I'm convinced CC won't run at Cheltenham - I'm pretty sure he'll be exposed as a big backward baby against crack Irish novices tomorrow. I expect AP to ride Darlan in the Supreme with Simonsig going to the Neptune and Barry Geraghty on my fella Tetlami
Exactly that. Really looking forward to seeing how he gets on because it should tell us a lot about where the British and Irish lot (who are running) stand.
Totally agree Gents. I think Captain Conan might get his arse kicked tomorrow and a serious lack of toe exposing him. The way the race pans out might be very informative though, so be sure to watch the race with interest, if you are not betting on it,
The market is starting to take shape now that most of the major players have had their prep runs. The meetings this coming weekend (particularly at Newbury, Sandown and Ascot) are likely to be the last chance for any great shake-ups in the betting. At the head of the betting we have Simonsig and Galileo's Choice, with both horses having won at long odds-on today. Whilst both did it as easily as their odds suggested they would, I think both still have huge question marks over them. Simonsig travels supremely well but has yet to show me he has a change of gears and can really accelerate. He looked one paced against Fingal Bay and he didn't do anything today to change that impression. I think he will go to the Neptune. Galileo's Choice beat absolutely nothing today and, for a Supreme Novice candidate, it is worrying that he was beaten by Sous Les Cieux in the Royal Bond, given that the Mullins horse is certainly no speedster. Neither horse does it for me. Next in the list is Jessie Harrington's Steps To Freedom who has not been seen since winning the Grade 2 Sharp Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham in November. The absence for me is a huge negative on stats - only Captain Cee Bee has overcome such a lengthy break to win the race in recent years - in fact only 2 winners since 1993 have not had a prep race less than 45 days prior to the race. That is a big stat to overcome. At 10/1 in most lists is Midnight Game, the first of 2 Pricewise selections for the race. This one could be seen as a "late developer" as he was also well beaten in the Roxal Bond by Sous Les Cieux. Since then he has won twice, a maiden on boxing day from Joxer (who has since been slammed by Trifolium) and then mid-Jan beating Dylan Ross. Dylan Ross has been mixing it in some of the top Irish novice hurdle races and, although not disgraced, he has finished close up in several and for me the overall form has a weak look to it. I can't therefore share Pricewise enthusiasm for this one. Just behind in the betting we have Cinders And Ashes from the Don McCain yard. He has been mopping up at the Northern tracks and looks a very decent novice. I'm just not convinced his form is as good as it looks at first glance - his Grade 2 win at Haydock (where he earnt his 142 rating) was a 3 runner affair on heavy ground and he beat runners from the Twiston-Davies and Henderson yard who are surely nowhere near the top dogs in those yards. Not quite good enough would be my assessment. Next in most lists in Charlie Longsdon's Vulcanite, the second Pricewise selection. He made his hurdling debut on Boxing Day at Kempton and travelled very strongly before being outpointed by Tetlami and followed that effort with a facile success at Southwell against vastly inferior animals. He clearly has talent and potential but I simply cannot have him reversing the form with Tetlami. Trifolium comes next and for me he is the strongest Irish challenger. He has progressed steadily over 6 races this winter and lost nothing in defeat to So Young in January. He confirmed his well-being in a Grade 2 Novice Hurdle last time out with a very easy win (Joxer 4th beaten 18 lengths) and will very likely be the number 1 Gigginstown horse in the race. We then have 2 Henderson horses, Darlan and Tetlami. Darlan will most likely be the mount of AP McCoy (being McManus owned) and he got off the mark at Kempton before making very heavy weather of following up at Cheltenham. He took a class 3 last time out at Taunton in rather cheeky fashion and is still entered in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury on Friday. If he doesn't run there and goes straight to Cheltenham I'm afraid he falls into the "lack of a recent run" stat. Just behind Darlan in the betting is another Henderson runner, Tetlami, and he is my strong fancy for the race. A dual bumper winner, including the traditionally strong "High Sherriff of Gloucestershire" bumper at Cheltenham on New Year's Day 2010 (where he powered up the hill), he missed the whole of last season through injury and was allowed to go off at 8/1 on hurdling debut at Sandown against Black Thunder, Knight Pass and Tante Sissi. But having come to the lead over the last he powered up the Sandown hill to score by 5 lengths. Tetlami then went to Kempton on Boxing Day for a Class 2 Novice Hurdle where his rivals included Plenty Pocket from the Nicholls yard and Vulcanite as mentioned above. I remember at the time everyone raving about how well Vulcanite travelled durong the race but to be fair Barry Geraghty was also motionless until they entered the straight and when Tetlami was asked to go and win his race he did it very professionally. Vulcanite was an experienced flat horse who ran off 103 in some very good flat races, and had clearly been well schooled. He didn't run green and didn't miss any of his hurdles, so I find it hard to believe he is going to have come on massively for the run and for me Tetlami held him well. Tetlami then had a pipe-opener last week in a jumpers bumper and showed a nice turn of foot to put the race to bed. On official ratings he is top rated in the field off 149. Next in the betting is Colour Squadron and he for me is a bit of an enigma. He has put in a couple of good performance but was also alarming in the Tolworth and I think his overall form level is a bit below some of the other principals here. We then get into the second tier with some "will they or won't they" horses and I'd be surprised if the winner isn't from the first 10 in the betting. If Simonsig goes to the Neptune then I assume Barry Geraghty will ride Tetlami with McCoy on Darlan. The 16/1 still available for Tetlami still offers good value IMHO because he is officially the top-rated horse in the race, he has course form has already stormed up the hill in that bumper. He has had the recent run and seems to have crept under the radar with his more exuberant stablemate Simonsig grabbing the limelight. The Irish challenge looks limited this time around and I think Tetlami can take it for the home team.
