Ante-Post Arrows: The 10 week run-up to The Cheltenham Festival 2012

If you've backed him now, you pretty much have to be! haha.

I am going to remain staunchly against Binocular! Willie Mullins would be laughing if Binocular was the best the English have against Hurricane Fly (he's probably laughing anyway, but still).

The Kingwell was good, but surely all things considered we have to expect Celestial Halo to be below form at the moment. Binocular hurdled well - better than I expected. But......in for a penny, in for a pound.

1. Hurricane Fly
2. Zarkandar
... empty space ...
3. Rock on Ruby

I think after Kempton at Christmas I'd have had Rock on Ruby to reverse form with Binocular - I see no reason why that shouldn't still be possible.

 

I put a bet on Boxing Day for Kauto Star to the King George/Gold Cup double at 20/1

I have also got 20/1 on the current champions of the big 4 races to retain their crowns, so if Hurricane Fly, Sizing Europe and Big Bucks all win I am going to be pretty happy come Gold Cup day!

 

I know what you mean and that thought very much occurred to me at the time. However, I think the Kingwell run showed he was in good form physically. It wasn't who he beat but how he travelled and jumped, and McCoy's comments afterwards. With the doubts about Grandouet, now confirmed as a non-runner, 8/1 seemed too big a price given that he looked to be returning to form.

I have now established an extensive and, if I might say so myself, pretty decent looking antepost book for the Champion Hurdle. The withdrawals of Spirit Son and Grandouet from the race might have done it little good as a spectacle but have helped my book no end.

Hurricane Fly at 3/1 2pts Win
Zarkandar at 8/1 1pt EW
Binocular at 8/1 1pt EW
Thousand Stars at 33/1 0.5pts EW

The only two dangers I haven't got covered are Oscars Well and Rock On Ruby. I strongly considered adding Rock On Ruby to the party in the without Hurricane Fly market at 15/2 EW last night but decided against it, largely because I already seem to be fairly strongly represented in the race.

 

my nap for the festival by the way is Sprinter Sacre, best NH horse I have seen in ages

 

Notice that Rock On Ruby is still available at 15/2 in the without Hurricane Fly market with William Hill. Wouldn't put anybody off a little bit of that EW.

 

A see of blue for Simonsig on Oddschecker for the . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Neptune. Also shortening on Betfair.

Decision made? Certainly a possibility. He's now shorter for the Neptune despite the stronger opposition.

 

Fingal Bay is really weak on Betfair for the Neptune and now out to clear third favourite behind Boston Bob and Simonsig. Only £9 in total waiting to back him. Anybody know anything?

 

Interesting Zen, they scrubbed him from the Albert Bartlett yesterday so (as far as I know) the Neptune is his only entry...

 

He's been trading at 9/2 or 5/1 for however long and now there is somebody willing to lay 7/1, then when that is matched put some more back up again. All looks very fishy to me.

 

Betfair do populate alot of the prices themselves which is why it always makes me laugh when they claim not to be bookmakers, they're an 'IT' company.

If someone hoovers up one side or the other they will often fill it with small amounts, though this is how the Binocular thing started last year, solid 11/4 shot getting laid as 7 and 8 on the 'fair clearly something wasn't right.

It may settle down, I'll be looking out for that tonight...

 

Certainly strange. Also no money wanting to back him in the place market, that's all been taken.

 

I've stirred up a storm on Twitter so something might come to light.

 

Apparently confirmed on ATR (I'm not watching) that Fingal Bay has suffered a small setback. Not definitely out of Cheltenham as yet but will know more in the morning.

 

Both Boston Bob and Simonsig into around 5/1 on Betfair. Fingal Bay last price matched was 20/1. Looking ominous for his supporters.

Hobbs is doing the Exeter Racecourse Preview tonight so should know more afterwards.

 

20s ?
He's out - a small drift of a few points and I'd understand but 20/1 about a horse who has been solid fav all Winter ???

 

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Hello all, first post!

Just to let you know that billy hills still have simonsig available at 11/2 to win any race at the festival, might be of interest as best price at the moment for the Neptune alone is 5s

 

Must have been just in time, they have suspended it now

 

A hamstring injury doesn't sound particularly promising it must be said.