cheers Zen, nice to get some back up. can only be so big as the win part is considered out of the equation.
For those that haven't backed him, Fists of Fury is strongly fancied for the NH Chase, the 14s is disappearing and he will be single figure prices after the week-end
Gary - the Supreme is DEFINITELY Tetlam's target - never been any talk of him going elsewhere, he's never run beyond 2 miles and Henderson stated categorically after his last win that he goes for the Supreme. Barring injury he'll be there
Oddy: Yer got that, I meant more we all know what Mr Henderson is like He can change plans and move him to Aintree or Punchestown quicker than anyone! Hopefully will get a run for my money, not sure he is up to winning but this race is wide open IMO mate
chaps any of you simonsig backers will be happy to know that boylesports will be refunding all bets if an irish horse wins the supreme
Just when the Simonsig story seemed to be settling down Barry Geraghty goes and throws another spanner in the works in his At The Races Blog: "Simonsig really pleased me over eight flights of hurdles, tucked in behind two others and after that it wouldn’t really worry me which of the novice hurdles he went for at Cheltenham. Very sharp." It must be said, slightly as a result of Fingal Bay but not entirely, I am starting to come round to the idea that the Neptune would be the better target. Can't say that I am overly concerned though, so long as he is there in one or the other. As for Fingal Bay, it sounds very unlikely that he will make the Festival. It appears the only thing stopping them ruling him out is the fact that they have yet to speak to the owners. "His jockey Richard Johnson said: "It's not great news that he's not 100%, but at the same time he's a very exciting horse and it would be silly to run him unless he was right." Hobbs' wife, Sarah, said Fingal Bay is, at this stage, an "unlikely participant" at the Cheltenham Festival. She told Racing UK: "We've had physio on him - it's a hamstring to the back and we're just trying to treat him. "These things usually take about 10 days to two weeks so it's going to be touch and go for Cheltenham. "At this stage he's an unlikely participant really. "The trouble is his owner Roger Skan is abroad at the moment and we haven't been able to get hold of him or his wife so they don't know yet. "Roger doesn't like Aintree, he's had a few horses there go wrong so he might go to Punchestown or maybe something here in the future."
GDC Davy russell picked Fists of Fury for his bet of the festivel so will be getting me some of that!!!
Folks i've been told by a colleague that steps to freedom has been beating oscars wells by up to 10 lenghts in training and is in tip top condition
Ste, I don't want this to come across wrongly, but could you perhaps give a little bit of information as to why that colleague should be believed or trusted, and how he knows? Nicky Henderson is aware of how very highly Jess Harrington rates Steps To Freedom, so I suspect he does go well at home.
Steps To Freedom was the first horse I mentioned for AntePost Supreme betting some months ago, if anyone remembers. I said something along the lines of he was at the top of the pecking order at that time. Since then, the way his form simply hasn't worked out makes me think he'll find one or two too good at Cheltenham. I think he'll put up a career best though because the hustle and bustle pace will play to his strengths. I just suspect there is one horse who might outstay him on the hill.
I couldn't have him personally because his form could hardly have worked out any worse. It wasn't like he beat Prospect Wells (or Ericht) easily either. They were a neck and under 3 lengths behind him. The one redeeming feature to his form was that Prospect Wells had beaten All The Aces convincingly but even that line is looking distinctly average now. I am not saying he can't win but I couldn't back him to do so given the apparent weakness of the form and the long absence. It might have been intentional but I still consider it undesirable for a novice in such a race.
I think Steps to Freedom's form can be looked at from another angle as it wasn't that long ago since he beat Montbazon in a bumper at Aintree and that one still looks like he has a chance. You can also be certain that Steps to Freedom is in the right hands to be tuned up for Cheltenham.
No doubt about it, the Bumper form looks solid enough. However, I am yet to be totally convinced by Montbazon either. I would be more interested in his hurdles form because we know he is a good flat horse (rated 102). I don't think anything he has done over hurdles as yet entitles him to win a Supreme. That is not to say that he isn't capable of producing it on the day. It just takes a leap of faith to think that he can produce a career best (by a little way) after such a long absence. It is possible but would seem unlikely to me. He's the sort you have to take an opinion on and either back him or dismiss him. At the moment I prefer the latter, though I can well understand the argument for the former position too.
As I can make a case for about half a dozen in my head I have come to a conclusion I don't have a clue However, I am starting to lean towards Galileo's Choice and that's largely down to his flat form. This horse won a Grade 3 race over 10f on Irish Champion Stakes day. Of course I know 'flashy' flat form usually gets turned on it's head over timber and the trainers Cheltenham form is pretty ropey so there are plenty of question marks over him, not least his form to date which is pretty moderate considering his opposition. Think I've managed to talk myself out of him too Probably the only thing I am certain of is I'll wait until the day to bet as I can see the prices as big, if not bigger, than they are now such is the open look in the race.
toppy i dont have this info at the first hand and it was passed on by a friend of mine,ive asked him to come back to me with something more solid so hopefully i'll hear something new next week.as you know tips for chelts will be flying around the place so i'm hoping this info is accurate.the supreme is so competative this year it's harder to rule out horses than rule them in,be great to get off to a cracker though wouldnt it!!!
Thats the thing, the Supreme being the first race means it gets so much attention. Everybody is so keen to get off to a flyer. This year it doesn't look easy to say the least!
Cheers Ste As I said it was more me enquiring than trying to doubt you or anything, and yeah I think we would all love to get off to a flyer!
