Invested a 1pt EW on a Kauto Stone/Quevega double with Sporting Bet. 33/1 is far too big a price about the former with 3 places 1/4 the odds up for grabs now the Champion Chase is his target. Well worth a few quid. All the other bookies are no bigger than 25/1 (many shorter still) so I think is a small oversight on Sporting Bet's behalf.
Going off the current prices as of today... £1 accy will return £12,199.36 Not bad if your brave enough to part with a hard earned pound...!!!
Zen, surely the odds reflect that SE is a good favourite and waiting in the wings if SE isnt on top form is BZ. I see your point that 33s is a standout price but still cant see KS beating either of these so isnt he racing for 3rd place in which case would want more than 4s effectively.
Big Zeb is too old now, he is a class horse but just not with the younger crew, the SE, KS & FR Im not really in to laying horses really! but at 5/1 I would take him on!
I think Finians is most likely to get third behind last year's first two home which I fully expect replicated two weeks on Wednesday. I think KS should go Ryanair as surely the reason he was disappointing the last day was nothing to do with the trip but everything to do with his condition on the day as all Nicholls emptied out quickly with the virus..
I don't think Big Zeb is the same horse this season. I thought his form was a touch on the weak side even before his defeat by Sizing Europe last time. He has questions to answer for me and I certainly don't see him as the EW banker that others do. I would suggest Finians Rainbow is the biggest danger, purely because he might be capable of better. However, he has been beaten both times he has faced a decent pace over fences, and seemed very weak at the finish on both occasions. He could go well but needs to improve massively on what he has shown and I don't think there is any evidence to suggest that is likely. Somersby is '95%' certain to run in the Ryanair. Wishfull Thinking has run 3 shockers from 4 efforts this season. He might bounce back to form but it would seem unlikely. Realt Dubh is more likely for the Ryanair too. You then come to Kauto Stone. I thought he ran a really nice race in the Tingle Creek, looking threatening until making a mistake at the wrong time. He still wasn't disgraced in second. He then ran very free at Ascot, but crucially travelled vey strongly and jumped quickly. He flopped and weakened very quickly but wasn't given a hard race at all. It wouldn't surprise me if he was suffering from the Nicholls cough at the time, despite reports to the contrary. Nevertheless I think his form at Down Royal and at Sandown entitles him to go well in this. It doesn't look the strongest of renewals and there are major question marks for me over many of the principles as outlined above. I see no reason why Kauto Stone should be as big as 33/1 given that this is now his target. I am not expecting him to beat Sizing Europe, who I think is nailed on, but I can certainly see him running into a place. Doubling him with Quevega means that a place returns 10pt profit which will do me nicely. He will certainly start a lot shorter than the 33/1 on the day and think it is a value bet at the price.
From an early look, it looks like the pricewise horse for the neptune maybe Sous Le Cieux there is a sea of blue on his odds
Woolcombe I noticed the same. Sous Les Cieux & Monksland in the Neptune for my money, think they look typical pricewise.
Interesting if Pricewise puts up Sous Les Cieux (Willie Mullins) because that might indicate, though it might not, that Boston Bob is headed for the 3miler. A possibility, but probably nothing more at this stage. No doubt we will know more tomorrow. The one that does seem to be decided is Simonsig for the Neptune. Now favourite with many of the bookies, and on Betfair, and a big drifter for the Supreme. It looks like Nicky has got off the fence, possibly ahead of his Cheltenham Media Day tomorrow. It will be interesting to see whether any plans are confirmed there.
I have been given a couple of tips last week. I haven't had chance to get on here until now since hearing them. I have no idea how reliable they are. My dad is working for an Irish lady and apparently her son works for a stable over there (she didn't say which one). Make what you like of them, I aren't claiming anyone should lump on or anything like that. First is Monksland for the Neptune and the second is Sea of Thunder for the Albert Bartlett. Make of them what you will, I have just had a small double.
I'm pretty sure that Boston Bob's running plans aren't in stone yet. At the moment he could run in the AB or Neptune. My preference is the Neptune because it's the better race and i'd rather see Simonsig and BB battle it out in potentially the highlight of the festival.... that and I stand to win more if he runs in and wins the Neptune... selfish I know! The last I heard from Willie, on ATR I think, was that BB's plans have not been decided.
Batonnier was the pricewise selection, not surprising as he fits many trends and has the very useful course form
some info here regarding the irish contigent heading to Chelts-Realy fancy e/w chances of steps to freedom in the supreme so good to here J Harrington reporting the horse is in good shape. http://www.irishracing.com/cheltenham2012.html