Simonsig 10.5 for Supreme, 9.6 for Neptune as we look on Betfair right now. What a punting nightmare this is now Galileos Choice v.well backed on the back of a nice win today. Have warmed to Tetlami to be fair Oddy, very uncomplicated, good turn of foot, nothing wrong with its form. Just worry that he will run very well and finish 4th of 5th- its that sort of race. Looking at Simonsig again today- he didn't strike me as this speedy horse he is made out to be. Enthusiastic yes, but I don't know if he has the turn of foot? I think he'd have to win it similar to Al Ferof winning it last season.
Backed him e/w Toppy and tbh there isn't a Fingal Bay or Boston Bob in the field - it's very open. Maybe I need to study those 2nd tier horses for something unexposed. I still think Prospect Wells can run a nice race if Nicholls can get him there ....................
Simonsig looks to be very useful as everyone thought but i still cannot have him winning the supreme, hopefully BJG will get his way and he will head to the Neptune
I am hoping that the defection of Last Instalment will lead Mullins to send Sir Des Champs to the RSA Chase now. Gigginstown also have First Liuetenant but I have to say that as much as Cheltenham form does strengthen his claim, he has not looked so good a chaser as people may have hoped and I think Sir Des Champs, who shapes like he will stay and generally jumps well, also has the Cheltenham form and I think it would be odd if he did not get his chance in the Grade 1 event given his exploits so far this season. Can I also add though what a great shame that Last Instalment won't be going- a superb jumper, he really is. I am genuinely disappointed for you Oddy because he deserved his chance- though connections didnt seem at all keen on the ground for Cheltenham.
Today Simonsig travelled so strongly that Barry Geraghty kept having to check his momentum. I can't believe that he would lack for pace in the Supreme because he looked like he would be much happier travelling at a faster pace today. If you doubt he has a turn of foot I refer you to his Champion Point to Point Bumper win. At Sandown he fell in a hole after travelling all over Fingal Bay, it wasn't that he was one-paced, it was that he didn't get home that day. Henderson told me that there was a reason (though was very coy about what it was) why he didn't win that day. He said it with a smile so I've no idea what he knows! He clearly has bags of pace, and will probably stay in the Neptune too. I can't say I mind too much which race he runs in because I think he has an outstanding chance in either. I think your assessment of Tetlami is about right Toppy. He is a thoroughly likeable and decent animal but just doesn't quite have the X factor which would win him a race such as this. He'd be a banker to run a nice race but I'd be very surprised if there weren't at least a few in front of him. Agree with everything you say in regard to the others Oddy. My hope for today would be that I knew which race Simonsig would run in so I could start getting properly stuck in. It seems Henderson is still happy to have splinters in his arse for a little while longer.
As am I. I think he deserves his chance at least. Also sorry for you Oddy. I know you've been keen on Last Instalment for a while now.
I thought Galileo's Choice was the more impressive of all the runners today. Never came off the bridle and sauntered clear. Really impressive.
He did nothing more than Simonsig for me. He did jump well in the main though and would have a chance in the Supreme.
I find it highly unlikely that Nicky Henderson would give people the proverbial keys to the betting castle on an open day lads so i'm taking everything he's said to Zen with a large pinch of salt. Sorry tp be quite forthright with that one Zen. Nothing against you I just think with Needles reputation I don't understand why he'd get so talkative to you lot when his track record is to pull the wool over the public's eyes.
True Quel, Henderson is a crook, Simonsig has no chance in the Neptune. Might run a race in the Supreme but no way he would beat Boston Bob or Fingal Bay over 2m5 at Cheltenahm. Henderson has been telling people hes a cert for the neptune so he can lay it for more and then run in the supreme no wonder he was smiling
Taken some 65s for Mono Man on Betfair. He returns next week! His form stacking up very well after Colour Squadron almost beat them all off before falling again today. If he is fit and well and wins in decent style next week, he ought to be considered for the Supreme- after all Henderson did throw 3 at it last season.
I've struggled with novice hurdlers all year which is probably why I haven't looked at the Supreme in any real depth, but I now found myself unable to avoid the curtain raiser anymore so spent most of Sunday night looking for fragments of diamonds in a mountain of rocks in the form book. Many in here will be way ahead of me on this race so I'll throw it out there, Balder Success. 4 year olds have a poor record in this but Binocular came within a length or so of winning a few years ago and I like the look of this ones profile. Hacked up on the bridle beating Captain Sunshine who had previously run Mountbazon (one of the leading fancies for this ?) to 4.75 lengths in a bumper receiving 8lb, Alan Kings horse seems to have plenty of talent but hasn't been aksed any serious questions yet, so can the more knowledgeable forumites tell me why I should steer clear of this one ?
