There's a great book on a similar subject - "Twelve Grand" by Jonathan Rendall. Full of betting-related pearls of wisdom. Particularly liked the one about a "professional gambler" who insisted horse xyz was "outstanding value" at 8/1. So he backs it and it comes twelfth. "But we got great value on him"
Forgot to mention I find this thread very interesting. Give me 10k and I would be ultra confident of making serious money IF betting on what I really fancy. But that is the problem with me , if I was to get a winner I start backing in races I shouldn't. That is the reason I will never be a good punter and why I am not betting at the moment.
Exactly what I did today RV. And thanks. I thought I would change the heading and try to make it educational.
Ditto Tuesday. I have a feeling there could be many days with no bets so won't mention any more no bet days.
I'm going for Woodlark Island in the 15.40 at Taunton. I should probably wait for the race to see if there is strong late support for his stable mate Duke's Art. But if there isn't I suspect the 6/4 currently available for the former will have gone. So I'll just have £400 at 6/4 Woodlark Island
how are you deciding the amounts for your bets? i ask because the odds aren't constant for each horse, nor is it every race or every day, so my brain says mathematically something has to be constant. this might be odd logic but if the amounts betted are equal every time, where every other factor changes, does that not mean you spread the risk a bit even if when you win you don't win so much, because you're not putting more money on a chance that you reckon has more chance of happening? (brain twisty end of sentence there) my habit when i work out if i were to bet is two horses per race of a meeting, ew bets, although i'm not actually sure if the bookies would allow that. but that would return modestly but consistently according to my trusty notebook. you're up already from a big win so no worries there, but how would you offset losses if there are any? i'm interested how to see how you get on and how your habits differ from the money better people who are on here, if at all. saying that it's spring (yay) and the ground has changed (hm) so it's all getting a bit unpredictable. and g'luck! who's that commentator who always says 'let's see what happens'?
Nothing scientific Petito. If I had more time and more data/information to use I would probably stake 10% of my bank on a highly confident selection. I would also probably restrict my betting to only highly confident selections. However when I did adopt this method many years ago with real money, I ended up not finding anything to bet on and, basically, stopped betting. I then tested Timeform when I retired (having been a very enthusiastic Timeform customer for many years when I was younger) and was so disappointed with their performance, compared to when Phil Bull was at the helm, that I wrote to them. They explained that all tipping services were experiencing the same problem due to the development of training methods and inconsistent weather. Haven't bet since, apart from when going to the racecourse and then it's just fun bets. For this exercise there is a bit more risk attached so that I at least get something to "bet on". Also it is aimed at being educational with valuable contributions from the more experienced, successful punters. Regardless of whether the £10,00 grows or disappears I hope that the exercise will prove useful. My first bet was speculative in the sense that I was as confident as I could be with the data available but recognising it was less than that on which a professional would bet. My second bet was a very good example of being stupid ie looking for a quick follow up with my winnings from earlier in the day and not studying the race in full.
It doesn't need to win for you to have had the value. Getting the value is more important than getting the result, because if you do the former consistently, you will show a profit over time. Also, you have no power over the result, but you do have the power to choose your bets.
Value is in the eye of the beholder, just because its shorter than what you backed it at doesn't mean you have value. I am actually coming to the belief that value is a falsity, and looking for it is a misguided ambition.
Something which, after the investment, is of more value to you than what you paid for it. Edit. That was in answer to your comment Nass.
