Shadow Catcher for me guys... raced keenly and greenly last time at Leopardstown where Asaaid, Hisabaat, Countrywide Flame and Ut De Sivola where all running. Hisabaat only won that day imo because of a mistake at the last took one too many steps but this horse can travel and has gears is generally a good jumper of a hurdle, This is only his third start over hurdles there's alot more to come imo Paul Carberry rides him and is my banker for tomorrow. Although I do like cheltenham form for a triumph winner. :/
Selections for tommorrow: 1.30 SADLERS RISK 6/1 was the stables best fancy at the festival but ran a stinker LTO against BABY MIX, he has all of the attributes of a Triumph winners, bred out of Sadlers Wells, has winning form on the flat over 12f off a Rating of 82, the only mark against him was his 2nd in the ADONIS which is normally a good pointer to the Triumph winner, however, i have feeling that he may not have been ready that day and will be running on up the hill tommorrow, one that has EW claims and should go off at a nice price is WEST BRIT @ 40/1 who seemed to benefit from a win op and the fitting of a tongue strap, winning comfortably in a very fast time, when eased up LTO. 2.05 TED SPREAD 16/1 (EW) and IFYOULETMEFINISH 20/1 (EW) on a day when trends are significant, these two hit most of them, of particular note is that 7/10 of the last runnings have been won by horses with no previous Cheltenham form and that Paul Nicholls has been able to train three winners and a second in the County Hurdle in the last eight years, all of which had pretty dire form prior to the race. IFYOULETMEFINISH DH LTO with short priced favourite URBAIN DE SIVOLA who runs in the Triumph Hurdle and could provide a significant pointer to my selections chances. 2.40 BOSTON BOB 6/4, MOUNT BENBULLEN 11/2 and BRINDISI BREEZE 11/1 are my three against the field here all three have done nothing wrong leading up to the festival, however, i think the Irish may have the edge and BOSTON BOB is my selection to win with BRINDISI BREEZE a confident EW bet. 3.20 LONG RUN 7/4, KAUTO STAR 7/2, and SYNCHRONISED 11/1(EW) are the major players on show and i expect all four to be involved in the shake up, however, my heart is saying KAUTO but my head says LONG RUN to win with SYNCHRONISED being my EW bet. 4.00 SALSIFY 6/1 to win and BRADLEY 40/1 (EW) who i think is a cracking EW bet, lightly raced and has the necessary credentials having won the Intermediate Point-to-point Championship Final Hunters' Chase back in May 2010 when running on over 3 miles 1f at Cheltenham on Good ground. 4.40 BOURNE 11/2 won a competitive handicap LTO, and doesnt look too badly treated for that race, has plenty of scope for further improvement. 5.15 DE BOITRON 10/1 EW has C&D form runs off a cracking mark and looks to be in with a cracking chance, im sure Ferdy also said it was his best chance of the meeting, at a bigger price NORTHERN BAY 33/1 EW could go close off a cracking mark, but the C&D form for DE BOITRON gets my vote to win.
Evening gents. Stick and Yorkies top stuff in telegraph comp Sweet on Baby Mix tmz and choc is on the wrong one so saver on balder succes. Also like Chapoturgeon , Olofi , Oscar Nominee , Bellvano( CARBERRY perfect for him) And of course long run in the big one
pffft i am off to bed. i haven't even got past the first race. I am convinced that Pearl Swan is the class horse in this race but I really worry about the stable form. That said I can't find anything I want to oppose him with. The mind boggles.
Not been on in a while but kept an eye on some of the postings! Hope all is going well for all at the Festival!!!! Had a so-so week - place pot up first day. Sir Des Champs & Simonsig good wins. Albertas Run making me a good return e/w and stuffed with the rest! BALDER SUCCESS; EGARDO SOL; FOX APPEAL; LONG RUN; ON THE FRINGE; MOLOTOF and FRENCH OPERA tomorrow! Good Luck!!
