Pompey - One last throw of the dice?

Was reading this on the BBC earlier:

"Meanwhile, Portsmouth boss Michael Appleton says the outcome of the next two home games against Bristol City and Birmingham will affect the club's transfer decisions next week.

Two victories would give Pompey a fighting chance of survival but a couple of defeats would almost certainly condemn the club to relegation.

Appleton says this could help decide whether or not players are sold ahead of the loan window closing next Thursday with the club planning for life in League One.

The club have already sent Hayden Mullins, Liam Lawrence and Erik Huseklepp out on loan and more could follow before Thursday if Pompey lose their next two games as they look to slash their wage bill.

"We are not stupid, we know if we lose the games it is going to be very difficult to stay up," Appleton told BBC Radio Solent.

"But if we do win the games there is an opportunity to stay up bearing in mind we still have to play Doncaster, Coventry and Forest around us.

"I think that what happens on the pitch on Saturday and Tuesday will dictate what happened on Wednesday and Thursday."

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So the next two home games could decide what happens next with Pompey. If they win and give themselves a chance of staying up, with games against Coventry, Doncaster and Forest to come they may not loan out more players. However should they lose they will loan as many out as possible to prepare for League One? Surely thats a huge gamble? You either have to loan players out to stay afloat or you don't? What if they give themselves a sniff and keep players but still fall short, would this mean the end?

Surely if they are still making a loss and more players can be loaned out they should do that anyway regardless of the football side of things. Unless there are buyers in the wings who will only purchase the club if they are in the Championship?

I seem to recall that when we were in trouble we loaned out players regardless and just had to accept that we could no longer play any of our better players even if it gave us a chance of Championship survival.

It seems Pompey have decided that it is stick or twist time with the next two games. Either preserve themselves and accept League One if they lose. Or have one last throw of the dice and go all out for Championship survival and at the same time jeopordise survival by not making further palyer cuts?

What do you think Saints and Pompey fans?

 

I think they have the potential to get a couple draws out of the remaining fixtures, nothing more. Hope they cause Bristol some trouble tomorrow, keep it interesting like.

 

The gap from survival is currently 8 points.

If BC win tomorrow then it increases to 11 points!

If they come to St Mary's with a difference of 13 points then we can relegate them if we win!

 

In reality it's only one months wages for 2 or 3 players we're talking here. So perhaps 200k as a high estimate. I don't know the exact difference between a championship teams income and a league 1 side, but I expect it runs to well over a million, possibly two.

This is worth the business risk, plus gate receipts wil be higher for a team with something to play for

 

So regardless of their own results its too far to claw back and they should therefore loan out players. Gotta say I would want more of a "fighting chance" of staying up with so much at stake.

They are a much weakened team from the one we payed at there place so I, four one would expect us to beat them quite comfortably at home this time. Would really put the icing on the cake to relegate them but the 3 points is all that matters.

 

Didn't look at their remaining fixtures, just the points, so I didn't think they had an earthly chance. However, they have 7 Home games to come and 4 Away. The Away games are at Coventry, Doncaster, Nottm Forest and Us. The 7 Homes games are against, Bristol City, Brum, Hull, Burnley, Millwall, Palace and Derby. Even losing to Saints, which I think is the biggest dead cert of the lot [sorry Devon, PM, Meowth, et al] leaves games that they could get results from. I actually don't think it's over for them yet. Though I doubt whether their remaining players have the fight left.

 

How much fight would you have not knowing if your going to be going to work in the same place in 7 days time. David Norris was saying in the same article that he could turn up for work and then be told you he's going out on loan somewhere. Don't thnk anyone would really have much fight left in them with all that uncertainty. I think this was also the case with Saints when it became a firesale under Lowe. no unity on or off the pitch because people were having to play for themselves.

I wonder if anything would have been different if we didn't have that firesale, would we have been out of business or would Markus have still come in for us but without having to build the team from scratch.don't think we would have got to the Prem any quicker.

 

Yeah, totally valid point, you make. I think we needed League One to regroup in. It cleared out Lowe, and enabled Markus to come in and buy relatively cheaply. The Club could grow again, people new to the business could learn their positions, whilst not having to compete at Championship level, and so not having to buy the most expensive players, but players good enough to go through League One and then be coached into performing well in the Championship.

On the Pompey front, this is where Appleton could really earn his reputation. Motivation comes from not only keeping their club up, but the players are effectively putting themselves on show to other clubs. At least, that's what I'd be telling them, if it was me in charge. How many out there would fancy it..? I think Appleton is between a rock and a hard place.

 

Can you clear this up for me? Pompey have 5 games left after we've played them, so surely a difference of 16 points is needed?

