Quel: Good answer. Think london_man is short-sighted, or he shouts a lot in real life? Al Ferof and Zarkandar for me today. As someone mentioned above, don't in all honesty think Zark will beat HF, but the horse owes me absolutely nothing as I've backed him every time, including his festival win in 2011. The very best of luck to everyone today! (Hope my Filmon service from Channel 4 is in top nick today, otherwise I'll have to complain to OddDog............. please log in to view this image .........)
It's so interesting isn't it Oddy? SS has run in small fields all year so we know he excels in them but if he pulls as hard as he has I think his chance might get sunk. It's a totally different kettle of fish pulling around Kempton compared to Cheltenham with that hill at the end of the race. To be honest I'm hoping he gets the hill and is far enough in front of Al Ferof. As a betting community a bookie bashing with all shorties going in will force them to offer better prices as the week progresses to get their money back. An ideal scenario for us. And I'm as much of a lemming as any and have done the treble and acca with Boston Bob so today sets up the week.
have a good un to all those going today. For me the best think about cheltenham is that you can back very good horses at very good prices, none of this wading through maidens looking for glimmers, (saucy), but looking at strong form lines and seeing 20-1 against them. Course that makes it harder to curb the spending as well, I mean I'm on darlan, trifolium and simenon (leave it) already but look at hazy tom....fifties...50s... I really hope someone gets massively lucky this week, enjoy it as much as possible folks.
Morning All Not been on for ages as unable to access through work, was supposed to be working this week but luckily for me my youngest came out in chicken pox sunday night(unluckily for her, bless her) so quickly said to the wife I would take the week off to look after her !! One for me so far and that is Steps To Freedom in the opener, but also have a little fancy for Montbazon, Alan King seem to be quite keen on this one's chances. Cheers Trevez
Hello lads. Just noticed that if Hunt Ball wins today off 142 he will have improved,theoretically,a massive 73lb. I remember Dun Doire going from 79 to winning the NH h'cap chase at the festival off 129,a jump of 50lb's Anyone remember any other horses that have improved vast amounts in a short space of time?
Okay so lets kick things off- Day One is here! SUPREME NOVICE HURDLE- [/B]1.30 Cheltenham: VULCANITE 20/1 e.w The one who has been dangerously dismissed despite running very well against a whole host of Supreme Novice contenders in conditions that probably did not suit. Today he gets everything he needs- a strong pace, good ground, and I expect him to really skip across the ground today. The Charlie Longsdon yard have come into form at the perfect time and with a strong pace to aim at, Charlie Longsdon thinks he will be able to reverse placings with Tetlami and I think Vulcanite might relish the hill today. As I said in our Cheltenham preview evening, TRIFOLIUM 11/1 has to come into calculations if you think the British form is a much of a muchness. He has been beaten only once, and that was when he was outstayed by the superb So Young (Last years very unlucky 2/1 fav in the Neptune- a serious animal), but with a good pace today I am hopeful Davy Russell can settle him. So far, he has jumped very very well and that is what makes him so dangerous. The way he beat Simenon last time out was mighty impressive. He had the 139 rated CALOAENEOIN 18 lengths back in 3rd, and another half length back to JOXER, who has beaten Allure of Illusion (even if fortunately) and ran Midnight Game to half a length. Trifolium might be very smart, but it is crucial he settles. My antepost cover are at large odds on SIMENON and AGENT ARCHIE, both of whom look outsiders but both of whom are totally unexposed and who are definite improvers for todays ground. I think Simenons odds are ridiculous to be quite honest, I'd have him a 25/1 shot whereas he is 100 on Betfair. I actually fancy Agent Archie to run very, very well but I am concerned about the jockey- is young Henry Brooke talented? THE ARKLE CHASE 2.05 Cheltenham: SPRINTER SACRE 10/11 Al Ferof is a fantastic horse who is going places. But those places are 3 mile bound and perhaps a King George one day. He'll stay alright, and he'll motor up the hill again. However, if Sprinter Sacre settles early on and makes no mistakes, Geraghty will gradually allow him to stride on and providing he jumps as well as he has so far, he will be too far clear by the time they reach two out. He is an out and out 2 mile chaser, Al Feorf isn;t, and I think that will be the difference in the end. STAN JAMES CHAMPION HURDLE: 3.20 Cheltenham: HURRICANE FLY 10/11 I'll stick to what I said some weeks ago and that is a Hurricane Fly-Zarkandar forecast. Zarkandar has been overlooked in the last week or so as people were unimpressed with that Betfair Hurdle win. I personally thought it was a very, very good win because everything went against him, yet he still stayed on strongly eventually and picked off some very much in form hurdlers and was going away at the line. That was his seasonal reappearance, he'll have come on for that, the yard will be in better nick, and crucially he gets the Championship pace here. His only problem is that Hurricane Fly also stays 2 and a half miles and will love the pace as well. 2.40 Cheltenham: BAILE ANRAI 14/1 e.w Has been the one horse all season who stood out as a handicapper able to mix it with Graded Class horses, and he was travelling very, very well at Ascot last time out in a race that boasted non other than Invictus, Silviniano Conti, and Bobs Worth, before falling. Off a mark of 133 I should think he is on a very fair mark IF he puts in a good round of jumping. 4.00 Cheltenham: SIZING AUSTRALIA 4/1 This has long been the target, he will be spot on for this and I think he'll make a very bold bid against the two Mullins horses, of whom UNCLE JUNIOR I rate more than ScotsIrish. 5.15 Cheltenham: WHITE STAR LINE 16/1 e.w Really like some of this fellas form and he strangely ties in particularly closely with none other than SIR DES CHAMPS. He was beaten just 2 and a half lengths by Sir Des Champs in a hurdle last January, travelling really well, and he was only beaten 6L ny HIDDEN CYCLONE in a chase last time out, who went on to fnish a length and a quarter behind Sir Des Champs last time out in a Grade Two chase in Ireland. I am happy with his mark of 135 and there is only 10lb covering the field, so he has few excuses off that mark. Hoping for a great days racing, hope they all come home safe, jockeys and horses.