1.30 HOLLOW TREE 18/1 & ASAID 40/1 In what looks a very open race, I’ve taken two against the field here at decent e/w prices. The first I like the look of is Donald McCain’s 4 year old HOLLOW TREE who has already registered a Grade 1 victory to his name in his short hurdling career. A decent recruit from the flat, Hollow Tree has won 3 of his 5 races over hurdles and has never been beaten by more than 3.5L in his brief career over jumps. This likeable front runner made his debut back in September for McCain when running out a wide margin winner. On his 2nd start over tomorrows C+D, he finishing a 3L beaten 2nd to Hinterland who I feel is a very useful prospect. After this Hollow Tree regained winning ways by landing two on the bounce, the first a juvenile hurdle before landing a Grade 1 at Chepstow on Heavy ground back in December. On his final start, Hollow Tree finished a 3.5L beaten 3rd behind two horses at the front of the market at Cheltenham at the end of January in the form of Grumeti and Pearl Swan, and Hollow Tree will be 3lb lighter than Grumeti in tomorrow’s race. Although it may look like he needs to find a bit on these two rivals, it is definitely worth noting that jockey Jason Maguire lost his whip in the latter stages of the race and the deficit would have been much smaller if this had not occurred. At nearly three times the price of these two rivals, I am far happier siding with Hollow Tree who has good form at the track without winning and whose trainer Donald McCain is in top form. Although there are some doubts about his ability to handle good ground, he won on good to firm on his maiden hurdle success and also on the flat and its not too much of a concern to me. If he’s improved for his last effort than I see no reason as to why Hollow Tree can’t go close tomorrow. The other horse I like in the race is John Feguson’s 4 year old ASAID who I put in my ante-post portfolio as a 50/1 shot but 40s is still available if you haven’t already had a bet. Another recruit from the flat, Asaid made his hurdling debut at Huntingdon in January when winning by 2L to One Lucky Lady with the front two drawing well clear of the rest. The form of that race is very strong with the 2nd winning on her only 2 subsequent starts. On Asaid’s 2nd start, he came over to Leopardstown to compete in a Grade 1 where he came an eye catching 4th. With a few furlongs to go, Asaid looked badly outpaced and dropped to the rear of the field before making relentless headway in the home straight. My take on it is he completely switched off in the hands of tomorrows jockey Barry Geraghty and with experience of the horse already I am sure this won’t happen tomorrow. On his final start Asaid returned to winning ways in workmanlike fashion when scoring by 2L but I can’t help but think there was a fair bit left in the tank. He’ll definitely have to step up on that effort but I think he is capable of it, and at 40/1 the value exists that he will be able to. Two things are very interesting to note about Asaid. Firstly, it was trainer John Ferguson’s first and only runner outside of the UK which demonstrates his opinion of the horse and the second can be found in Barry Geraghty’s blog. Geraghty went to school Asaid recently at the Ferguson yard and said Barry Geraghty, who was on riding that day, is booked again and after schooling Asaid recently he said : "I think the Leopardstown race woke him up because he felt a different horse this morning, very switched on. I was delighted with him” which is definitely encouraging news. Although he has a bit to find on form with the three in front of him at Leopardstown who reoppose tomorrow, Geraghty's comments coupled with the hill finish at Cheltenham lead me to believe he is certainly worth a wager at a massive price 2.05 SNAP TIE 14/1 NAP Snap .Tie is possibly the most interesting runner at the entire Cheltenham festival. Phillp Hobbs 10 year old hasn’t been seen on the track since October 2009 but I think he could be absolutely thrown in off his current mark of 137. In his career to date, Snap Tie has finished a narrowly beaten 2nd in a Grade 1 and a Grade 2 race including behind the excellent Harchibald who in his prime was rated 162 and a multiple Grade 1 winner. Snap Tie has lots of excellent form with other top class horses such as beating the multiple Grade 1 winning Katchit, finishing 1L behind the excellent Calgary Bay whilst conceding him 8lb, as well as finishing 3rd behind the excellent Captain Cee Bee and Binocular in the Supreme Novices back in 2008. This form makes him unquestionably well handicapped if retaining his old form and there is no way he would be kept in training for so long if this wasn’t the case. Snap Tie absolutely loves it around Cheltenham, winning twice and finishing a narrowly beaten 2nd on two other occasions which is another huge bonus. Furthermore, Snap Tie has a very good record on the back of a break with 3 of his wins coming on the back of 5 months absences or longer which is a massive positive. The fantastic Richard Johnson takes the ride and with trainer Phillip Hobbs already registering a winner at the Festival I am very, very confident of a massive run tomorrow. I also like the look of Paul Flynn’s MOON DICE but I think he’ll do extremely well to win off 11-11 2.40 SIVOLA DE SIVOLA 25/1 NB I really, really fancied Tom George’s 6 year old