 

"Either preserve themselves and accept League One if they lose. Or have one last throw of the dice and go all out for Championship survival and at the same time jeopordise survival by not making further palyer cuts?"

This perfectly sums up Pompey's dilemma - as I've said on another thread, the playing staff is now so weakened and demoralised, it's hard to see where the next point is coming from - despite Appleton's admirable fighting spirit. It's a no brainer - it has to be relegation and survival ...

 

And the ridiculous part of it is that they could get enough from their remaining games, As I mentioned earlier, apart from Saints, it isn't the hardest run-in going. 7 Home games and 4 Away.

Who'd be a Pompey supporter right now..?

 

I think RLGB should have said could rather than can. Assuming you're correct in saying that Pompey would still have five games left after us, then they would need Bristol City (or whoever Pompey are 13 points behind) to win, if they were to go down that day following a defeat to us.

But even then, with our game being an early ko, they wouldn't officially be relegated at FT. It may only be a couple of hours they'd have to wait, but at least they'd be out and clear of St Marys by then. To potentially be relegated at FT at St Marys, then yes they would need to be 16 points adrift going into the game.

 

To be honestI think it was a pretty good job for Appleton. As you say he can really earn his reputation by keeping them up or at leat making a really good go of it. Established managers wouldn't want it and could probably see the writing on the wall. Maybe thats why Cotterill left. No matter what Appleton does his reputation can only be enhanced really, no one is going to blame him if they do go down. So it was a no lose situation really.

I really couldn't stand Lowe (not alone on that one!) and was so glad to see the back of him. However in hindsight, he really didn't have a choice and did make some tough decisons which ultimatley still weren't enough to stave off administration. Had Crouch and Wilde not ousted him and spent too much and put us in the ****, we would never have gone into admin and would probably just be a journey club in the Championship. Instead we had to hang over the abyss to come back much stronger, wealthier and at the top. Its a funny old game!!

 

I dont buy this whole Appleton could get a great reputation out of this. Anyone in his situation would come out of this the same. Anyone would make a real go at it and anyone could/will blame the clubs £ position as to what happens next.

The facts -
They had £ issues when he went there.
They still had tonnes of premiership players from last season plus some really good additions.
They lose 10 points.
They lose some good players.
They only started losing those good player well after half the seson has gone and with 11 gaes left they still have some fairly good players.

All this shows is he is a manager dealing with a situation. Not disimilar to Andy Thorne at Coventry.

I have no sympathy for the club or the manager who knew the situation he got himself into, for me, he cant really lose as he has all the ready made excuses. im not saying he is a bad manager, for me he is just in a good position to have a go next season or move on back to the championship in the summer.

 

Give us a pair of Dice to throw at the moment and we'd probably manage to score ONE!

I for one have reached peaceful acceptance that we are going to be relegated now. The important detail is not whether or not defeat at St Mary's confirms it mathematically - I'm past worrying about such mundane matters. Whether we will still manage to exist with no money coming through the turnstiles in May, June or July. That is the real question. If Pompey actually start next season [in League One], then my hopes for the club's immediate future will have been achieved

 

The biggest worry for pompey fans must be the lack of talk about buy outs! Contrast this with rangers where the administrator put a deadline for bids, and got three. Pompey's plight remains severe, and the need to ship out the higher earners (best players?) just to get in loan fees, and reduce the wage bill tells the story about the state of their finances. Clearly they do not have the money to finish the season without these measures. More worryingly is the fact that after the season ends, there will be hardly any cash coming in, with continued wage bills throughout the summer. They need to get a big enough cash balance to tide them over the summer, with little cash inflow. Personally, and I genuinely take no pleasure in this, I think the outlook is close to terminal UNLESS a buyer is found very very soon.

 

I fear for Pompey I really do........Although the present administrators are keeping things a lot closer to their chest. No wild statements or broken promises. Just plain speaking and to the point. Which is how it should be......The manager is doing a Stirling job under the most harrowing of circumstances. In my mind at least he has earned his corn! Pompey's morons aside...I really feel for there genuine fans!!

 

The major difference with Rangers is that they are a massive club with virtually guaranteed European football, so will attract high rollers, though how they are going to overcome their massive debts is another question. Southampton had assets and were a snip, yet found it hard to attract much serious interest. So what chance do Pompey have with no assets and a higher price. Like it or not, neither Portsmouth nor Southampton have a romance about them. Markus liked us because he saw a family club with potential at a cheap price which he could buy for his friend to fulfill his dream (why can't I get pals like that!). Cortese doesn't care greatly about our past because he wants to rebrand us into a big club (and we all wish him well in that).
I'm sure PFC will survive in some form and have the catchment area to support a decent club, but they should cinch their seatbelts and prepare for a bumpy ride.