take at least 3 of the first 5 at Ffos Las tomorrow and really like the Rebecca Curtis horse in the bumper
Amazing pedigree Nass. Vaguely Noble was some horse who relished the soft. As Stick says though, AP doesn't seem to have much luck on him so far. 4 wins and all with D Casey up.
AP only has been on him four times and got two close up seconds on him. If anyone can help him eek out a little bit more with the headgear on it will be AP
Race with a few old characters Stick. Your fancy has that one piece of outstanding form in the book,despite the fact it may be a little flattering. I suspect mood more than mark will be the deciding factor. Supreme De Paille runs off 122 and won off that 3 runs ago beating little tbh...he is 25/1 but pretty sure a race i'll not be playing in.
The favourite was beaten by a very nice horse last time out and should gain a win here. 6/4 not an exceptional price at all so might just watch this one.
The 5.30 at Limerick is a right tricky old race. Maggie the Cat is down to a very attractive 61,Mellow Manner has Pat Smullen on board off a mere 49 riding for the dad of Andy and Robby Mac..shrewd dude...both double figure prices. Also interesting is Harrier Reef who debuted over 6f,then ran over 10f before running a nice one over 5f...some good bits of form to take from that race in the context of this contest and on pedigree 7f should be spot on.He also runs off 49 and is 16's currently.Could be e/w value depending on how the market evolves.I can see a few of these being punted to exploit their mark...no point in finishing second and going up 5lb's for next time. Love these type of races..."more plots..............." as SBC would say. Anyone any views? The morning prices will be fascinating.
Obviously the most likely winner but I don't think Sunset Kitty will be out of the first 3 and has a good chance of winning if the fav doesn't have loads of improving left. Definitely capable of winning off this mark and in this grade.
Morning all. Such a shame to read that the Richard hannon trained Census has died after injuring his pelvis. R.I.P
On breeding, I was thinking along those lines vis-a-vis plenty of cut in the ground, but this horse appears to be the exception? Nass could well be right in that Glenstall Abbey quite probably favours "good spring ground".
Rumours going round that Montjeu has been put down. Unconfirmed at this stage but hope they are wide of the mark. Would be a massive shame.
Sportinglife are running the story Zen, RIP Montjeu, he has left his mark on racing and hopefully Glestal Abbey wins for him today.