before Boston Bob was declared to go for this race and although the favourite is going to be very difficult to beat a lot of Willie Mullins’ horses have run below par this week and there is definitely a chance Boston Bob may not run to his ability, especially given he will have to negotiate this 20 strong field. In his 8 starts to date, Sivola De Sivola has been successful on three occasions and has posted some rather decent form. He finished 2nd behind the excellent Spirit Son on his 2nd start (although easily beaten) who finished 2nd in the Supreme Novices and looks a real contender for the Champion Hurdle next year and 4L in front of Palace Jester, a 139 rated hurdler. After landing a maiden and novice hurdle, Sivola De Sivola ran into a few very talented rivals in the shape of Fingal Bay and Barbatos and it was a pretty good effort. On his 2nd last start, Sivola De Sivola won well on his handicap debut off a mark of 122 before putting in a very eye catching 4th over a vastly inadequate 17f at Cheltenham off a mark of 132 in January. Its very evident to me that Sivola De Sivola is still a very much improving horse and is very unexposed over 3m+, winning his only start at this distance. Reading jockey Paddy Brennan’s opinions on the horse at a Cheltenham Preview night, it seems he is very sweet on his horse chances and it definitely represents his best chance of the festival. With improvement a guarantee, I definitely think Sivola De Sivola has the scope to play a strong hand in the finish and whether or not his improvement will be enough time will tell. I advised him at 33s in ante-post portfolio and I think he’ll run a massive race as he’s clearly been laid out for a tilt at the festival. 4.40 BOURNE 11/2 I’m not one for backing relatively short priced horses in big handicap races but I think Bourne looks a very well handicapped and improving animal. A very talented horse on the flat, Bourne switched to hurdling in December 2011 for Donald McCain and was successful on his debut for the yard at Catterick over 19f. The form of that race is strong with the second Into Wain winning on his next 2 starts before finding Grade 2 Company too hot on his last start. After this race, Bourne was dropped back in trip to 2m which didn’t really suit where he was a well beaten 3rd on his 2nd start before finishing a narrowly beaten 2nd on his 3rd start. On his last start, Bourne made his handicap debut off a mark of 125 last month where he ran out an impressive 3.5L winner. After making a mistake earlier on, Bourne travelled into the race really well under tomorrow’s jockey Henry Brooke and stayed on powerfully up the run into to land a deserved success. For this effort, he was stepped back up to 20f which definitely suited. Tomorrow he is stepped up in trip again by an extra furlong which looks sure to suit, as does the Cheltenham hill given he was increasing his margin of victory the further they went LTO. The form of that race took a massive boost today with the 2nd Smad Place running an absolute cracker today to come 3rd behind Big Bucks and consequently the 10lb rise looks very, very manageable. With trainer Donald McCain in good form and with jockey Henry Brooke one of the best jockeys in this amateur contest, Bourne will definitely win off his current mark of 135 in the near future and lets hope he achieves that tomorrow. 5.15 DE BOITRON 11/1 & OISEAU DE NUIT 14/1 Its absolutely clear in my eyes that Ferdy Murphy’s 8 year old DE BOITRON has been aimed at this race after running an excellent 4th in this race last year off a 2lb higher mark. This C+D winner represents an in form yard and with the talented Lucy Alexander taking 5lb off with her claim he is fully 7lb lower than his effort in the race last year and looks sure to go well. I also think last years winner OISEAU DE NUIT has fair claims of retaining his title this year. Although 7lb higher, Colin Tizzard’s 10 year old put in an absolutely fantastic effort behind Wednesday’s Queen Mother Champion Chase winner Finnian’s Rainbow when finishing beaten 2.5L when conceding that rival 1lb and that form is really really strong in the context of this race. Tomorrow’s jockey S Clements, who was on that day and who was on board for the win last year, clearly gets on very well with the horse and I envisage he’ll run a very good race if his jumping holds up.
Dood morning lads, It's the day of the outsider....all to be backed in the place market on the exchanges, or EW with your preffered bookmaker!: Countrywide Flame. Might like the hurly burly. Clerks Choice. C&D form. Class above? Sea of thunder (NAP) Very unlucky at its last visit to the track. Synchronised. Pure folly to underestimate. Picaroon. Could be anything. Gormanstown Cuckoo. Can't get THAT Aintree race out of my head. And...could the stable change bring further improvement? Renard. Typical V.Williams improver. Think all will like the ground. Good luck lads!!
Stone, very interesting you tip up WEST BRIT. Watchrd the race it won at Muss. Red Inca form intersesting?
3:20 Cheltenham (Gold Cup) - Weird Al (Had a decent e/w bet on him a few days ago at 12/1. Very hopeful of a good run. Certainly been kept fresh for this. Any returns, will put something on Du Boitron in the curtain raiser, although the Murphy man is as difficult to figure-out as the Pipe man IMHO - ). Very best of luck today everyone!
