Just done a little 50 cent e/w Lucky 15 on my 4 bigger priced fancies on day 1: Tetlami @ 14/1 Supreme Novice Al Ferof @ 11/2 Arkle Hold On Julio @ 6/1 JLT Handicap Chase Bless The Wings @ 10/1 Centenary Novices Chase Pays just short of 6 grand if they all win, €145 if they all place. Worth €15 of anyone's money
The online bookie I use (www.racebets.com) was offering a nice price of 34/1 for Alan King to be top trainer at the festival so I've taken a bit of that. I see several of his horses with potentially very decent chances at the festival: Montbazon - Supreme (although not for me) Hold On Julio - JLT Handicap Bless The Wings - Centenary Novices Chase Invictus - RSA Grumeti - Triumph Medermit - Ryanair Batonnier - Neptune or maybe Coral Cup ?? Vendor - somewhere?? Kumbeshwar - one of the chase handicaps ?? Midnight Appeal - Fulke Walwayn / Kim Muir ?? Lovcen - one of the handicap hurdles ?? Win only bet so will probably need 4 or 5 of these to win but I think that is entirely feasible
Hendersons Cheltenham Team Lyvius Lyvius went to Kelso and won and now he goes to Newbury where we will find out if he is good enough for the JCB Triumph Hurdle. I like him but in fairness we have been a bit short on juveniles this season and it looks as if Alan King has got them all! Simonsig You are all going to say where is Simonsig going and he worked very well on Tuesday morning. I had a long chat with his owner Ronnie Bartlett - Barry Geraghty is coming down to school him on Friday and then work on Saturday so we will try and make a decision which race he goes for at the Festival after that. Ronnie was flicking from the Supreme Novices' to the Neptune Investment and at two in the morning I am going two miles and at four I am going two and a half. It is nothing to do with the opposition it is simply what is his trip? It is hard to get away from the pace and speed he has shown as he is a hugely talented horse. He is very, very well and worked great on Tuesday. He had to sit in behind two horses at Kelso as he has that speed to go past anything and would win on the Flat. You can't believe he won't stay though as he won a point-to-point and his bumper was over 2m2f. He just has so much speed for a horse that does stay. Bobs Worth He is doing alright and he goes for the RSA Chase. Take Grands Crus out and it is very open . Amazingly, he looks ten times better than he did before the Reynoldstown. Yogi Breisner will be down next Wednesday for his usual Long Run session and we want him to have a look at this horse as he jumped out to the left at Ascot. He should be better suited going left-handed at Cheltenham and he won around the track last year. The breathing operation he had knocked him back a little bit and if you had seen him three weeks before the Reynoldstown I didn't think I was going to get anywhere with him. He looks great now. Darlan He has done great as that was a horrible fall at Newbury. He schooled on Friday and you would not know anything has happened. So for a five-year-old to come out and just put that fall in the back of his mind, and do what he does naturally, was really admirable. I don't know what would have happened at Newbury but AP (McCoy) said at some point in the race that he is a Supreme Novices' horse and that is the race he goes for. He has not worked with Simonsig and you would just not do that as they are two completely different horses. Darlan is a good horse at home but Simonsig is exceptional and if you tried to find out here what is going to happen at Cheltenham at home you would not have a runner as you would ruin every horse in the yard. Darlan is a lovely horse and will better in a year's time. Long Run He is in good form and has come out of Newbury well. He did is first little piece of work on Tuesday and will have one session with Yogi Breisner next week and will not see a fence between now and then. He will wear earplugs in the paddock but not in the Gold Cup - that was what we did at Newbury in the Betfair Denman Chase. It will just take the parade out of the equation and then he will have a rush of adrenalin. I don't think there is any doubt that this is a different Kauto Star than we were playing with last year and we were two-love up after that. It is now two-two so it is going to be a very interesting battle so let's hope it is another great race like last year. It is building up like that again and there is a lot to play for - there is not much between them but I do believe Kauto has to be a better horse this season. Everyone was baying for his retirement last year and the only thing I can say is a I wish Paul (Nicholls) had listened and