Of the 27 races at the Cheltenham Festival, the bookmakers' best chance of finishing on top for the week usually comes in the 11 handicap events, all of which are likely to be run at their maximum field sizes. But with the markets still in an early stage of development, there are good opportunities for punters with the publication on Thursday of the entries for those races. Unlike the betting for the big races, which have been under way for months and in some cases have changed little since the start of the year, bookies are still feeling their way with the handicaps. There are three obvious stages at which punters may want to get involved in the ante-post markets for the handicaps. The first comes now with confirmation of the entries. Next week the publication of the weights helps paint a clearer picture as to how the BHA handicappers have assessed the Irish entries. Then, nearer to the Festival, comes the important offer from fixed-odds bookmakers to accept bets on a "non-runner, no bet" basis, making thorny issues such as multiple entries a lot easier to handle. Not sure which race your fancy will go for? No matter. Back them for both. Over 1,000 names figure among the entries for the handicaps. You will have your favourites which you will want to look out for. I know I've got mine. Here are five suggestions to get us started. 1: Deal Done (Dessie Hughes): 25-1 Kim Muir and Byrne Group Plate Junior's 24-length victory in last year's Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Chase was no fluke, but the margin of his success was helped by the way in which Irish hope Deal Done set off at such a savage pace. Wearing a visor for the first time, he bounded along in front and looked for a while as if he wouldn't come back to the field until signs of distress started to appear after a mistake at the fourth-last fence. He hasn't been seen since leading to two out in the Irish Grand National the following month, but it's good to see his name among the entries for Cheltenham and he looks likely to give his backers a good run for their money again. 2: Our Father (David Pipe): 7-1 Pertemps Final and 10-1 Coral Cup Looks short enough in the betting purely on his form, but is also just the sort of horse who could go off a hot favourite for his chosen target if the rumours about the regard in which he is held at home prove true. An entry in the World Hurdle gives a clue as to what he is thought capable of and, despite a huge 19lb hike in the weights for beating Shoreacres at Ascot in December, we surely haven't seen all that this horse is capable of after just four starts over hurdles. 3: Triolo D'Alene (Nicky Henderson): Pulteney Novice Handicap Chase and Festival Plate The winner of chases in the French provinces in October and November, Triolo D'Alene presumably cost connections as a proven quality chaser with his novice status still intact, but he could hardly have made a more impressive British debut than when beating Ackertac at Ascot last month. He travelled effortlessly, came straight back on the bridle after a couple of jumping mistakes, and got the job done when asked to stretch ahead in the home straight. He'll need to jump better at Cheltenham, but his rating of 136 has been preserved in order to keep him qualified for the novice race (0-140) and he wouldn't be the first horse to come from France with a handicap mark that seriously underestimates his true ability. 4: Argocat (Tom Taaffe): 16-1 Fred Winter Hurdle Now we start to get a little more adventurous. A talented horse for Paul Cole and Tom Tate on the Flat despite, like a few sons of the mercurial Montjeu, looking to have a few of his own ideas, he was retained by the Hay family at the end of the season but sent to Tom Taaffe, a trainer enjoying a revival this season after a couple of virus-ravaged years sent him back to square one. Under Taaffe's care, Argocat has taken steady steps forward in three starts over hurdles, winning tidily at Thurles last month having previously finished third to subsequent Grade One runner-up Shadow Catcher. He is still in the Triumph Hurdle, but must have a better chance in the handicap. Most importantly, he looks sure to appreciate better ground having raced only in testing conditions in Ireland. 5: Lie Forrit (Willie Amos): JLT Speciality Handicap Chase I can't pretend to know whether this race is the intended target for Lie Forrit, but surely connections would be fools not to think about it. His star has dimmed slightly having met defeats on his last two starts, but both results came in three-runner races that were never going to be run to provide a suitable test of stamina for a horse who thrives on an end-to-end gallop. As a consequence of those ordinary efforts, his chase mark has been put in at 10lb lower than his hurdles rating but there's absolutely no reason why Lie Forrit can't be just as effective over fences. It's only a couple of years since this horse was sent off favourite to beat the likes of Tidal Bay and Time For Rupert in the Cleeve Hurdle. With course form already in the book, he could be a fascinating contender if allowed to take his chance.
Get ripping up your Simonsig Supreme vouchers fellas. With the big horse (Fingal Bay) looking out of the Neptunes Simonsig will now surely take his chance in it. He'd have a reasonable chance though I suspect Boston Bob will be good enough to make him work for it...
Welcome OB! Hunting through the Supreme Novice. I've got one that I likethat might be running on Saturday, called Agent Archie from the McCain yard. Highly progressive last season on the flat, made a promising start over hurdles with a very good win over subsequent 120+ winner Ingleby Spirit, and who also ran 4th in a really good handicap off a mark of 134. Agent Archie won very nicely from him and is a horse I think might actually relish the hill. Snuck under the radar nicely and if he runs as well as I think he can on Saturday in the Grade 2 Dovecote Novice hurdle at Kempton, then he ought to be Supreme bound. As far as I am aware, McCain is short of real chances in the Supreme, but I think this might be one who is an improving type. If he wins like I think he can on Saturday, then he is my Supreme horse. He was eased down and looked as if he'd prefer the left handed track at Cheltenham judged by the way AP tried to straighten him up going right handed at Kempton on the home turn.
