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Do the Maths

Discussion in 'Portsmouth' started by Leading Fish in Hants, Mar 6, 2012.

  1. Leading Fish in Hants

    Leading Fish in Hants Active Member

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    Trevor Birch has said that our wage bill was about £12.5M per annum under the CSI/Lampitt regime, and will reduce to about £6.5M next season. If we pay a squad of 20 players an average wage of £10,000 per week (CSI/Lampitt ‘policy’ endorsed by the FL) player wages alone are £10.4M so, taking account of the wages of the other 500 or so employees, it would seem we did adhere to that policy.

    However, if we now assume an average ticket price of £20, taking account of season tickets, concessions and the demography of the average crowd, then 14,000 gates will only get you to about £6.5M. Even regular gates of 20,000 will only get you to £9.2M. Other income from sponsorship, club shop sales and hospitality packages probably brings in another £2-3M (a complete guess on my part). The TV income share is about £5M so that would provide a total income of around £15M maximum.

    Based on those figures, that wage bill represents 80 to 85% of turnover which is absolutely crazy – the policy was flawed from the start. Even £6.5M per annum is nearly 45% which in our current state is unsustainable. If we did not have a CVA and had the full parachute payments available we would probably still be stretched.

    If we get relegated this year gates will drop, as will, I assume, ticket prices – let’s assume an average of about 10,000 at an average price of £18. That brings in just over £4M. Our TV share and other income will also drop so total income is likely to be about £10M if we are lucky. So pay (£6.5M per annum) would then be about 65% of income.

    We have got to hope that either we stay in the Championship or we can offload most of our squad or renegotiate/terminate player contracts, because by my reckoning a squad of 20 players will need to be on an average of £3,000 per week for this club to operate sustainably in League 1.

    And that is without even considering our toxic debt.

    I’ll stand corrected on any of my assumptions by those more knowledgeable than me but I doubt I am that far out. No wonder no one wants to buy us.

    Still, hope springs eternal and I shall be at Reading tonight.
     
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  2. devonFRATTONiser

    devonFRATTONiser Well-Known Member
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    It's the old devil and deep blue sea scenario LF.

    Save money now by selling = get relegated = less income = sell more players.

    Hold on to as much quality as possible = better chance of staying up = higher costs = greater risk of being liquidated without seeing out the season.


    It's damned if you do and damned if you don't!
     
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  3. 3rd eye

    3rd eye Well-Known Member

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    One question first - isn't there some funding from the Football League to all clubs? Or is that the TV money?

    Secondly, the FL have agreed with leagues 2, 1 and Championship a wages cap - as part of the EUFA Financial Fair Play rules - the Chair of the FL said that League 2 clubs had agreed 55% of turnover, but didn't go on to say how much League 1 and Championship clubs had agreed.
     
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  4. mikecloud1984

    mikecloud1984 Active Member

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    If TB's quote that 70% of the championship clubs are currently running at over 100% of turnover - you would imagine that this rule is very wishy washy for the championship!

    I have said it before and I will say it again - this is a football wide problem. We are just the victim of the first fall out from the "sugar-daddy" withdrawal.

    We are not the first, and we without a doubt will not be the last - once one the "big boys" takes a plummet - maybe someone will stand up and take notice of the dire situation the game is in.

    Want to throw money away instead of burning it? Buy a football club - its a gurentee!
     
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  5. devonFRATTONiser

    devonFRATTONiser Well-Known Member
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    Clearly some kind of ruling regarding wages as a percentage of income would do a lot to stop clubs getting into the mess we're in. The trouble is, even if the Football League made a ruling for all three divisions you can bet your bottom dollar that the Premier League would have nothing to do with it. The result would be the three getting promoted from the Championship would be so far behind, squad quality-wise that they would be almost guaranteed to get relegated after a single season; that or max out their credit cards on trying to stay up. If a team gambles and fails to survive at the top it could lead them to oblivion.
     
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  6. 3rd eye

    3rd eye Well-Known Member

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    At least we know any Premiership club that wants to play in the European champions league has to comply with the EUFA Fair Play Rules - so at least 4-6 of them will have to play by the rules - much good it will do the promoted teams though.
     
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  7. Surlyc

    Surlyc Well-Known Member

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    I would be very interested to know if the £10k figure was net of tax.
     
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  8. 3rd eye

    3rd eye Well-Known Member

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    Like everything else................ we are never going to be given that bit of information. Private limited company - we aren't shareholders so we have no right to know.
     
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  9. Leading Fish in Hants

    Leading Fish in Hants Active Member

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    I have to say I am already resigned to L1 football next season - if we survive. I have always been a glass-half-full person but I daren't drink anything at the moment otherwise the glass will sonn empty!
     
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  10. devonFRATTONiser

    devonFRATTONiser Well-Known Member
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    Like you LF, I've been through hope, denial etc but I'm now in a state of 'acceptance'. If we do stay in the Championship it will be an incredible achievement, but my target is now to (a) have a team next season and (b) for it to be able to hold its own in League One.

    Look at Plymouth Argyle for comparison.

    Two seasons ago they were in the Championship and after 2 consecutive relegations and administration, they are hanging onto their league status by a thread; one of four teams at the bottom of League Two who are separated by a single point!
     
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  11. Leading Fish in Hants

    Leading Fish in Hants Active Member

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    You're right Devon, we could be joining Plymouth in propping up the Football League before we turn the corner but, for me, even that would be better than liquidation and trying to build a new club. I'm too long in the tooth to start afresh!
     
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  12. GosportChristieInTheFrattonShed

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    league one next season, more than probably (well hopefully if you factor in the alternative) but if its anythng like our away support at reading last night im sure we'll still all be having a party.
     
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  13. Leading Fish in Hants

    Leading Fish in Hants Active Member

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    Yes, it was lively there last night - well in the Pompey section anyway. In fact, more lively than on the pitch for much of the game.
     
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  14. Piebacca

    Piebacca Well-Known Member

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    League 1 can be pretty good fun
     
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  15. Channonfodder

    Channonfodder Rebel without a clue.....

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    Particularly if you have Rickie Lambert:)
     
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  16. mikecloud1984

    mikecloud1984 Active Member

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    How much is Futacs on? I know his contract is due to be renewed in the summer - but could he be our "Lambert" in league One? He has certainly shown promise this season, yet lacking in experience......
     
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  17. saintsalive

    saintsalive Member

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    You nevewr had a sugar daddy - you only thought you had
     
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  18. mikecloud1984

    mikecloud1984 Active Member

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    We know that now - when it is too late!
     
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  19. pompeymeowth

    pompeymeowth Prepare for trouble x
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    More of a Sweet and Low Daddy.

    Mostly low.
     
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  20. Wooperts_duck

    Wooperts_duck Well-Known Member
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    BUT, thank God not Rupert Lowe
     
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