It really feels like Cheltenham is just around the corner now, after all, we're already looking at weather forecasts and the ever-increasing possibility of a good ground festival. Perhaps we might even see a bit of 'firm' in the going description at some stage, though the sprinklers should see the f-word off, apart from on the Cross Country course. We're beginning to get a feel for the likely fields now too and with the weights for the handicaps released it's time to unleash the last of our ante-post bets. We can't be too reliant on weather forecasts but I do think we're getting to the stage now where we can forget about backing mudlarks and with that in mind Lie Forrit just misses the cut in the JLT Specialty Chase. He could be very well handicapped considering his superior hurdle rating but he does seem to rely on his ability to go through soft ground and I'd rather back something for the race that handles better conditions. Step forward FRUITY O'ROONEY. Gary Moore's improving handicapper has looked better than ever this season and he loves good ground, finishing second at Ascot on such conditions in November before easily seeing off Midnight Appeal at Kempton over Christmas. Midnight Appeal has franked that form in some style at Ascot since and it makes me think Fruity O'Rooney remains a horse on a decent mark. He was beaten 10 lengths by Calgary Bay at Doncaster last time but there was some cut in the ground that day and Jamie Moore lost his irons late on. Taking those factors into account he could yet play a prominent role at Cheltenham off a weight of 10st-6lb and we'll take a bit of the 33/1. Keeping with the good-ground theme I have to have a nibble at the 40/1 available about Jonjo O'Neill's GILBARRY in the Byrne Group Plate. This horse has struggled all season either over the wrong trip or the wrong ground but he's been rested since January, he goes well fresh and loves spring ground. He won a Grade Two novices' chase at Ayr last April by 16 lengths where he hammered some talented rivals and after his antics this season the handicapper has given him a chance. Off a mark of 137 he carries 10st3lb in the Byrne Group Plate and there's every chance O'Neill could further alleviate his burden with a talented claimer such as Maurice Linehan. He's badly out of form and could run a stinker - if he lines up - but if he does get to the race surely the positives will see his price tumble from 40/1. The Pertemps Handicap Hurdle looks the ideal contest for Tom George's SIVOLA DE SIVOLA and though he's only 8/1 even now I'd expect him to be much shorter than that on the day. The six-year-old was very impressive when stepped up to three miles at Newbury and George himself was surprised the handicapper only raised him 10lbs for that effort. At least it means he sneaks in right at the bottom for this contest. He ran on Cheltenham Trials Day at the end of January over two miles and his run in fourth behind Module was eyecatching to say the least, he was just getting going at the business end and finished strongly. Three miles is just what he wants, he's got plenty more to offer and off his lightweight he has a serious win chance - take the 8/1. BELLVANO is another horse who might just claw his way into the bottom of the weights in the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase. Nicky Henderson obviously has a squad to pick from in this contest but Bellvano might just be peaking at the right time following a confidence-booster on his latest start. He's a novice chaser who will need kidding into the contest but the cut and thrust of this race might just suit, he'll certainly get plenty of cover, and after just five starts over fences he's plenty more to offer. 16/1 about his chances seems fair enough. Finally, Brian Ellison's RED INCA is worth a bet at 20/1 in the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle. He did well to lose his maiden tag when beating Monte Cavallo on his third start over hurdles and the pair were 20 lengths clear of the rest. It doesn't look a bad piece of form, Ellison is a trainer who knows how to win a handicap hurdle and from the foot of the weights he shouldn't be a 20/1 chance. THE INSIDER'S CHELTENHAM PORTFOLIO: 1pt e.w MEDERMIT @20/1 for Ryanair Chase 4pts win PEDDLERS CROSS @5/1 for Arkle 2pts win FOR NON STOP @14/1 for Jewson 1pt win MONKSLAND @16/1 for Neptune 1pt win SEA OF THUNDER @16/1 for Albert Bartlett 1pt win HOLLOW TREE @25/1 for Triumph 0.5pts e.w MOSSLEY @33/1 for RSA 1pt win CASH AND GO @16/1 for Supreme 1pt win ROYAL GUARDSMAN @14/1 for Champion Bumper 0.5pts e.w FRUITY O'ROONEY @33/1 for JLT Specialty 0.5pts e.w GILBARRY @40/1 for Byrne Group Plate 3pts win SIVOLA DE SIVOLA @8/1 for Pertemps Final 1pt win BELLVANO @16/1 for Grand Annual 1pt win RED INCA @20/1 for Fred Winter 0.5pts e.w For Non Stop @25/1 (NR) for Arkle 1pt e.w Quito De La Roque @33/1 (NR) for Gold Cup 1pt e.w Unaccompanied @14/1 (NR) for Champion Hurdle
