Nam: My mate said exactly the same and has taken 25s about him EW without LR and Kauto, surely IF he runs he will take the beating out of the 5
Namned - I think he's one of half a dozen who could spring a surprise so you'll have worse 66/1 bets in your life. Gaz - I get what your saying about the 'without front 2' market but I really cannot have Kauto and Long Run is not the most solid 2/1 fav ever, a Quevega/Big Bucks double at 2/1 makes tons more appeal than backing Long Run to me, so with those doubts take advantage of the proper price or play both. I've seen it so many times where someone fancies a rag and bets without the fav and their selection wins, be brave, anything can happen at Cheltenham, 50/1 and 66/1 winners do happen.....
Just so many question marks over the first two in the betting for me, sort of forces you to look elsewhere! I think he'd have to run the race of a lifetime to win - that said I'm sure he could run to a mark in the high 160's, that might be enough with Kauto now 12, and Long Run seeming not running to anywhere near his current mark! Got a sneaky feeling that Hendo and his team are pretty coy about Long Run and this would be "his race" for this season, whereas Kauto's was Haydock. Long Run is bound to make a mistake though, and I guess if you back him you have to hope it will early on....
Agree with you that Wierd Al looks a good bet, GDC. Should be staying on with Long Run at the finish. Kauto's comeback has been the highlight of the season but it is a huge ask for him to do it again, especially in the Gold Cup. SWC gave the horse a great ride last year but to my mind he is still the weak link and everything has to go his way. So I have been looking for another horse to come through and Wield Al could be the one. But as ever I'll wait until the day to see how the ground is and which yards are in form. I can see it being a cracking race again.
Gaz - would GMOOH be sure to stay the Coral Cup trip ? I agree he has been extremely unlucky twice at the festival but appeared well beaten at Haydock over 20f earlier this year and his rating is above 150 now makes it tough to win a handicap....
Grizz: The distance wont affect him i don't think, as he has run over further and faded late on, the lad taking 7 off will assist greatly and this one has balls of steel so hopefully Mr McManus will be wheeling in the barrow and having a go Bet to lay without doubt for you lads that enjoy that game
GDC - any word on Divers this year? Up 10lbs I believe from last year! Entries in the Byrne Plate and JLT Chase.
Nam: Have the Preview Night on Fri, will put up a complete review over the week-end. I have a feeling The Hollinwell in Kim Muir could be the one! However Divers loves the place and with Graham Lee injured Keith Mercer will probably take up the reigns!
Divers goes for the Byrne Plate, not the 3m handicap, I think they gave him an entry in that just incase he looked like he was crying out for further but I know the Byrne is the target. Around 12s and a solid bet. Jockey bookings will be done nearer the time, Mercer does look fav but you never know who might become available so pointless confirming now if Ruby suddenly finds himself without a ride in the race...
I believe so Oddy, I can't access rating from the office but would he be sure to get in the race ? He won last week off a very low rating so might need the 'capper to hammer him just to get in this race, I could be wrong...
Can't see past Long Run, was gaining on Kauto all the way to the line in the King George and the front two are miles clear of the rest. Long Run is one of the bets of the meeting for me
I decided that to make money at the festival you need a nice combo or treble. Have done Long Run hurricane and Sizing at 20s for the three. If the fruist 2 come in i'll be ****ting myself on the friday!
I have Hurricane @ 7/4 Big Bucks @ 1/2 & Long Run @ 9/4 Grumetti @ 10/1 Big Bucks @ 4/6 & Long Run @ 5/2 Peddlars @ 6/1 Hurricane @ 7/4 Big Bucks @ 4/7 & Long Run @ 9/4 Hopefully will be ****ing it come Friday
Okay,so you are 2 weeks away from Cheltenham. Your name is David Pipe. You have a grey who made Big Bucks dig deep in the World Hurdle and he is unbeaten in 3 starts over fences. You have a 12 YO 2nd fav in a 3m 2f Gold Cup, a fav who is prone to errors and had to fend off Burton Port LTO., and your novice chaser has the gears and quick jumping to allow him to switch off at tge back. Do you look to run the legs off the Big 2 with a late burst of speed? Or do run in the RSA at slower pace and perhaps find it hard to settle your short price fav?
I'm not sure the extra 2f of the Gold Cup will play to his strengths Toppy .................... but I hope they do send him there because he is the only horse I am worried about beating Invictus in the RSA
I made a lot of money on Bobs Worth last season, really rated him as a staying hurdler and would like to have seen him remain over the smaller obstacles. I've never thought he looked a natural over fences this season and I think he's been beaten fair and square by both Grands Crus and Invictus. I know he was giving Invictus 3lbs but the King horse was value for more that day - he was travelling like the best horse from a long way out and Choc was only hands and heels on him. He eased him in the last 30 yards or so allowing Bobs Worth (who was still vigorously ridden) to close. I can't help feeling that Bobs Worth has a lot of parallels to Punchestowns, who was also a very good staying hurdler but never got it together over fences. Everyone (including Henderson, bookies and punters) seem keen to forgive him his defeats in the hope that "next time he'll show his true running", yet I cannot see him turning the form around with Grands Crus and Invictus. I still think it incredible that Bobs Worth is half the price of Invictus for the RSA.