life would be a lot easier! We were only just behind him at Kempton and if he had really winged the last then that could have got it down to a length, so we are not that far apart. We started the year at Haydock behind Kauto Star where Ruby (Walsh) injected this huge burst of speed down the back straight where the turbo kicked in and then did the same thing at Kempton. I don't know if he will do that at Cheltenham but it is a different track to be doing it on as in a Gold Cup you tend to wind up the pace. If he is going to head for home a long way out then he has another two and half furlongs to go up a hill and that may be harder for Kauto Star and easier for Long Run. Sam Waley-Cohen and Long Run get on really well together and I always will have total confidence in the horse and Sam riding him. They got into a nice rhythm at Newbury and really looked good but you did not have Kauto hammering that pace on. I would just like a good honest gallop, let Sam get into a nice rhythm and have a nice time - if he enjoys it, the horse will enjoy it and so will I. Finian's Rainbow He has been very different this year as his whole life last season was gung-ho. It was get out and beat them up and that was what happened at Cheltenham when he tried to make all in the Arkle so I was trying to avoid that. He has been very relaxed in his races and has been going the right way all season. His win at Kempton was in a funny sort of race while he looked to have come and won at Ascot against Somersby. We can learn from that, he will come on for it and he is in good form. Oscar Whisky A lot of people ask whether I wish he was still in the Champion Hurdle and I say no. Owner Dai (Walters) and I have talked about it long enough and said we always wanted to take a look at three miles as he stays two and a half so well. So we are going to try the impossible and take on Big Buck's, who will be very hard to beat but Oscar Whisky is in great form. We will see what happens but he will go over fences next year. We have got to find out what his trip is and it is quite unusual to go into a race like the World Hurdle untried over the distance. The only other way to do it was to test Big Buck's before this and have taken him on at Cheltenham but we went the two and a half mile route. I have always said I wish there was a Ryanair Hurdle as that would be very handy. I don't know what the chances of beating Big Buck's are. I think we have a great chance of being there at the last to have a fight with him. Big Buck's will tough it out and will be very hard to get by but this horse will have some speed if he has got the stamina. He would have as good a chance as any horse that has taken him on Big Buck's for a while. If you compare Punchestowns with Oscar Whisky then I think we have got a chance at Cheltenham. Burton Port He has been in really good form all year and ran a great race behind Long Run in the Denman Chase at Newbury. He was getting 10lbs so he has got to improve - but there is improvement and we have got to pray for no dreaded bounce. Nobody can explain it or tell me why it happens and Burton Port must be the horse you'd worry about it for at Cheltenham. But he looks fantastic and always does but is not a flash horse. He had all that time off and this year his work in the lead-up to Newbury was much superior to anything in the build up to his whole novice chase campaign. I don't know why, he just seems to have improved at home and that was a very good run at Newbury. So it is the Gold Cup that is his number one priority and where we are going God willing. He looks tremendous. Binocular He is in very good form. We were going to Newbury for a gallop as I thought he might need it but we ended up going to Wincanton for the Kingwell Hurdle and ended up looking like he didn't need any of it! He certainly won't be having any more gallops and we don't need to do too much more with him. He looks slick and happy and enjoyed that the other day at Wincanton but you still have a problem beating Hurricane Fly. I thought we would be going into the Champion Hurdle with three runners along with Spirit Son and Grandouet but it shows how fickle this game is. So we are down to one but with what we saw at Wincanton maybe one will do. I know he is not everyone's favourite but I love him and he is pretty unlucky not to have had a higher Cheltenham profile as I thought he may have won three Champion Hurdles by now. But life has not been easy for him - or me - and consequently he deserves to have a right shot at it this year. If Wincanton is anything to go by, then he is coming into the Festival in real good shape.
