Supreme looks impossible this year and in the past I have had success following Irish relative outsiders when this is the case - Go Native for example. Would be interested in views on the how the CH trends look for Hurricane Fly and Zarkandar - I suspect the long-term trends very much favour the latter (although you'd think only a mishap could stop HF). GDC - agree it's funny how the first day is often the easiest and there appear to be three bankers this year (SS, HF and the brilliant mare).
Trends are useful as a guide but not to be followed blindly. To be fair though the OP has put some good ones up in years gone by. One trend (not related to race form)that is interesting though is the Paddy Power money back race. I don't recall them being beaten at the festival so surely for punters that is a negative against Sprinter Sacre?
I’m a firm follower of trends and being a keen historian this is no surprise as surely we can only possibly try to gauge the future by first appreciating the past. Crickey, that sounds somewhat profound, don’t it like. I think though that the major benefit of trends are in telling us the horses that WON’T win as opposed to the ones that will. Off the top of my head (and these are the trends rather than my personal opinions) I suppose the most fancied horses that they rule out are – Binocular (Champion Hurdle), Boston Bob (Neptune), Grands Cru (RSA), Riverside Theatre (Ryanair) and most interestingly Long Run and Kauto Star (both CGC).
Some trends are a little bit misleading. I was reading the trends for the RSA chase put forth on the ATR Cheltenham website and one they highlighted is that 6 year olds don't have a great record in the race. As I really like Invictus for the race I was initially disheartened by this but, upon closer inspection, it's fair to say that very few 6 year-olds actually go for the race. This year we have 7 still enetered out of a total of 25 still standing their ground - so 28%. In last years race there was only 1 6YO in the field of 12 (The Giant Bolster, who fell) so 8.3% and the year before just one of the 9 runners was a 6YO (Burton Port, finished 2nd) although of course Long Run ran as a 5YO. Cooldine's race in 2009 had 4 of 15 aged 6 (best placed was Carruthers in 4th), Alberta's Run won from a field of 11 with 1 6YO (Air Force One finished 5th) and only 1 6YO out of a field of 17 faced Denman. The RSA field is dominated by 7 and 8YOs and the winner generally comes from this age group. Star de Mohaison won it as a 5YO in 2006, Florida Pearl as a 6YO in 1998 and Young Hustler, also aged, 6 prevailed in 1993. As relatively few 6YOs run in the RSA I would not be put off by a stat which says 6YOs don't win it very often For me chase experience is more important for this race - you's want at least 3 races completed and Invictus fits that bill nicely, having won 3 of 4 over the bigger obstacles (and lost a shoe in the other).
There are a lot of 'trend-breakers' amongst the favourites for a fair few races so it will be interesting to see how they stand up at this year's Festival. I am not a trend follower myself, but can fully appreciate their usefulness at identifying the right 'type' for a race. But for making a final decision I will always rely on my own analysis.
Oddy - I'm sure the BHA adjusted the allowances recently as well, there was a spate of 5yo winning the Arkle when they received 8lb or 10lb or whatever it was, that allowance was removed and the 5yo can't get near the older horses these days - it used to be that French bred 5yo horses had a massive advantage in the novice chases. This is the thing with trends, they're valid until the make up of the race changes, if you're not aware/familiar with the changes then it can have a disastrous impact on your betting strategy. Similar theme, had Binocular held on in the Supreme I think they would have reviewed the 10lb allowance given to 4yo in that race, they can't penalise/give preference to a horse on breeding but they can on age. Given that most top class 4yo will be Triumph bound and of course we now have the diabolical cheat-up that is the Fred Winter handicap for 4yo, I think there'll be fewer and fewer 4yo attempting this race, but I don't think it would take much for the BHA to change its' conditions....
Without doubt trends should only be used as a guide and one of the best trends writers (Paul Jones) always states always go with your heart when you feel one is right as well as the trends selection They can cut massive fields down to less then 5 and that's a massive assistance.
A big bet lost is usually described as having 'done one's bollocks'. One can, therefore, only assume that one must have bet one's bollocks in the first place.