A very respected friend of mine has given me a strong word for CORNUS in the Grand Annual. Its reliable i'll be having a small stake at 40s
My big bet for the day. Gold Cup Long Run 9/4 (Betfred) 10pts win Long Run / Kuato Star 5pts Reverse Forecast (10pts total) You must also have this bet for it to work. Long Run will either win this race or get beaten by Kuato Star. I just don't see any other outcome. There is nothing in the field in Long Run / KS class. The logic is Long Run will not be out of the top 2 unless he falls. The bet does not work the other way round as I believe Kuato Star is not guaranteed to be in the Top 2. That is my big nap for the day. The Best outcome would be of course Long Run to beat Kuato Star. Either outcomes you still end up winning...
morning folks. had a rubbish day betting wise yesterday at the course. my best result was being able to stroll into the club enclosure all day without a badge. if you're going today and in tatts then I suggest you stroll along to the last entrance and get yourself on the lawn in front of the stands cos the lads manning that aren't too bothered. was brilliant to see big buck's and the horsewalk back in front of the stands, but the loudest noise I've ever heard on a racecourse was when I was in the stands watching the ryanair. incredible noise. so glad kauto is there today, makes it such an occasion, not that I'm going. today I'll be on various donkeys, asaid the first if them. hope old Carruthers can do himself justice as well. good luck all.
Looks like a bit of a pinstickers day today to some extent so here goes: 1.30 Grumeti I'm on the same 16/1 double as stick and tbh am bloody lucky that the bet is still alive thanks to the stewards last time out. Will let that bet ride because I'm struggling to find another in the field who really appeals. Can't back anything of Nicholls at the moment and the Irish horses seem to have been beating each other all season. Could well be a big priced winner but I'll be crossing my fingers for Grumeti 2.05 Snap Tie & Local Hero As posted above Snap Tie looks potentially thrown in on his best form and is worth an e/w play, given Phillip Hobbs decent record in the race. 5 year-olds also have a tremendous record in this, haven taken 8 of the last 13 runnings, so it makes sense to back on of those and the one I like is Steve Gollings Local Hero. He ran behind Simonsig at Kelso and just failed to land me the straight forecast, having been pipped for 2nd by Knockara Beau. That was clearly just a pipe-opener for Local Hero and I think he will go really well today, given how well last season's juvenile form is working out. 2.40 Boston Bob Some very strong noises from respected judges in Ireland saying this is possibly the best novice they have ever had. The only slight doubt would be the ground but he has looked so authoritative all season and I don't believe good ground will count against him. In fact his most serious rival, Brindisi Breeze, has also done his winning with cut. Should be a fascinating contest. 3.20 Long Run The reigning champ is all about stamina and will once again see off Kauto Star up the hill. Wierd Al for a place or in the "without" markets. 4.00 Chapoturgeon Taking a risk that he will stay the trip but looked very, very good last time and didn't look like he was stopping. His sire, Turgeon, also sired the likes of Exotic Dancer, Violin Davies and Turko so has produced speedy stayers and of course Chapoturgeon already has winning festival form 4.40 Dan Breen (e/w) & Grandad's Horse (e/w) You can bet your bottom dollar that David Pipe will be trying to win "dad's race" and I think Dan Breen has been beautifully laid out for this. He hasn't run over hurdles for over 2 years (well down the field in graded races - Supreme, John Smiths at Aintree and the Swinton) but out uo a career best effort over fences a fortnight ago when going down to Aerial by a short-head off a mark of 143. At 20/1 definitely worth an e/w dabble. The other one I like is Charlie Longsdon's Grandad's Horse with the very capable Kielan Woods on board. Just touched off on his hurdling debut, he then rattled off a 4-timer before being outclassed behind Fingal Bay in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham in November. He's been put away since then (presumably waiting for better ground) and a rating of 134 does not look too bad at all here. 4.40 Bellvano Just for the spectacle of watching Paul Carberry off 10-2 riding an absolute bridle horse
LUCKY E/W 31. Combination of picks from not606ers and one of my own. Good luck to all!! 6/1 - Grumeti 13:30 Cheltenham 14/1 - Snap Tie 14:05 Cheltenham 9/1 - Brindisi Breeze 14:40 Cheltenham 20/1 - Attaglance NAP 16:40 Cheltenham 40/1 - Cornas 17:15 Cheltenham
I don't think anyone has mentioned it yet but alot of credit has got to go to Andrew Lynch on Voler L vedette yesterday. His jockeyship yesterday was fantastic. As was Ruby's. He was also very good in the Champion Chase when handling the debacle at the last. Very impressive jockey.
'2.40 Boston Bob Some very strong noises from respected judges in Ireland saying this is possibly the best novice they have ever had. The only slight doubt would be the ground but he has looked so authoritative all season and I don't believe good ground will count against him. In fact his most serious rival, Brindisi Breeze, has also done his winning with cut. Should be a fascinating contest.' I don't live in Ireland Oddy but i'll take the compliment all the same.
Agree Quel. He is top class.The gulf in class between the good and the bad and the ugly is massive,as this week has demonstrated.