Thanks for the welcome. Does anyone have an idea whether fickle fortune will be running in the bumper. I thought she was impressive on debut ( not sure what she beat though) and Noel Meade seemed quite impressed, I saw a quote saying 'she's very very very good and I men very very very good'. Not sure whether he often talks like this about one of his or not though? Any info/ideas appreciated.
OB- Fickle Fortune is scheduled to run in a bumper at Naas on Sunday Not sure if all the field will line up but she is up against Ante-Post favourite Champagne Fever. according to the entries as they stand. http://www.attheraces.com/card.aspx?raceid=687790&meetingid=&date=2012-02-26&ref=form&refsite= Impressive debut, but this race will be more informative. Not sure I could be having a 4 Y O filly winning the Champion Bumper, but one to follow perhaps for me.
Thanks TC, could be an interesting race on Sunday if they both turn up. It was more what Meade said about her that caught my eye but like I said not sure if he is one for over hyping his horses! Possibly the aintree mares race is more likely than Cheltenham, guess we will know more after Sunday.
I've been waiting for him to reappear for ages Toppy - has been declared a couple of times then pulled, which makes me think he has had some niggles. All feels a bit late in the day for me but he is a nice sort.
He's an admirable sort Tam and certainly has a chance. Would have liked to see him have a recent outing though. My money is already down on Tetlami though - looks highly likely Simonsig will go to the Neptune and AP will be on Darlan so I think Barry Geraghty will be on Tetlami. I like how the Henderson yard are being low key on this one ........................
Ref the bumper I got some 20/1 about Champagne Fever before his win a few weeks ago BUT I was very, very impressed by John Ferguson's New Year's Eve last weekend. They way he brushed aside a good previous winner in Swinging Sultan was most impressive and he showed real acceleration in the home straight. I think he may well be the one I am backing on the day Colin Tizzards Royal Guardsman has also looked impressive but they may all be fighting for the places if Sir Johnson turns up.
Morning all, Fists of Fury is expected to go very close in the NH Challenge Cup, 4m for amateurs. Anyone fancying it should take the little 14s left as the money is really starting to come now. Word of caution: Sticky boi reckons Universal Soldier will win this event it wont though LOL
I'm a big fan of this one but I have a nagging doubt that he will can work in a big field. He's looked very impressive in small field sthis season (and very unlucky at Ascot with Ted Spread behind) but in a big Supreme field going hell for leather can he settle and find the gaps at the right time ? He was beaten a long way in the Bumper after all (though as a 4yo some forgiveness here). I like the horse, I want to back him, but I have doubts....
just had for me a large wager on swincombe flame in the mares race.16 with skybet, 14 with vc. I know quevega's another parish but never be scared of one horse. she's only 8 with bet365 and I think she'll be nearer 9-2 on the day.
Cheers RV That might call for a re-think then. He hasn't got a jockey booked at the moment so maybe he won't be running at all? I hope he does, but I suppose he would have to be very impressive to get in the Supreme. Just realised that Cinders & Ashes was a McCain horse, keep forgetting that, so he'll have to be good I guess. Anyone know if he is likely to turn up tomorrow?
Think this looks sound. She's very progressive and has very little to find, if anything, with the others. Voler La Vedette goes for the World Hurdle, Our Girl Salley is by no means certain to travel (unless somebody has heard otherwise). That leaves horses like Kentford Grey Lady (wants 3m), Violin Davis (limited), Alasi (limited), Dare To Doubt (unlikely runner I'd have thought) and Baby Shine (don't think she'll run). As such I, like Chesney, can see her going of 2nd favourite for this in either a very weak field or a very small field, or both. Nick Williams has put her up as his Charity Bet in this EW which must signal both intent to run and some degree of confidence about her chance. As such 14/1 with Victor Chandler would appear a sound EW investment. She looks to hold very solid place claims, is an intended runner, and, God forbid, should anything happen to Quevega then suddenly she is favourite material. Obviously that scenario might mean Voler La Vedette is re-routed from the World Hurdle but then the situation is the same, except that the favourite is that bit weaker/more vulnerable. Stick, what's the latest?
According to McCain in The Times today, Agent Archie will run in the Dovecote and then probably wait for Aintree.
Happy and fingers firmly crossed that Simonsig goes for the Neptune, have covered the bet with a nice win on Boston Bob at 9/2. With Boston appearing to be going for the Neptune I am even happier with my 20s about Sea of Thunder Again though have covered the bet with an EW on Mount Benbullen at 10s. As much as i love Oscar Whiskey and have championed him for the last 2 years I just do not believe he will totally see out the 3m at the festival so have had a nice bet on Dynaste in the without Big Bucks market. Finally, as I have stated on several occasions the trickiest even this year will be the Supreme! Having Prospect Wells at 25s EW I have taken some 16s EW about Tetlami just in case Henderson sends him in this direction.