NICHOLLS'S FESTIVAL HANDICAP CHANCES A Cheltenham Festival contender still to be seen in public in Britain created an unexpected stir in the betting markets on Wednesday, but Paul Nicholls was doing his best here to dampen down suggestions of a plot similar to that landed by Sanctuaire in the Fred Winter Hurdle two years ago. The champion trainer, attending an event at Cheltenham to mark the publication of the weights for the Festival's 11 handicap races, has a relatively streamlined team for those events when compared to the massed batallions of championship challenger Nicky Henderson, but still holds multiple options in every race bar the cross-country chase. Attracting most attention among them was Ulck Du Lin, an entry in the Fred Winter Hurdle handed 10st 5lb on the basis of his French handicap rating. The British Horseracing Board's chief handicapper, Phil Smith, suggested that this would make him the first horse to run in the race without having ever competed in Britain. Seizing the moment, Betfred cut the horse's odds from 20-1 to 14-1 but Nicholls insisted: "He's worked nicely, he had a racecourse gallop last week but to be perfectly honest with you, I thought there's no point running him because if he does win, he'll be 140. I honestly wouldn't have a clue. "He goes really, really well at home and they all like him but when you see him, he's a chaser, a big, strong scopey horse. He could have a good mark, he might not, I wouldn't know. We're going to get him well but no one knows. He's just one of those who could be really interesting." Nicholls may deny that Ulck Du Lin's presence in the line-up is the result of a carefully hatched conspiracy, but his comments did seem to presuppose that the horse would have won had he lined up anywhere of late and the effortless nine-length victory of Sanctuaire remains fresh in the mind. "Sanctuaire had run twice in France and I needed to run him again and qualify him so it's not the same situation," Nicholls continued. "He beat Grands Crus at Taunton and still got 130. That was before Grand Crus had done anything." Hinterland, at one time officially rated the number one juvenile hurdler in training, is likely to carry top weight in the Fred Winter with Baby Mix, Hisaabaat, Ut De Sivola and Ranjaan all considered likely runners in the Triumph. Another former Fred Winter winner, Crack Away Jack, is also set to represent Nicholls in the Byrne Plate. "He ran nicely over hurdles the other day and I think he could be on the way back," said the trainer. "Sonofvic's going to run in the Pertemps Final, that's always been the plan since he jumped moderately at Christmas. He's unbeaten over hurdles, so he could have a chance. Noland was running a really good race at Ascot until he made a mistake two out and he's in good form. I think he'll run in the JLT Specialty Chase. "Toubab is in the Grand Annual. He's got a nice weight if the ground's good. Crictoniq could be my best hope in the novice handicap. He's been kept back for this since he finished second on his debut for me at Plumpton in January." Jonjo O'Neill, also present for the lunch, said he would have "eight to 10" runners in the handicaps, but was reluctant to enter into much discussion on the finer points of his plans. That was, perhaps, a conversation he planned to reserve for the next time he talks to patron JP McManus. Meanwhile, punters hoping for expansion in the numbers of bookmakers prepared to offer betting on the Festival contests on a more advantageous 'non-runner, no bet' basis may have to keep waiting. Although Bet365 made the concession last weekend (while at the same time judiciously trimming the odds on many of the more obvious contenders to be backed on such terms), most of their rivals are likely to wait until the weekend although BetVictor are set to become the second firm to make the offer from Thursday morning. "When you make a concession like that, you have to cut the prices accordingly and we prefer to offer better value for as long as possible," said Coral spokesman David Stevens. "We do recognise that it is popular for some punters, but others prefer to take the bigger prices and the additional risk. In any case, although ante-post betting is an excellent shop window for the Festival, it is far, far outstripped by the money that is taken over the four days of the meeting."