Sprinter Sacre Everyone has their views on him but he is the most lovely horse. Some say he won't come up the hill and Colin Tizzard says Cue Card will go too fast for him so we will just do our own thing - they can go as fast as they like! There are two reasons why we think he will come up the hill - firstly he is must stronger horse this season than last, and secondly AP McCoy said after the Supreme Novices' Hurdle that he ought to have his wind done. He is great to watch over his fences and we just have to hope we can keep it as accurate and spectacular as he has been. Cheltenham is more testing than Doncaster, Kempton and Newbury but I don't think that ought to worry him. He has beaten Peddlers Cross but I am inclined to go along with Donald (McCain) who believes he was not right as we sailed past him at the first fence and that was that. The race told us nothing. But what has been amazing in all his three runs this season are the times as they have been staggering. It was a course record at Newbury while on both days at Kempton and Doncaster, when races were being run in 20 seconds over standard, he was going around in levels - and on his own and not coming off the bridle. He seems to get around pretty quickly and I am not sure how many horses can go as fast as that. His jumping is his biggest weapon and I felt sorry for French Opera at Newbury last time. He was going along merrily in front at Newbury then this great big black aeroplane came sailing past him down the back straight and that was that. He will make three lengths at each fence. Riverside Theatre He is not a huge heavy horse so he was probably pretty fit ahead of his comeback win in the Ascot Chase. You would like to think there is a bit of improvement in him. He goes to the Ryanair and we are in exactly the same place as we were last year as he had won at Ascot. Some people think he does not like Cheltenham but I hope they are wrong - it is only because he ran in the Arkle and got completely outpaced. He is a lot sharper now. This day last year he was exactly where he is now - in great form - but then suffered a non-displaced stress fracture of the pelvis. He was out of training for six months but I would be extremely disappointed if he bounced although we have been mindful about what we have done with him since Ascot, which is not a lot. I have never been tempted to try the Gold Cup route with him despite a second in the King George. As you saw at Ascot, he is pretty sharp and the Ryanair is where he belongs although we would like to come back to the King George in December
I saw that Wooly and there was no mention of Tetlami anywhere. I reckon they know they've got a good 'un there and are doing everything to keep it under the radar screen
Hopefully am already on him 16's will prbly take some on the day too Really rate him and is the only one to me atm who stands out in the supreme!
Irish Challengers Day 1 reland recorded a haul of thirteen winners over the course of last year's Festival and, in the first of a four part series, Timeform's Irish team assess the chances of some of their leading hopes on day 1 of the 2012 Cheltenham Festival... The ante-post markets suggest that Tuesday will be Ireland's most profitable day in terms of winners, with three of the seven favourites hailing from the Emerald Isle.Steps To Freedom and Galileo's Choice are currently vying for favouritism in the Supreme Novice's Hurdle and the latter looks the pick of the runners for the curtain raiser. Galileo's Choice has made a very good impression in his three starts over hurdles and warmed up for a crack at this Grade 1 with an easy win over Becauseicouldntsee at Fairyhouse last time. A Grade 3 winner on the Flat, he remains open to improvement over hurdles, and his jumping so far has given very little cause for concern. Steps To Freedom was last seen winning a Grade 2 novice over C&D in November, narrowly beating Prospect Wells with Ericht further back in third. That form doesn't look as strong as it did at the time and he looks opposable at his current price of 9.0. The pick of Willie Mullins' entries looks to be Midnight Game, who beat Dylan Ross at Naas last month by two and a quarter lengths and could go better on good ground. He has looked a graded-class performer in the making, but he isn't open to as much improvement as some, and his tendency to get worked up in the preliminaries is a negative for such a showpiece event. It's very hard to envisage an Irish trained winner of the Arkle. Drinmore winner Bog Warrior looks a doubtful runner at this stage (currently available at 85.0 on Betfair) and neither Blackstairmountain or Call The Police look good enough to trouble the likes of Sprinter Sacre and Peddlers Cross. Reigning Champion Hurdler - Hurricane Fly - is the first of two Willie Mullins-trained bankers on day one and he emphatically put to bed any doubts about his well-being in the Irish version at Leopardstown on his return from an absence, effortlessly beating the high-class Oscars Well by over six lengths. He looks as near to a certainty to retain his crown as it's possible to be at this stage and it would be folly to back against him in the opening day showpiece. Quevega has been the standout performer in the mare's division for some years now, already a triple winner of the David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle, and she has outstanding claims of making it four successive wins in the closing race of the day. Her absence since beating Mourad in the World Series Hurdle at Punchestown in May is of no concern given her record fresh and her nearest rival - Voler La Vedette - may well go for the World Hurdle. It will be one of the shocks of the Festival were she to get turned over at odds of 1.65.
