No idea. As a guide I made £150 (roughly) on Al Ferof last year with zero risk. There could be half the number of runners this year but it will depend on who turns up and so on. I'll be waiting until I know what sort of field will turn up before taking advantage, but I will be taking advantage.
The Arkle really is looking like a no bet market to me and I'm actually there on the Tuesday! This year if you don't fancy Sprinter Sacre (and as much as I have him down as the most likely winner I don't have him as an 11/10 shot round this track and against this field) then where do you go. The 3/1 about Peddlers Cross hardly screams 'back me' likewise the 5s about Al Ferof. Cue Card is probably a fair price at 9s. Some might fancy Menorah too I guess. I don't whatsoever and I think 11s and 12s looks skinny. I know there were more horses lining up in the supreme last year but as a market it much more attractive. Cue Card was the heavy favourite at 7/4 and then it was 5/1 2nd fav and every other runner was a double figured price. I know books have to add up and whatnot but the Arkle market does seem a little skinny to me at this stage for whatever reason.
Zen...can you please let me know how you managed to make that much from Al ferof last year risk free? i understand there are ways to guarantee a profit but i cant imagine you making that much if you backed every horse in the race? With only a likelyhood of about 8 runners this year, i should imagine there will be a nice profit being able to make again?
55 on peddlers @ 11/4 returns 206.25 , 20 on al ferof @ 5/1 returns 120 , 10 on menorah @ 11/1 returns 120 , 15 on cue card @ 8/1 returns 135. If one of the above 4 win Minimum profit = £20 If Sprinter wins money back. Can anyone see anything outside of them five winning before i place that bet, i can't even see CC or Menorah having a chance but just gunna do them for cover
Last year there were 15 runners in the Supreme and the bets I placed were as follows: Cue Card - Nothing but all my money back up to £200 should he win. Spirit Son - £40 at 5/1 (Profit of £40) Al Ferof - £38.91 at 8/1 (Profit of £150.2) Zaidpour - £29.00 at 8/1 (Profit of £61) Recession Proof - £22.27 at 8/1 (Profit of 43p) Sprinter Sacre - £20 at 9/1 (No profit/loss) Hidden Universe - £11.73 at 16/1 (Loss of 59p) Gibb River - £9.53 at 20/1 (Profit of 13p) Marsh Warbler - £9.53 at 20/1 (Profit of 13p) Magens Star - £9.53 at 20/1 (Profit of 13p) Dunraven Storm - £7.70 at 25/1 (Profit of 20p) Spanish Treasure - £3.92 at 50/1 (Loss of 8p) Rathlin - £3.92 at 50/1 (Loss of 8p) Far Away So Close - £1.98 at 100/1 (Loss of 2p) Sheer Genius - £1.98 at 100/1 (Loss of 2p) Total Stake - £200.00 The above shows how I manipulated the market to make either nothing (or a minuscule loss in some cases) or a profit depending on whether I fancied the horse or not, Al Ferof being my biggest winner by far. I expect to do a similar thing this year except I will focus all my winnings on Peddlers Cross, and might be braver and completely discount others, because I think he is the only one who might be able to beat the favourite. Hope that helps and at least shows you the theory.
Great stuff Zen! Defo make sure you put it up here when you have worked it out as Peddlers C is the best option for me to take on SS.
Zen I take it your waiting for final decs?? I will prbly do the same as you this year. Seems like a good strategy!
Paddy Power you REALLY could have got massive interest in this offer if you'd have focused on the feature race and the feature horse of the first day but you bottled it...Paddy Power running SCARED of the Hurricane
Was gunna have a nice lump on that anyway mate, i've already done about 100 accumalators lol i've basically permed all of the following in all types of bets/stakes - Long Run/Kauto/ Burton Point/Captain Chris, Sizing Europe/Finians Rainbow/Big Zeb, Big Bucks/Oscar Whiskey ,Quevega, Hurricane fly/Zarkander/Binocular, Peddlers/Sprinter Sacre/Al Ferof plus a few with bumper horses
I will be waiting for final declarations yes. I'm very happy to put up what I do should people be interested in following suit.
I did a very similar manouver last year Zen, but had the vast majority of the profit on Spirit Son who I fancied for the race - was gutted to only take £15 off them, but it's an easy system to put together - I imagine I'll do something similar this year. Probably dutch Al Ferof and Peddlers.
All of this is very clever but what happened to trying to pick winners? You may as well just stick it all in an ISA for the excitement it generates.
I am still 'picking a winner' except in this case if I am wrong I don't lose anything. Simple and you would be foolish not to take advantage.
Think I'd prefer to be a bit foolish and have a bit more excitement, Zenyatta. Are you an actuary, by the way? If not I'd suggest you go down that road. They earn a fortune at our place for doing very little.
I dont blame anyone for doing what Zenyatta is doing. I have 3 paddy power accounts and have done it the last few years. So I may aswell save some of my Sprinter Sacre stake, by backing a few of the others. Even though I think the favourites a banker, I've been following racing long enough, to know horses can fall, they can pick up Injury's and they can refuse to race