So he's "worked nicely", "goes really, really well at home and they all like him", if he'd have run him he'd have won and been rated 140, but he's not a plot horse. They must think he's on a feasible mark or else what is the point in keeping him back for it. The suggestion is that had he run, he would be rated 140, indicating they think he's 10lbs well in. I doubt he'll make a mockery of his mark like Sanctuaire did but he's as hard to dismiss as his form is to assess.
A very accurate assessment Zen. Totally agree. Nicholls tries to say he never plots or knows if he has a well handicapped horse. He's a smart guy- he knows. I'm looking forward to the handicaps. I'm going to play them on the day as fun bets, alongside the big races that we've had countless discussion on. Rolling round fast now!
A horse I like an awful lot for the Triumph hurdle is Shadow Catcher and I have taken some 15.5 on Betfair. I ought to have taken a better price long, long ago. Finally on board though, and I think we have yet to see the best of Gordon Elliot's horse, who has travelled very strongly and will really appreciate an end to end flat out gallop.
Shadow Catcher is definately an interesting contender in a race that quite frankly looks wide open. Gordon Elliot likes him a lot. I took some of the 20's on offer last week and I can see him gradually shortening. He got some positive mentions in Paul Jones 2012 guide.
hint from the same guide, quezac de la roque for the x country. close up 5th last year, got a pull with some, was wondering if he'd be aimed at it bit now laddies go 25-1 nrnb that'll do me.
Here's one for you Oddy . . . Alan King: "Many have suggested Bobs Worth will reverse from with Invictus, I'd be surprised if he does."
Completely agree with him as well Zen. Think Invictus is definitely worth a squeak in the RSA even if Grands Crus goes in this race. I will be taking on the short favourites in the novice events as shocks always happen and if all of them were as much of a certainty as we think, the bookies might as well not turn up.
Good man. I can watch replays of Invictus all day (well except the Cheltnham race where he lost the shoe - he was clearly never travelling with the same zest that day and came back very sore). His win at Plumpton and then the Reynoldstown were, for me, wonderful examples of how to jump a fence - he never touches a twig and travels supremely well. I don't believe Choc used the whip at Ascot, just pushed him through hands and heels. Very excited about this horse
Fists Of Fury out of Cheltenham with a tendon injury in other news McCoy has been booked to ride DIVERS in the Byrne Group Plate
Beef: I am all for everyone having a great time at the festival mate, even the 'micks' Has McCain's bottle gone or is he being realistic with Peddlers by contemplaying the Jewson? Interesting thoughts
Ste: Nowt against decent Irish people in the slightest mate and the lads at the festival and racing world wide are great and knowledgable folk sadly the same cannot be said for a few of the Irish (not all I hasten to add) on this and other forums The craic at Chelts is outstanding, how some of the guinness swillers manage to get back to their hotels is beyond me
I think probably a little from column A and a little from column B. If PC does line up in the Jewson he probably goes off a short priced favourite and stands an excellent chance of winning. I also think hes starting to buy into the SS hype and if so many respected judges say he is unbeatable and a bit of a freak, then maybe its true and PC has no chance of beating him. I hope he sticks to the plan and goes Arkle but the vibes don't look good.
True Gary,you do get a few prats around some of the boards all right but best ignore them although when their pissed out of their mind at the festivel that easier said than done-Any big outsiders you think can go well this year?
One i do like the look of is with the rogue Ferdy The Hollinwell Also very strong on Weird Al EW for the Gold Cup, fingers crossed!! Also looking out for the Venetia Williams plot horse
