which cheltenham race and bet would you recommend if asked by a non race watcher?

hi all,

a friend of mine who doesn't watch racing (apart from maybe the national) has asked me for a cheltenham bet. the problem i have is the rest of the season i can usually sort out horses in a race but at cheltenham in the last few years i haven't done as well as the rest of the time, and so i don't bet on it.

what i was going to suggest is either:

a) £10 on al ferof to win (with paddy power - not sure about this one, there's only a predicted 42% chance SS will win to get your stake back but then again, only about 10% chance cue card will and the bet would make a loss)

or
b) £10 on long run to place in the gold cup, nice and simple, but odds are not long enough if he only places.

or
c) a combination of bets on SS, al ferof and cue card but i haven't worked out the figures for hopefully a return on just these 3, and i don't know if you can make multiple bets on the same race with one bookie.

or
d) something completely different like sizing europe or big bucks?

i'm after something fairly safe and in a race the public have heard of and i'm not sure what to recommend. can anyone give me any ideas?

i've also had a look at the chelts preview evening thread and still no nearer.

thanks

petito

 

Have a treble on the first day of Sprinter Sacre, Hurricane Fly and Quevega. Pays nearly 5/1

 

thanks for that King Shergar. i think i'll go off and look at HF and quevega races - i don't normally look at the card until the day before. then maybe i can pick one. my pal might be put off by the treble idea.

i still might say i can't call one and wait for aintree but that seems like a cop out since i've watched the racing all season and then can't recommend a chelteham horse! i'm the only jump racing fan of anyone i know so i get asked randomly to come up with something.

 

Sizing Europe - there's nothing like watching the horse you've backed win by five lengths +, regardless of the price. Especially if you're not a big horse person.

 

i'm inclined to sizing europe yes. but if it were a place bet, you could lose money if it came 2nd. although the others in the betting are 4.5/1 or bigger. it would have to be a win bet for that i think and cross fingers. i'd like to see sizing europe win though. in betting i like a nice e/w probably will place 5/1 bets but i might be wrong that's the safest.

 

If your after 1 horse at a decent price, then id go with Noble Prince in the Ryanair. He's been running over 2 miles all season which isn't his trip, but when he was upped to 2m5 in the Jewson last season he came up the hill like an express train, and I can see the exact same thing happening again in this years Ryanair. He's around 6/1 so not a bad price for a course and distance winner, who's open to improvement

 

I would suggest they back the horse which has a name like one of their relatives/dogs.

 

Wierd Al EW in the Gold Cup - he will enjoy the race, the commentator and the crowd get extremely excited and hopefully should get a run for his money in a race where the fav and 2nd fav are there to be shot at

 

Avoid combination bets and avoid Sprinter Sacre.

Sizing Europe in the Champion Chase and Boston Bob in the Albert Bartlett look to have the easiest races.

If you are looking for some each way value Agent Archie in the Supreme Novices and Mon More in the Gold Cup could be ones to follow.

 

what's the advantage of weird al over burton port? i'd probably pick weird al but as far as i recall he didn't do very well in the last gold cup or had an injury? burton port was in the RSA i think.

i'm avoiding SS meself! i reckon it's between sizing europe and one in the gold cup. i'll check the sizing europe card..

 

I would go for Sizing Europe in the Champion Chase, on the nose.

also Divers (8/1) in the Festival Plate.

I wouldn't put anyone off Al Ferof or Bob's Worth

 

Sizing Europe for a win, and Binocular for a place.

 

i've suggested she splits her stake and puts half on sizing europe to win and the other half on either (not decided which yet) weird al or burton port in the gold cup each way. i've just got to decide that last bit.

epona binocular would have been a good one, but by the time she gets my email tomorrow afternoon the race will be over. that's my fault, only looking at the cards the night before.

it's a nightmare trying to do this at work as well, all the racing sites keep crashing and i'm massively busy doing worky work.

thanks for all the helpful posts.

 

8 of the last 9 champion chasers who have returned to defend there crown have been beaten, the only winner was Master Minded.

I still feel SE will win, but that is a worrying stat

 

If you want one at a price I would say Hibbassat in the Triumph on Friday. Other wise I'd say Boston Bob or Bobs worth. This is all presupposing you're not really up for backing Hurricane Fly or Sizing Europe due to price of course.

 

i have suggested sizing europe, that's the win bet. i'm now deciding between weird al and burton port for the place bet. burton port [henderson/geraghty] has raced a lot more and over 24-27f, placing in all the last 8 races [1st/2nd] at 24f and above, 2nd behind long run in feb. weird al [mccain/maguire] is 8, PU, 1, and 3rd behind kauto star in november and hasn't raced since.

 

Good luck Petito. You'll either be a hero or a plonker. No pressure.

 

i've had a cunning idea - i'll do a summary on each and she can decide herself! just hope sizing rescues me a bit.