1.05 Leopardstown Asaid 14/1 I think John Ferguson's 4 year old is a very interesting contender tomorrow and I fancy him to run well at what I view is a price that is much too big. Previously a decent flat horse for Saeed Bin Suroor, Asaid made his first and only start over hurdles for John Ferguson at Huntingdon last month where he ran out victorious on debut. Although only winning by 2L, the front 2 draw 26L clear of the remainder and it appeared he had a fair bit left in the engine. The form of that juvenile hurdle has worked out very strongly. The 2nd One Lucky Lady won by 20L on her only subsequent start beating the 3rd that day which solidifies the form. Furthermore, the 4th and 5th were wide margin winners on their only subsequent starts and Crafty Roberto, who fell that day when well beaten and who reopposes tomorrow, has won his only start since also. On the basis of that evidence it looks far above an average race and certainly was a very nice debut performance. Current trainer John Ferguson has made an unbelievable start to his training career and is operating at a strike rate of 38% this season. Tomorrow Asaid makes his first foray out of England as he attempts to land his first Grade 1 prize tomorrow. One of the main reasons Ferguson has been so successful has been his placement of horses and with a very talented string of horses to compare Asaid to I am sure Ferguson would not be sending Asaid over here unless he was sure he could go very close. Barry Geraghty is an extremely eye catching jockey booking as he is one of the best in the business and is another indication to me of the chances of this 4 year old on what will be only his 2nd start. Favourite Ut De Sivola and fellow English raider Countrywide Flame probably set the standard so far but with a lot of things in his favour I am certainly willing to have a go at what seems far too big a price. 2.10 Leopardstown Burn and Turn 25/1 Going to take a chance on Jessie Harringtonâs 6 year old mare that I have been following for a while. Burn and Turn went straight into my notebook in May of last year when she was very, very impressive when landing a bumper at Punchestown. She showed a phenomenal turn of pace when asked to quicken that day as she scooted clear to win by 9L although it could easily have been more. The form of that bumper race is unbelievably strong with 8 of the horses in behind winning subsequently, including 4 who have won at least twice. After that and after a 5 month break Burn and Turn disappointed in a similar event at the same track but she really didnât seem to like the heavy ground and I am willing to discount that run. Burn and Turn made her hurdling debut in a Grade 3 event at Navan over 2m back in November where she put in what I thought was a very promising debut to finish a staying on8.5L beaten 3rd, with the winner Il Fenomeno reopposing tomorrow on 4lb worse terms. I think that Burn and Turn will be able to reverse the form of that race based on a number of reasons. Il Fenomeno had already made 4 starts over hurdles and Burn and Turn is certainly entitled to get closer with a couple of hurdling runs under her belt. Furthermore, the 4lb weight difference as well as the 2f further, which I think should ideally suit Burn and Turn, lead me to think that she certainly has enough in her locker to finish in front of that rival. On her latest and 2nd start over hurdles Burn and Turn emerged victorious 2 weeks ago at Leopardstown in a 2m maiden hurdle. On ground again that was probably softer than ideal, Burn and Turn stuck to her task well to win by 2.75L. It wasnât that impressive visually and the margin of victory wasnât great either but she beat what was put in front of her and it at least got her off the mark. Tomorrow represents a big step up in class as she tackles Grade 1 Company for the 3rd time but Jessie Harrington is one of the shrewdest judges around and she wouldnât be running unless she felt she had a chance of landing this. Sous Les Cieux and Cash and Go set the standard tomorrow and are very solid benchmarks and Nicky Hendersonâs raider Captain Conan was successful in a Grade 1 on debut for the yard and could be anything but I donât think anything in this race is overly special. The current yielding ground should suit a lot more than her victory on soft LTO with her impressive bumper win coming on good ground and I think the extra 2f will be ideal. Although its a bit annoying only 2 places are paid, I think she is overpriced at 25/1. Jessie Harrington is in absolutely belting form at the moment and if replicating the form of her bumper win last year I can see her going very close. The excellent Robbie Power takes the ride and if sheâs as talented as I think she is hopefully she can cause a bit of a shock and win this.