Interesting stuff from Nicky Henderson. STILL not ruling out the Supreme with Simonsig, what a nightmare for punters. Darlan will be a very interesting horse next season, I fancy the Cheltenham hill might be a little too much this spring. Simonsig is their number one hope and it seems they are simply unsure about which one will suit him the best. He seemed very impressed with Burton Port and it was hard not to be with his comeback run. But Long Run has his number and will improve himself, providing he jumps accurately. He thinks Sprinter Sacre could take 3 lengths out of them at every fence, and ultimately that is what has happened so far. They'll just restrain him early behind the pace and I think Barry will let him go a mile out and he'll try to jump them all out of contention. If he settles and makes no early mistakes it is hard to see him not winning. Peddlers will stay stronger than anyone but he might not have the accelleration needed to stay with Sprinter Sacre after each fence. Cue Card is ironically the one with the speed to have a good go, but his jumping has not been great, and unseated at Cheltenham earlier in the year. Menorah has travelled menacingly every time he has raced over fences but he just doesn't seem to find a jumping rhythm. His jockey has hardly helped things either. Think Zarkandar is the horse to challenge the Fly, but only if they go a proper gallop. The quicker the better for Zarkandar. But sadly for him the same applies to the Hurricane. Zarkandar can outstay Binocular on the run in though granted a ferocious pace.
No mention of Al Ferof there Toppy - if Sprinter Sacre flags up the Cheltenham hill then he'll be in the mix to pick up the pieces...
Love him to bits and he will be a great chaser to follow over the next 2 years, but not at this distance for me Wait till he sees 3 miles, lovely rhythm and generally good jumper. I didnt back him last year and it frightens me to not back him this year given his obvious love of Cheltenham and his stamina up the hill. But he might be outpaced long before the business end and he will need ride of the season (AGAIN!) to win this time. Will be coming home best of all, but too late in the day for my money. But as I say, he's going places next year. Ruby Walsh after Ascot: "What a ride he is going to be be in a King George next year"
I still think, and hope, that Simonsig will go for the Neptune. That was obviously the plan (as he said when I was there) but the speed the horse shows is making it a tricky decision. I think there is a chance that the Supreme might be a big field and a roughish race. I'd rather see him in the Neptune I think, and that having been a strong advocate of the Supreme idea for quite some time. Althought they say the decision will be made to suit him, you can't help but think that their others will have an impact. At the moment they have both Darlan and Tetlami for the Supreme, and just Molotof as another Neptune contender. If there is that much doubt about it then I should think sticking to the original idea, and spreading their butter evenly is the best (and most likely) policy. However, there can be no doubt that he is their No 1 novice hurdler though. I would be quite certain of that.
That's what I'm hoping. He's blue in places for the Neptune still, despite being very well backed for the race for the best part of a week now. There are Supreme rumours with all the talk of his speed but I reckon Nicky is saying this to the cameras and his Secretary is in the Office lumping it on!
Thanks for putting up the stable tours info Woolcombe-Folly007, interesting stuff Crikey Monsieur Henderson has some horses going to the Festival! I know Mullins has two bankers in Quevega and the Hurricane but Henderson seems to at least have one horse in the top 3 or 4 of every race there is! Speaking of trainers is this the Festival where Nicholls draws a blank? Not likely granted but his hand is unquestionably weaker than I can recall for some years plus the stable form isn't redhot either...