Fruity O'rooney 2:40 Harpsy Cord 5:15 E/w singles and a E/w Double And a patent with A. Kings horses Montbazon Hold on julio Bless the wings Good luck to all
Well here it is, let's get going! 1.30 Steps to Freedom 7/1 Can make a case for about ten but I'm not the sort to back 3 or 4 in the one race so have plumped for this one in the hope he's a much better horse now than he was in November when scrapping home against Prospect Wells. Sorely, sorely tempted by Dylan Ross, I'm sure a few remember me banging his drum on here a fair few times but I've not backed him yet, he may see a very small e/w stab at him. Was 40s last night so missed the boat on that! Open as heck. 2.05 Sprinter Sacre 10/11 Seems much improved for chasing, more so than AL Ferof and that dog Cue Card <bandit>. Is a joy to watch jumping a fence, pace to burn and I'd like to see BJ just let him roll on in the front should he refuse to settle. 3.20 Hurricane Fly 10/11 (Backed last years festival 5-1, 4-1) You know that 5-1 William Hill docket Mac was waving on the morning line? Yeah, well I've got one of those, quite lumpy it is too (sorry for bragging)... To be fair that old rogue Binocular would seem the most likely danger, but is he a better horse than the Hurricane?! We'll see about that today! The rest seem to be making up the numbers? I haven't hid how highly I rate this one and I'd be flabbergasted should anything beat him with a clean round. Paul Jones rates him better than Istabraq, Donn McClean says he has the potential to be better than that horse and I look forward to seeing daylight behind the Champ today. 4.40 Quevega 8/15 Shouldn't say this but I have a little chuckle to myself when i hear about potential dangers to her. Promises to be a day that tells us a lot, looking forward to it very much! Good luck all and as Quel says don't go bust on the first day
Morning all! Its been a while but hopefully today will be the start of making me rice! Gunna have all the Champions in an acca and also HF, SS and Quevega today! My bet for the week to make me rich is (all each way) Rock On Ruby, Hunt Ball (both today), Ulck Du Lin (Weds and my Nap for week) and Solix on Thurs makes me very happy!!! Good luck all for today and the week!
Away from Cheltenham i've very keen on Tutchec in the 3.35 at Sedgfield so if it all goes wrong at the Festival i can pray for this one to do me a favour. 5/2
Good luck all today A canadian for today Steps to Freedom Magnaminity Wedger Pardy Terre Du Vent (W/O quevega) Vino Griego
Good morning gents... Nice to see some newbies posting their thoughts and selections, good to see... So... 1.30 - Darlan and Prospect Wells e/w 2.05 - Sprinter Sacre 2.40 - Hold On Julio and Our Mick e/w 3.20 - Huricane Fly and Zarkandar w/o The Fly 4.00 - Dancing Tornado 4.40 - Quevga and Kells Belle e/w 5.15 - That'll Do And that will do for today... Not betting on every race like ive done in the past but if The Fly and Sprintre Scare win then it will be a good start to the day and festival... Good luck to all and lets enjoy what will be a great 4 days of racing...
My Lucky 15 EW (BOG, Treble odds consolation) 1.30 Darlan 6/1 2.40 The Package 6/1 4.00 ScotsIrish 4/1 5.15 That'll Do 14/1 Others I like: Hurricane Fly (nap) Sprinter Sacre
A Yankeee and Singles for me : 1.30 Montbazon - More I look at this one the more I like it (which means it will be unplaced !!), think there is plenty of improvement still to come. 2.40 Our Mick - It was a toss up between this one and Hold On Julio, just a bit worried about Hold on Julio's jumping in the big field. 4.00 Balthazar King - Just can't be having Scotsirish & Uncle Junior at the prices so have gone for a bit of value, though I always back Garde Champetre but think this maybe one year too many despite the course record ! 5.15 Hunt Ball - I know this has gone up the weights massively but is still obviously improving and its just a question of how much is left, think it was Jim Mcgraths fancy on the morning line and he did not seem topweight being a problem. Best of luck to everyone Cheers Trevez
There seems to be two different formlines in the Supreme Novices Hurdle, one through Steps To Freedom, Montbazon, Prospect Wells and Colour Squadron and the other through Galileo's Choice, Midnight Game, Dylan Ross and Distant Memories. I think Colour Squadron and Galileo's Choice are the two picks from then. Like Sprinter Sacre, I don't think the Cheltenham course suits Darlan. Al Ferof stayed on past Sprinter Sacre up the hill last year and I don't see anything different happening this year. Course form rules at Cheltenham. Hurricane Fly should win the Champion Hurdle but if Zarkandar is near enough at the finish, Ruby Walsh could find himself on the wrong horse.