15.45 Leopardstown- China Rock- 5/1 He is the highest rated runner in the field and it is worth remembering that he showed some quality form in the first half of last season. The race has been weakened over the last few days following the defections of Synchronised, Quito De La Roque and Jessies Dream and this could leave the way clear for China Rock to claim a first success at this level. Andrew Lynch's mount will need to improve on the form he showed when fourth in this race last year and he has yet to run over fences this season. However, there was a good deal of encouragement to be taken from China Rock's comeback run over hurdles at Punchestown last month when he was fourth to Ipsos Du Berlais. That was his first run since he picked up an injury when pulling up in last season's Cheltenham Gold Cup and he is sure to have improved for that outing. In addition the ground at Leopardstown (yielding to soft) will be better than what China Rock encountered in this race last year and that will aid his cause. The nine-year-old won his first two starts last season, and an excellent third behind Kauto Star and Sizing Europe at Down Royal offered connections plenty of encouragement for the spring. But after being well beaten in a heavy ground Hennessy 12 months ago, he was pulled up after suffering an injury in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. He ran creditably on his belated seasonal return in a hurdle race at Punchestown last month, and with significant improvement anticipated, Morris is confident of a big run. "He'd definitely have a chance," said the Fethard handler. "The ground is yielding, which should be all right. He handled the softer ground in Punchestown all right the last day - as he's got older he's maybe handling the ground a bit better. If he can match those performances of the first outings over the last 2 years he will be able to mount a strong challenge.
14.10- Leopardstown Captain Conan- 5/2 Backed him when he made a bright start to his career with Nicky Henderson when winning last month's Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown @ 9/1. He can do better still and is a major contender but this looks a tougher assignment.
16.20- Leopardstown Vic Venturi- 3/1 Vic Venturi warms up for possible tilts at hunter chases at Cheltenham and Aintree with a run at Leopardstown on Sunday. The 12-year-old takes on 16 rivals in the Raymond Smith Memorial Hunters Chase, on the back of wins in two Irish point-to-points. Trainer Dessie Hughes has the John Smith's Fox Hunters' Chase at Aintree in April as the gelding's main objective. If he can run close to his best on his return to the track he should take plenty of beating.
15.00 - Exeter Montbazon -15/8 Alan King's Montbazon can set himself up for a crack at the Supreme Novices' Hurdle with a victory at Exeter on Sunday. The Devon track will be slightly disappointed that one of their main races has only attracted six runners but the Molson Coors Novices' Hurdle is still a competitive little affair. Nicky Henderson's Molotof has apparently benefited from being set some stiff tasks last season and has rattled off a three-timer this term, although this looks much tougher. And Nick Williams' Urbain De Sivola looked imperious when beating a decent field at Newbury. However, Montbazon has always been held in the highest regard by King and is now beginning to fulfil his potential. Having won a valuable bumper at Doncaster he was then touched off by Steps To Freedom at Aintree in the Grade Two, with that one now favourite for the Supreme. Only third on his seasonal return he came back with sore shins but he stepped up on that when just a length behind Colour Squadron, arguably the moral winner of the Tolworth Hurdle. He did not need to come off the bridle at Plumpton last time out and while this will not be as easy, he is the one to beat.
Ut De Sivola and Cash And Go Id give you 100/1 Asaid, horse is an arsechaser and the form is a mile off in here, Dougie Costello wont be winning, its between the top 3 in the betting, the main danger is probably Shadow Catcher but Ut De Sivola is a 6/4 shot in my book, I think he will have too many gears for them and 5/2 looks a nice bet.
How is the 2nd, 4th, 5th and horse who fell all winning on their next and only starts a mile off? I'll take the 100/1 if your offering
16.10 Exeter- Cedre Bleu - 9/4 One from my tracker, Walkon is clearly the horse to beat here if returning to the form of his course and distance defeat of Zaynar over course and distance in December. This horse battled back well when beating Bellvano at Newbury LTO over 2m1F. Apparently he was going to run him in the rescheduled Scilly Isles before Newbury was abandoned, but this looks a good opportunity for him, too. Im sure he will have improved since Newbury, fitness and experience wise, and this race will tell us where hes stand with a view to a possible run at Cheltenham looking very likely if runs well tomorrow!
