This would all be completely and totally correct if I had only considered the final points totals. There will have been indications earlier in the season that a higher points total than normal would be required to stay in the Premier League. I am not saying "we definitely need less", I am making an estimate based on facts. It's also safe to say that in actual fact only 73 points were needed to get 6th place last season, as 7th placed Leeds finished on 72. Nottingham Forest could have drawn against Crystal Palace and still made it into the playoffs. This exact situation is why statistical analysis is a valid profession. People can predict outcomes reasonably accurately based on statistics, that is what I am doing. You're trying to snub out a perfectly reasonable argument with the boring old line "you can't predict the future". Your argument suggests that an entire team may spontaneously combust during their last match of the season. Due to the fact that this has never happened before, I can accurately predict that this won't happen. I am merely speculating and estimating, with reasonable accuracy based on what I know, and suggesting our playoff chances may be higher than we all originally thought. The problem you seem to be having is that you haven't considered that I am basing this on a comparison between the current state of the table and a previous season. If I was basing this entirely on previous seasons without considering the current state of affairs, then yes, it would be a waste of time. Taking the average points total from the last 10 seasons is a great way to predict how many points you'll need to make the playoffs at the start of the season before a ball has been kicked. However, since I am taking the current state of the table into consideration and comparing it to the same stage last season, it is perfectly reasonable to say "we will probably only need 73 points to make the playoffs". If you consider that over the course of a full season, the average points total required to get in the playoffs is between 72 and 73. The upper limit is 75, and the lower limit is 70. This is because no 6th placed team has finished on higher than 75 points or lower than 70 points since the playoffs were introduced. That gives you your average points total. Over the course of 46 games, the average is 72.5 with a range of 5, as the individual values considered range from 70 to 75. We only have 8 games left. Over the course of 8 games, the average points gained by a 6th placed team is somewhere between 12 and 13. The range of values will be significantly less, in fact the range of values doesn't exceed these limits of 12 and 13. Since the team that was 6th at this stage last season had 60 points and 73 points were required to beat 7th placed Leeds to the last playoff spot, we can accurately predict that 73 points is the magic number for this season. As we are making a statistical analysis, this is considered to be accurate, as anomalous stats cannot be accurately accounted for by any measure. A haul of 24 points from 8 games for a playoff chasing team is considered to be an anomalous statistic, as it is wildly unlikely based on averages. And that's all we have to go on. Maybe go back to school and do GCSE statistics.
I could do that if you want, making the assumption that all teams in the top 6 pick up as many points as is possible for them, with the lower placed team winning in each "6 pointer".
As a keen stats geek I have followed the comments with interest and would like to put in my worthless twopenneth. As stated the spread of points is fairly consistent over the season from top to 6th place 9 with some obvious "way out season" depending on strength of the division. Stats can be fun but in reality they do not offer a cert or even close prediction of likely outcome. However here is my little effort based on, FIXTURES to come, PREDICTION of results (impossible) favourable to my beloved Leeds, and finally a running POINTS total based on pathetic attempts to predfict the results. The final table shows the "winning" 3 to reach the playoffs. HTML: Table 1: Fixtures to come in order (Home in CAPITALS, Away in lower case) MID â¦. ips brg CAR hul der DON SOU wat BRG â¦. MID bur REA whu WAT BIR bar BIR â¦. don bur CRY whu BRS ips brg REA CAR â¦. MIL mid WAT bar DER LEE cry BLK â¦. SOU wat BAR not LEE BUR mil HUL â¦. por COV mil MID wat BAR NOT whu LEI â¦. NOT pet DON ips mil BUR WHU lee LEE â¦. WAT rea DER PET blk car LEI Table 2: Results predictions favourable to Leeds ( A waste of time) MID â¦. 1 0 1 0 3 3 1 1 BRG â¦. .. 3 0 1 0 3 1 3 BIR â¦. 3 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 CAR â¦. .. 3 1 3 1 3 1 3 BLK â¦. .. 1 1 3 1 1 3 3 HUL â¦. 1 3 1 3 1 3 3 0 LEI â¦. 3 1 3 1 1 3 0 0 LEE â¦. .. 3 1 3 3 1 1 3 Table 3; Points accumulations based on the predictions ?? MID (61) 62 62 63 63 66 69 70 71 BRG (62) 62 65 65 66 66 69 70 73 BIR (60) 63 64 65 66 69 70 71 72 CAR (60) 60 63 64 67 68 71 72 75 BLK (60) 60 61 62 65 66 67 70 73 HUL (58) 59 62 63 66 67 70 73 73 LEI (55) 58 59 62 63 64 67 67 67 LEE (57) 57 60 61 64 67 68 69 72 End results would give ( apart from GD and thats given as prersent) The 3 Playoff "winners" ?? Team â¦.. Pts â¦.. GD CAR â¦.. 75 â¦.. 7 BLK â¦.. 73 â¦.. 10 BRG â¦.. 73 â¦.. 8 HUL â¦.. 73 â¦.. 6 BIR â¦.. 72 â¦.. 19 LEE â¦.. 72 â¦.. 2 MID â¦.. 71 â¦.. 3 LEI â¦.. 67 â¦.. 8 If you believe this lot you are a bigger fool than me.# Hopefully you will find something of use, even if its just the FIXTURES to come. I might even update this after each week (for my amusement) Please note I am retired and have time to waste
