nice write up Zen. I was hoping they'd leave balder success in this as 4 year olds do have a good record. may stick my non-runner in the cross country on this instead if I can get the 40s.
I think he has been written off very quickly. His November win remains about the best Juvenile effort on the bare form. A comfortable 3 length beating of Hollow Tree giving 4lbs puts him ahead of both Grumeti and Pearl Swan on their January effort beating the same rival. I'm not saying the form can be taken at face value but nevertheless at 40/1 he is hugely overpriced. I backed him before I did the write up and am strongly considering going in again. I think the case is quite compelling. I like him for the Triumph too (25/1 NRNB) but prefer him for the Supreme for two reasons. One is that he gets an 8lb weight allowance, and secondly he brings different form lines into the race and I don't like any of the others! I'll be most disappointed if Nicholls runs him in the Fred Winter.
To be honest Zen, the Supreme is a minefield. There are a lot of chances there, and I'm not really sure I'd fancy a 4 year old. But if he were to go for the Triumph then he would be very much of interest, as I think I have foolishly discounted him, and I'm not usually one to do that.
That's almost why I like him though. There are reasons why I don't fancy any of the others so him coming from a completely different area and in receipt of 8lbs all round looks appealing. I'm not saying he'll win, just that his chance is far far better than 40/1.
Not wishing to be a killjoy but there's next to no chance Hinterland running in the Supremes, he's 130-1 on the exchanges which tells you everything! Fair does as it's NRNB though it'll be money back so nothing lost! Still can't decide whose going to win this Supremes....What price do we think the favourite will go off? I'd be surprised if anything was less than their current prices now at around the 5 or 6-1 mark.
What's with this bloody Divapour? Still hanging around in the 6 day decs for the Supreme - and the owner is Makfi's owner! 50 on exchanges for the Supreme, 55's for the Neptune. Decent form in France and has won a flat race on good ground.....
NamNed. Very interesting! Unbeaten over hurdles and a good pedigree. Worth keeping an eye on in the next few days.
I really fancied Tetlami and Montbazon In this. Following further research aided by At The Races, NH is v unlucky in this race having not had a winner for some years having had leading chances for the curtain raiser. As such, my hard earned will be on Montbazon
I'm just going off what he's said about Midnight Game NTD. He's also the 2nd highest rated horse in the race.
Dylan Ross. Hugely overpriced for this. Beaten 2 1/2 lengths by Midnight Game on ground that would have suited the latter better. Will improve greatly for good ground, and trainer knows how to win it (won with Go Native). 33/1 looks massive to me and will be an e/w play.
NTD - DR rides Trifolium. Clearly Midnight Game isn't his best chance at the festival as he said on that video clip.
