Bouyed up by last night's results, I just played the BBC predictor game to see if my unbiased forecasting would take us up. Sadly we finished in 7th place on 74 points behind Forest on 77 who were 6th. Surprisingly Leeds took over 2nd spot. If QPR were to be docked 10 points they would drop from 1st to 4th and Cardiff would get the 2nd automatic spot. None of the top six dropped out. Burnley and Leicester shared 74 points with us with Reading and Hull not far behind. Bottom was quite clear with Sheffield U, Scunthorpe and Preston - in that order - going down Palace were still 4th bottom but six points clear of the drop Good thing though is that on these predictions you can't really pick a team to have a bad run without deliberately distorting the league positions so it would only take a poor run from one of the top 5 ( exceoting QPR who we will not catch) and we could be in with a real chance. A short while ago I thought that it would be best for us not to get in the top 6 this year as we are not set up for promotion and another year will benefit us well. However someone pointed out and Ihave to agree that a play off finish with a trip to Wembley even if we lost would be great fun and bring in a pound or two. Here's hoping COME ON YOU HORNS
I did it yesterday before the game and we ended up up 8th with 68 points and a bit of a gap to 6th..... but i didnt factor in an away win. I have to agree just a couple of against the form results and we could be in there. I think Leeds will have a couple of blips but they will not be the team to catch. I think Forest are catchable and cardiff are dipping. http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/D1/oform.html Bottom three... I cant see any change there....
Suspect we'll need around 18 points from 27 to have a sniff. We will likely need to win at least 6 out of the last 9 but a win at this stage is far more valuable than a draw so Malky may throw cuation to the wind and go all out in each game. 6 wins 3 defeats may be enough, 4 wins 5 draws and no defeats may not.
Apparently 70 points have been good enough for 6th in 2 of the last 3 seasons..the average over the last 10 seasons is 73.3 points. So..if we get 74, as you predict Leonardo...we could be there! How exciting is this
Blimey Leo you have positively lived on here today ddone the predictor and .....great minds think alike 7th with 74 points!
Hello Leonardo and all, sorry didn't say hello with my first post. Very amiss. Yes I was/am on 606 and post periodically. Have to say this forum is shaping up quite nicely.
The only thing predictable about predictions is that some of the time you'll be right and some of the time you wont. The only thing about statistics is that you can prove pretty much anything.... http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/D1/march.html If you can't be bothered to click the link, you'll see that top of the form league for March is that little club in deepest Hertfordshire. And three of the bottom four on March form are Forest Swansea Cardiff [the third worst club, to put that form into context is Coventry] Of course past performance is no guide to the future. We've got a chance....
I think we're going to finish on 74 points, and for me there's no way in hell that 6 teams will get more then that.
Pretty compelling last 4 games .. top eh! I really prefer to look at last 8 games form... makes us 10th http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/D1/oform.html run in form make us 9th http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/D1/runin.html However is we improve on run in form.. which we really should do.... as we have had a dip which is evident in the matches prior to the last 4... AND one or two of the run in form games take a little dip.. e.g Hull, Portsmouth... AND Forest continue to dip. .... then it comes down to Burnley and/or Cardiff falling away. We do have to stay abreast with Burnley. Then the matches: Saturday, 19 March 2011 Npower Championship Middlesbrough v Watford, 15:00 we need to draw Saturday, 2 April 2011 Npower Championship Coventry v Watford, 15:00 we need to win/draw Saturday, 9 April 2011 Npower Championship Watford v Hull, 15:00 we need to win Tuesday, 12 April 2011 Npower Championship Watford v Norwich, 19:45 we need to win or draw Saturday, 16 April 2011 Npower Championship Leeds v Watford, 15:00 we need to draw Saturday, 23 April 2011 Npower Championship Watford v Barnsley, 15:00 we need to win Monday, 25 April 2011 Npower Championship Leicester v Watford, 15:00 we need to draw/win Saturday, 30 April 2011 Npower Championship Watford v QPR, 15:00 we need to draw Saturday, 7 May 2011 Npower Championship Preston v Watford, 12:45 we need to draw thats 15-18 points which is a total 0f 71-74 points... CAN WE DO IT?? I guess we take each match at a time....
I think that if we can keep Danny scoring/not injured, and keep the defence intact and playing well, then we have a chance. Is it just me, or have we suddenly started playing really well with Jenkins and Eustace in the side, with Cowie and Bucko out wide. Even Deeny's impressed me recently, especially when out of position. I think what will really decide it is what Malky says to them in the dressing room. If he can keep this spirit up, it may just decide it.
Funnily enough almost everyone seems to have us getting 70 to 74 points. I suppose that is not surprising as 70 points is the 1.5 points per game we have got all season and 74 is 2 points per game that QPR - or a top side on a decent run in would get. 74 points may or may not be quite enough to get us there this year as the bottom 3 have an unusually low points total ( 39 points could see you safe this year) so the top six target is higher. It is down to whether we can have a "special" run in - how about starting with another 7 win run