The second beat the 3rd who went onto get beat 30 odd lengths in a poor handicap off 102, the 4rth horse won a Plumton handicap off 100, the 5th horse was getting beat by a 115 horse when left in front at the last and Crafty Roberto was in the process of getting beat 30 lengths easy when Kings fell 2 out I think. Were talking about a serious Triumph horse in Ut De Sivola, Asaid has a mountain to climb before you even consider the horses temperament.
3.10 Leopardstown.Baby Whizz is one of the favourites (7/1-8/1) but was beaten over 3 lengths by Dur Ar An Ol (20/1 Bet365)- and is now 8lbs worse off with that horse. However , the selection has to be the lightly weighted Cavite Beta who gave 7lbs and just mastered the consistent Slew Charm on his solitary run this season. Given that Slew Charm gave 12 lbs to Dur Ar An Ol - and finished 2.5 lengths behind him in a late October handicap at Naas, JIm Dreaper's horse would seem to be off a very favourable weight- and unexposed. Cavite Beta- Best price currently is only 8/1 with the bookies, but Betfair are trading just now at 11.5/1 and about 19/10 a place. I think his win price will contract but his place price is nothing special. Worth a punt.
This did make me chuckle Wooly. Some good looking stuff tomorrow which will make a nice change. Will try to get on to post some thoughts tomorrow.
How can you completely discount a horse who won on its only start? Won with a fair bit in hand and the 2nd won by 20L on its only subsequent start. Is bound to improve and Ferguson is too shrewd to send one over here that hasn't a chance. Could easily be outclassed but to say completely discount his chances is stupid. I'll gladly take some of the 100/1 your offering, and I guessing many others on this forum would too.
lol, yea I will hopefully get on tomorrow afternoon too. Its just visitor after visitor at mine at the mo, veeryone wanting to see the little one! 1st good days racing for over a week, hopefully I wont miss too much! But at last! Some good jump racing. One question tho, why do all good irish cards happen on sundays??
Obviously you can never completely discount anything but I just dont think he is up to the class, the second horse won by 20 lengths next time, but it beat a horse who it had previously finished 26 lengths in front of, a horse who went on to get beat 30+ lengths off 102. That is not Triumph hurdle form, maybe the horse has become a different horse over hurdles but from what I seen of it on the flat, I wouldnt fancy him in a finish and I just cant see him being anywhere near good enough to go and beat the best Irish Juveniles on their own patch. Id say his true odds are about 33/1 but I hope he runs a good race for you.
I don't understand your logic. The 2nd One Lucky Lady won hard held by 20L on his next start. Who cares if the 3rd, who finished 20L beaten in 2 consecutive starts, finished well beaten off a mark of 102. Music on D Waters finished 37L behind Ut De Sivola and got beaten by 29L on his only other start in a Maiden. If thats how you read form Ut De Sivola should have no chance either.
I really like CEDRE BLEU 9-4 4.10 EXETER, I think this horse is already very smart and open to bags of improvement being only a 5yo. Getting 3lbs off Walkon isnt a great deal but I just think this horse will have come on bundles from his game defeat of Bellvano. The Lavelle pair CAPTAIN SUNSHINE and LE BEC are both strongly fancied to make up for dissapointments last time. Both confident selections.
Where do you think One Lucky Lady is in the Henderson pecking order? Ut De Sivola is Mullins Triumph horse, if you honestly think Asaid has a chance of turning it over in Ireland then you should take the 60s on betfair for the Triumph. Asaid will be off the bridle going backwards 5f out, when Ruby is just bringing Ut De Sivola into the race.
20/1 Asaid or Burn and Turn to finish in the first 4 50/1 Asaid and Burn And Turn to be beaten less than a combined distance of 12 lengths. 1000000/1 Asaid or Burn And Turn to win a Grade 1 at any time in their careers
